There isn’t a single perfect statistic for projecting future fantasy baseball performance. However, fielding independent pitching (FIP) minus earned run average (ERA) is an excellent jumping-off point for digging into lucky and unlucky performances from the previous season.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
2023 Negative ERA Minus FIP Leaders
Blake Snell (FA -SP) - 55.8 ADP
Blake Snell won the 2023 National League Cy Young Award after spinning a sparkling 2.25 ERA. Unfortunately, the veteran lefty is still a free agent and drastically overperformed his underlying data, starting with his FIP. As readers can see in the above table, Snell had the largest negative gap between ERA and FIP among qualified pitchers in 2023.
According to FanGraphs, Snell also had a 3.77 xERA, 3.62 xFIP and a 4.06 SIERA. The lefty's 13.3 BB% last season was the highest mark in his career. Furthermore, he had a 15.0 BB% and 4.39 SIERA in the second half. Snell's pitch modeling wasn't elite, either. He had a 107 Stuff+ but just a 95 Location+ and 100 Pitching+. Snell's ADP would be rich if he were on a team. It's unconscionable while he remains a free agent.
Kodai Senga (NYM - SP) - 62.8 ADP
Kodai Senga had a sub-3.00 ERA last season but none of his ERA estimators validated his 2.98 ERA. He had a 3.86 xERA, 3.77 xFIP and a 4.00 SIERA. Still, the veteran hurler had an encouraging first MLB season.
Moreover, Senga improved as the season went along. The righty whittled his 12.3 BB% in the first half to a 9.6 BB% in the second half. Fortunately, Senga's strikeout rate only slipped slightly - 29.5 K% to 28.6 K%. As a result, Senga had a 3.73 xFIP and a 3.88 SIERA in the second half.
The 31-year-old righty is being drafted a pinch too early. Still, his second-half ERA estimators are a reasonable barometer for his 2024 outlook. Senga is also an outstanding strikeout source and could exceed 180 innings after amassing 166.1 in 2023. Thus, Senga is a rock-solid pick if he falls into the 70-75 ADP range.
Justin Verlander (HOU - SP) - 115.8 ADP
Chris Bassitt (TOR - SP) - 120.6 ADP
Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt were included in my 10 Pitchers to Avoid Drafting article. Their underlying data last season was unflattering. While Verlander's ADP has correctly dropped approximately 14 picks, he's still overpriced. Inexplicably, Bassitt's ADP has climbed roughly 21 picks, making him an even easier starting pitcher to fade in fantasy baseball drafts.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice: Players to Target
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- 8 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
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- 5 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values to Target
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- 5 Second Basemen to Target
- 3 Undervalued Hitters to Draft
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- 6 Draft Values in AL-Only Leagues
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.