Every year we look at big second-half performances to determine if a player might be one to target for the following season. This year is no different. However, sometimes we should buy in, and other times we should pass on last year’s production. Below are some of the players who excelled in the second half of the 2023 campaign.
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
Notable 2023 Second-Half Fantasy Baseball Performances
Hitters
Kepler has been a favorite of mine for a long time, and I have been waiting for the breakout for years. We got it in the second half last year when he hit .306/.377/.549 with 12 home runs. The problem is it came with an unsustainable BABIP of .351. I do think there are 20-25 home runs in the bat, but the average likely isn’t close to .300 and probably much closer to .250. Still, his price is worth the gamble in case he can run hot again.
Crawford had a breakout second half in which he hit .282/.401/.492 with 11 home runs. That is pretty crazy considering that Crawford had never hit 10 home runs in an entire season. Unfortunately, there is not much support for this power surge outside of a change in launch angle. Even if Crawford keeps some of the homers, I do not think we will see anything close to his 2023 output.
Last year, I was touting Suzuki due to a solid second half. I thought he could carry it over. Sorry if I sound like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, but I am still a believer. Suzuki hit .313/.372/.566 with 13 home runs and five stolen bases in the second half of 2023. He makes good contact and hits the ball hard. All he needs to do is remain healthy.
Garver has always been pretty good on a per-plate-appearance basis, but he has struggled to stay healthy. Garver shouldn’t have to catch in Seattle this year with Cal Raleigh and Seby Zavala on the team. Garver can instead be the full-time DH, which should help keep him healthy. I think he could be a huge steal as a full-time player that has catcher eligibility.
Pitchers
Skubal returned from Tommy John surgery last July. After that, he was unbelievably good, throwing 72.1 innings of a 3.11 ERA and a .88 WHIP with 32% strikeout rate. He had the best fWAR for a pitcher in baseball during that time. Skubal has continued to impress in spring training, reportedly hitting 100 mph in a recent bullpen. Skubal has all the tools to be an elite starting pitcher this year. The only real questions are innings and health. I have him as a top-20 starter with no problem building my rotation around him.
Ragans had a brilliant second half after being traded to the Royals, throwing 71.2 innings of a 2.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with a 31% strikeout rate. I am actually a bit surprised that his ADP hasn’t jumped the way that Skubal’s has. Ragans has looked great in spring as well. I believe that the Royals are a better team than most do. Like Skubal, Ragans has injury risk, but he is also a top-20 starter for me.
Peralta threw 73.2 innings in the second half last year, posting a 2.81 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and league-best 36% strikeout rate. Like both Ragans and Skubal, Peralta has issues with health, but he also struggles with repeating his mechanics. That’s why he wasn’t nearly as good in the first half. Peralta also struggles with command at times which can lead to home runs. I think there is really interesting upside here, but I have Peralta a bit lower than Skubal and Ragans due to these added issues.
Kikuchi was great in the second half, throwing 74.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 27.6% strikeout rate. This is what many of us in the industry have been waiting for from Kikuchi, but I am skeptical that he can keep it up this year. His SIERA was 3.61 in the second half, and he can also struggle with repeating his mechanics. While he had better control, Kikuchi’s command can elude him, which leads to bad home-run problems. I worry that these will return and result in a truly bad season. I am lower on him than most.
Rodriguez struggled in the first half before being demoted. After returning to the bigs, he was excellent, logging 76.2 innings with a 2.58 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 24% strikeout rate. Rodriguez has a ton of potential, and there should be more strikeouts coming. He pitches in one of the best pitching environments and for a team that should win a ton of games. Rodriguez is a top-20 starter for me as well.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
- Justin Mason’s Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes to Avoid
- Philosophy of Fantasy Baseball by Kelly Kirby
- Guide to Punting Categories
- How to Approach Stolen Bases
- How to Better Avoid Injuries
- MLB League Trends & Impact on Fantasy Baseball Player Values
- Should You Draft a Pitcher in Round 1?
- Fantasy Baseball Position Scarcity Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Salary Cap Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Categories League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball OBP League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Value-Based Drafting Primer
- Fantasy Baseball H2H Categories vs. Points Leagues Draft Primer
- Players that Gain & Lose Value in Categories vs. Points Leagues
- Fantasy Baseball Roto vs. H2H Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Draft & Hold League Strategy & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Quality Starts Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Saves + Holds Leagues Draft Primer
- Second-Year Player Draft Primer: Hitters | Pitchers
- Spring Training Stats That Matter
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