This past week, we revealed 10 players whose slumps led to lower fantasy numbers in 2023 than we can expect in 2024. This week, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and lay out 10 players who aren’t likely to duplicate their production from this past year. This doesn’t mean they’re undraftable at the right price. It means you shouldn’t take them anticipating a repeat performance.
Once again, we’ll look at five hitters and five pitchers. For each, we’ll start with their 2023 VBR, fantasy production, and four other stats that support an impending drop-off. If any of the terminologies is new to you, take a look at FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary for definitions. Here are 10 Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Success. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Seasons (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
2023 Hitter VBR: 20
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .268 | 101 | 28 | 86 |
| BB% | K% | BABIP | xBA |
| 5.3% | 25.8% | .325 | .254 |
Thomas ranked as the 20th-best fantasy hitter in 2023 thanks to stellar run production, 20 stolen bases and a decent average. The power and speed could repeat, but don’t expect him to hit .268. Thomas benefitted from a very high BABIP this past season and isn’t helped by a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. Expect his average to dip, which could also limit the runs he scores and stolen bases. He should be drafted as a third outfielder, not the top-10 outfielder he was in 2023.
2023 Hitter VBR: 24
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .330 | 95 | 22 | 78 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | xBA | xSLG |
| 17.7% | .367 | .301 | .479 |
Diaz is a very good hitter. He walks often, rarely strikes out and has a career 6.9% SwStr% – which is excellent. However, he will probably not hit .330 again, and 22 home runs are also unlikely. Diaz benefitted from a .367 BABIP in 2023, which took his average from around .300, a la his xBA, to a batting title. In addition, he hit eight homers more than his previous career high of 14, aided by a well above-average HR/FB ratio of 17.7%. Twelve of the 22 came in the season’s first two months, bolstered by another five in September. During the middle three months, he only mustered five dingers. In addition, Diaz lost 3B eligibility in many leagues, making him a middle-of-the-pack first baseman.
2023 Hitter VBR: 25
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .292 | 71 | 20 | 83 |
| BB% | K% | BABIP | xBA |
| 6.2% | 24.8% | .357 | .277 |
Lowe is young and broke out in a big way in 2023. On top of the numbers above, he stole 32 bases, which boosts his fantasy value. The concern is with his batting average. Lowe hit .292 in 2023 despite striking out approximately 25% of the time. He’s never been a high-average hitter, even in the minors. He profiles closer to a .250 hitter, though he may be able to generate more walks based on his history, which could keep his OBP in a decent place. Lowe is an interesting young player with upside, but given the risk and the Rays’ propensity for platoons, be wary of drafting him anywhere close to his 2023 VBR.
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