Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice: Hunter Brown, Brandon Pfaadt, Taj Bradley, Kutter Crawford (2024)

ERA minus FIP is a quick and dirty stat available to sort at FanGraphs to help identify lucky and unlucky pitchers. No statistic is infallible. Yet, a positive ERA minus FIP indicates a pitcher was unlucky, and a negative suggests they were lucky, absent more data.

The subjects of deeper scrutiny in this piece are the qualified starting pitchers and a handful of eye-catching ones with at least 80 innings in 2023 and the highest positive ERA minus FIP marks.

2023 Positive ERA Minus FIP Leaders

Hunter Brown (SP - HOU) | 174.0 ADP

Hunter Brown is a breakout candidate this season. He had a 5.09 ERA in 155.2 innings in his rookie season. However, the righty's 4.27 xERA, 4.37 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA were more encouraging. Brown also had a 52.4 GB%, 26.8 K%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.

Gamers don't have to squint to see a fantasy asset. Brown also struggled down the stretch, and he admitted he was fatigued. In 94.0 innings in the first half last season, Brown had a 4.12 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 BB% and 28.1 K%. Brown would be a rock-solid pick at his ADP if he can duplicate his first-half numbers over an entire season.

Brandon Pfaadt (SP - ARI) | 240.2 ADP

Brandon Pfaadt was featured in "10 Must-Have Pitchers to Draft" when his ADP was 225.5. He's even cheaper now, making him a no-brainer. Readers should check out that piece for a thorough analysis of why Pfaadt is an ideal pick at his bargain price.

Taj Bradley (SP - TB) | 322.4 ADP

Taj Bradley's 5.59 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) totaling 104.2 innings in his rookie season was putrid, and his 4.55 xERA and 4.79 FIP weren't fantasy-friendly, either. Still, he had a 3.83 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA, 28.0 K% and eye-catching pitch-modeling data. The young righty had marks of a 110 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 105 Pitching+.

Kutter Crawford (SP, RP - BOS) | 334.0 ADP

Kutter Crawford is another American League East pitch-modeling darling available after the 300th pick. He had a 106 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+ last season. He had other encouraging numbers. However, I'll hold off on sharing those until he's included in a forthcoming piece about RP-eligible starting pitchers to target in fantasy drafts.