Fantasy Baseball Draft Outlook: Merrill Kelly, Clayton Kershaw, Josiah Gray (2024)

There isn’t a single perfect statistic for projecting future fantasy baseball performance. However, fielding independent pitching (FIP) minus earned run average (ERA) is an excellent jumping-off point for digging into lucky and unlucky performances from the previous season.

2023 Negative ERA Minus FIP Leaders

Merrill Kelly (ARI - SP) - 133.2 ADP

Merrill Kelly is a fascinating pitcher. The veteran hurler had a 3.37 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 3.86 xFIP and a 4.01 SIERA in 2022 before tallying a 3.29 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 3.83 xFIP and a 4.12 SIERA in 2023. Kelly's ERA and xFIP were similar, while his xERA and SIERA were worse in 2023.

However, Kelly issued more free passes (7.6 BB% in 2022 versus 9.6 BB% in 2023) to strike out batters at a higher rate (22.0 K% compared to 25.9 K%). Kelly threw his fastball at a career-low 41.4% rate in 2023 and used his slider at a career-high 5.5% rate, much higher than his previous high of 0.2% in 2022.

Kelly's slider had a 104 Stuff+ and 20.8 SwStr% last season. The 35-year-old righty's curve had an eye-catching 121 Stuff+. The curveball's 10.3 SwStr% wasn't spectacular but Kelly froze hitters when he threw it in the strike zone, netting just a 50.4 Z-Swing% against his Uncle Charlie.

Kelly's changeup had an underwhelming 99 Stuff+ last season. Nevertheless, it was a chase pitch, coaxing a 47.9 O-Swing% and 18.2 SwStr%. Kelly hasn't been a stranger to overperforming his ERA estimators, doing so regularly since returning stateside in 2019. It's best to lower expectations to roughly a 4.00 ERA. However, with his surge in strikeouts and a pitch-mix change to support the improvement he's a viable pick around his ADP.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) - 291.0 ADP

Clayton Kershaw shouldn't be drafted in almost any format. He had shoulder surgery in November. The southpaw won't be ready to pitch for an MLB team until at least August.

Josiah Gray (WSH - SP) - 299.5 ADP

Josiah Gray had a 5.48 ERA in 70.2 innings in 2021 and a 5.02 ERA in 2022. Last season, he had a 3.91 ERA. Unfortunately, Gray's sub-4.00 ERA was a complete fluke. The righty's 4.93 FIP was his best ERA estimator. All of his other ERA estimators were north of 5.00.

Gray's average fastball velocity fell from 94.5 MPH in 2022 to 93.4 MPH in 2023 and his CSW% has fallen from 28.5% in 2021 to 27.9% in 2022 and 25.9% in 2023. Gray's pitch-modeling info was also putrid last season. There's nothing in Gray's profile to support drafting him.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice: Players to Target