Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts: Kenley Jansen, Cristian Javier, Lucas Giolito (2024)

Players typically shouldn’t be avoided at all costs, and most of the following pitchers are worth drafting if they fall beyond their average draft position (ADP). The idea of this piece is to highlight pitchers overvalued enough that gamers should fade them in the proximity of their ADP. However, an opportunity cost exists for using a roster spot on a player. So, even though the last featured pitcher has a cheap ADP and name value, he’s a lousy selection in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.

Pitchers to Avoid

Kenley Jansen (BOS – RP) – 143.0 ADP

The end is near for Jansen. The former stud closer pitched only 44.2 innings in 51 appearances last season. The veteran closer had a career-high 4.61 xFIP, a career-low 22.6 GB%, a career-high 1.28 WHIP, a career-low 27.7 K% and a career-low 28.6 CSW%. He’s a ticking time bomb.

Cristian Javier (HOU – SP) – 150.5 ADP

Javier had good fortune as a starter and reliever for the Astros in 2021 before a more legitimate breakout in 30 appearances (25 starts) in 2022. Sadly, Javier couldn’t maintain momentum.

In 31 starts spanning 161.0 innings last season, he had a 4.56 ERA, 4.48 xERA, 5.16 xFIP, 4.76 SIERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.8 BB%, 23.1 K% and 25.2 CSW%. Javier’s swinging-strike rate plummeted from 13.8% in 2022 to 11.4% in 2023. He also had fewer looking strikes.

The bad news didn’t end there. According to FanGraphs, Javier had an average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.8 mph in 2023. Javier must strike out batters at a high rate and walk fewer hitters to make his extreme fly-ball approach (25.6 GB% in 2023) work. Until there are positive reports about Javier recapturing velocity on his fastball, he shouldn’t be drafted within the top 175 picks.

Lucas Giolito (BOS – SP) – 219.3 ADP

In 63 starts spanning 346.0 innings since 2022, Giolito has had a 4.89 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.0 BB%, 25.5 K%, 93 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 99 Pitching+ and 28.9 CSW%. If his pitch-modeling data weren’t dreadful, it would be easier to spin a story about Giolito’s ERA regressing to his ERA estimators.

Moreover, Giolito started for three organizations during that period, and his numbers worsened after he joined new clubs. Thus, a change of scenery is a tough sell for being the magic elixir, saying nothing of the hitter-friendly park factors at Fenway Park. Giolito isn’t worth wasting a roster spot on in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.