This past week, we revealed 10 players whose slumps led to lower fantasy numbers in 2023 than we can expect in 2024. This week, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and lay out 10 players who aren’t likely to duplicate their production from this past year. This doesn’t mean they’re undraftable at the right price. It means you shouldn’t take them anticipating a repeat performance.
Once again, we’ll look at five hitters and five pitchers. For each, we’ll start with their 2023 VBR, fantasy production, and four other stats that support an impending drop-off. If any of the terminologies is new to you, take a look at FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary for definitions. Here are 10 Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Success. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Seasons (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
2023 Hitter VBR: 50
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .279 | 73 | 18 | 66 |
| xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% |
| .240 | .321 | 3.2% | 27.4% |
Friedl is a late bloomer who took advantage of his first opportunity as an everyday player last season. He stole 27 bases on top of the 18 homers and a robust .279 batting average. Unfortunately, Statcast isn’t a fan, as he doesn’t make good contact. His Barrel% and HardHit % were among the worst in MLB. Statcast indicates his batting average was highly inflated, as were his SLG% and wOBA. Fantasy managers should treat Friedl as a cheap source of stolen bases in 2024 drafts, not the player who had a higher VBR than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR), Manny Machado (3B – SB) and Bo Bichette (SS – TOR) in 2023.
2023 Hitter VBR: 63
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .250 | 71 | 31 | 98 |
| HR/FB | xBA | Barrel% | HardHit% |
| 16.9% | .226 | 5.9% | 28.3% |
Our final hitter is our third Ray (purely coincidental) and another slugger who came out of nowhere in 2023. How many people know that Paredes hit 31 HRs and drove in nearly 100 runs in 2023? Incredible! He was a diamond in the rough that helped many fantasy managers to league titles this past year. However, much like Friedl, he doesn’t make good contact, and unlike TJ, he’s not fast. Thus, his average could plummet from an already mediocre .250, making him a potential liability in fantasy lineups. Draft him as a multi-positional reserve with power, but don’t be surprised if he hits in the low .200s this year.
2023 SP VBR: 4
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 2.25 | 1.19 | 14 | 11.7 |
| BB% | BABIP | LOB% | xERA |
| 5.0% | .256 | 87% | 3.77 |
If you’re wondering why Snell remains unsigned after winning his second Cy Young in 2023, it could be because general managers aren’t sure what to make of him. Snell’s ERA has ranged from 3.24 to 4.29 between his two Cy Young campaigns and his WHIP from 1.20 to 1.32. His 5% walk rate was the worst in the NL this past season among pitchers who threw more than 100 innings, and he benefitted from a low BABIP and a high LOB%. Snell is excellent at generating strikes but has always been wild, providing him with a razor-thin margin for error. He’s capable of being great, as he’s shown, but also terrible. Where he ends up could also affect his value, but even if it’s in another pitcher-friendly ballpark, be wary of drafting him high.
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