Players typically shouldn’t be avoided at all costs, and most of the following pitchers are worth drafting if they fall beyond their average draft position (ADP). The idea of this piece is to highlight pitchers overvalued enough that gamers should fade them in the proximity of their ADP. However, an opportunity cost exists for using a roster spot on a player. So, even though the last featured pitcher has a cheap ADP and name value, he’s a lousy selection in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.
Pitchers to Avoid
Dylan Cease (CWS – SP) – 90.3 ADP
Players typically shouldn’t be avoided at all costs, and most of the following pitchers are worth drafting if they fall beyond their average draft position (ADP). The idea of this piece is to highlight pitchers overvalued enough that gamers should fade them in the proximity of their ADP. However, an opportunity cost exists for using a roster spot on a player. So, even though the last featured pitcher has a cheap ADP and name value, he’s a lousy selection in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.
Pitchers to Avoid
Dylan Cease (CWS – SP) – 90.3 ADP
After a brilliant season in 2022, Cease’s production cratered in 2023. The righty’s 4.58 ERA was unlucky. Still, his 4.07 xERA, 4.08 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA weren’t anything to write home about. After consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate north of 30.0%, Cease had a 27.3 K% in 2023. Unfortunately, he also had a 10.1 BB%.
Cease gave up harder contact than in previous campaigns, and his 29.9 CSW% in 2022 slipped to 29.1 CSW% in 2023. Moreover, hitters stopped chasing pitches out of the strike zone as frequently (35.5 O-Swing% in 2022 and 31.6 O-Swing% in 2023) while attacking more pitches in the strike zone (67.9 Z-Swing% versus 70.4 Z-Swing%). Cease has too many red flags to warrant a top-100 pick.
Justin Verlander (HOU – SP) – 101.5 ADP
Verlander will turn 41 before the season. At first blush, the veteran righty’s 3.22 ERA in 2023 suggests he was able to defy Father Time. However, Verlander’s 3.69 xERA, 4.56 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA were signs of a substantial decline for the long-time ace.
Digging deeper is even more unflattering for Verlander. He had a 27.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 11.6 SwStr% and 26.5 CSW% in 2022 before slipping to a 21.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 9.9 SwStr% and 25.9 CSW%. It’s better to get out a year early than to be left holding the bag when a veteran pitcher has a cliff season. The warning signs for Verlander were there last year. Gamers should let someone else take a chance on Verlander for a near-top-100 choice.
Paul Sewald (ARI – RP) – 116.0 ADP
Sewald was rock solid last year. Unfortunately, his production eroded after he was traded to the Diamondbacks. In 20 appearances spanning 17.2 innings for Sewald on the Diamondbacks, he had a 3.57 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA, 1.47 WHIP, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K% and 24.9 CSW%.
He didn’t assuage concerns in the playoffs, either. In 10 appearances lasting 10.0 innings, Sewald had a 5.40 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 2.68 SIERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.7 BB% and 35.6 K%. Obviously, his walk and strikeout rates were better. Nevertheless, Sewald isn’t worth reaching 10-plus picks ahead of the next wave of closers.
Chris Bassitt (TOR – SP) – 141.3 ADP
Bassitt’s 3.60 ERA in 2023 was slightly worse than his 3.42 ERA in 2022. The gap between his ERA estimators was starker. Specifically, the veteran righty had a 3.46 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA in 2022 before posting a 4.04 xERA, 4.21 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA.
In addition, Bassitt’s velocity was down last season from 2022, and his bat-missing and called strikes suffered, with his 29.2 CSW% in 2022 declining to 28.0% in 2023. Bassitt has an unexciting profile filled with more downside than upside at this point in his career.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
