ERA minus FIP is a quick and dirty stat available to sort at FanGraphs to help identify lucky and unlucky pitchers. No statistic is infallible. Yet, a positive ERA minus FIP indicates a pitcher was unlucky, and a negative suggests they were lucky, absent more data.
The subjects of deeper scrutiny in this piece are the qualified starting pitchers and a handful of eye-catching ones with at least 80 innings in 2023 and the highest positive ERA minus FIP marks.
2023 Positive ERA Minus FIP Leaders
ERA minus FIP is a quick and dirty stat available to sort at FanGraphs to help identify lucky and unlucky pitchers. No statistic is infallible. Yet, a positive ERA minus FIP indicates a pitcher was unlucky, and a negative suggests they were lucky, absent more data.
The subjects of deeper scrutiny in this piece are the qualified starting pitchers and a handful of eye-catching ones with at least 80 innings in 2023 and the highest positive ERA minus FIP marks.
2023 Positive ERA Minus FIP Leaders
Hunter Brown is a breakout candidate this season. He had a 5.09 ERA in 155.2 innings in his rookie season. However, the righty's 4.27 xERA, 4.37 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA were more encouraging. Brown also had a 52.4 GB%, 26.8 K%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.
Gamers don't have to squint to see a fantasy asset. Brown also struggled down the stretch, and he admitted he was fatigued. In 94.0 innings in the first half last season, Brown had a 4.12 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 BB% and 28.1 K%. Brown would be a rock-solid pick at his ADP if he can duplicate his first-half numbers over an entire season.
Brandon Pfaadt was featured in "10 Must-Have Pitchers to Draft" when his ADP was 225.5. He's even cheaper now, making him a no-brainer. Readers should check out that piece for a thorough analysis of why Pfaadt is an ideal pick at his bargain price.
Taj Bradley's 5.59 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) totaling 104.2 innings in his rookie season was putrid, and his 4.55 xERA and 4.79 FIP weren't fantasy-friendly, either. Still, he had a 3.83 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA, 28.0 K% and eye-catching pitch-modeling data. The young righty had marks of a 110 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 105 Pitching+.
Kutter Crawford is another American League East pitch-modeling darling available after the 300th pick. He had a 106 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+ last season. He had other encouraging numbers. However, I'll hold off on sharing those until he's included in a forthcoming piece about RP-eligible starting pitchers to target in fantasy drafts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
