As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2023 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2023 drafts. This will be a five-part series, reviewing each pick of the first five rounds. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP from NFBC Online Championships. I chose NFBC over sources like CBS, Yahoo! and ESPN, as I could not find those historical ADPs.

Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2024 research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price, which players were busts and even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy managers win leagues.

The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format, so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H managers. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2024 season, please contact me on Twitter.

But first, let’s look at picks 37-48 from the 2023 draft season.

• 2023 ADP Review: Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3
• 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
• Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Projections

2023 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap (Picks 37-48)

37. Shane McClanahan (SP – TB)

After an incredible 2022 season, there were some high expectations for Shane McClanahan in 2023. Those expectations were unmet, as his season was cut short due to a UCL injury requiring Tommy John Surgery. McClanahan did make 21 starts with a 3.29 ERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate, which were not bad, but he did not pay off his draft price in the end.

38. Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)

Brandon Woodruff battled an injury in 2022 but returned and looked solid, so expectations were high again heading into last season. That came to a crashing in 2023, as Woodruff battled a severe shoulder injury that ended his season after 11 starts. He threw 67 innings with an elite 2.28 ERA, 0.82 WIP and an outstanding 23.3% K-BB. He was on his way to a monster season but fell tremendously short.

39. Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)

Justin Verlander may not be that dominating ace anymore, but he still turned in a quality season in 2023. Verlander made 27 starts, throwing 162.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Verlander did not go as deep into games, but those were not only some things dropping from his usual seasonal performances. Verlander’s strikeout rate dropped to 21.5%, resulting in a pedestrian 14.8% K-BB. Verlander may be serviceable going forward, but he is no longer worth an early-round draft pick.

40. Max Scherzer (SP – TEX)

Max Scherzer made 27 starts this past season for 152.2 innings, which is OK, but not the workhorse we expect from Scherzer. He had a 3.77 ERA after two seasons with a sub-3 ERA. He still had a 28% strikeout rate and 20.8% K-BB, which is good, but the lack of innings and run prevention has hampered Scherzer. He also dealt with injuries, including a back injury that ended his year and required offseason surgery.

41. Matt Olson (1B – ATL)

Matt Olson turned in an MVP-caliber season overshadowed by his teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. Olson hit .283 with 54 home runs while driving in 139 and scoring 127 runs. It was his best year, surpassing his fantastic 2021 season. Olson even walked a career-best 14.4% with a 16.4% barrel rate and 55.1% hard-hit rate. Olson was elite and a first-round talent being drafted in the fourth round.

42. Daulton Varsho (OF – TOR)

Daulton Varsho was drafted this high since he had catcher eligibility but would play nearly every day in the outfield, bringing great fantasy upside. Varsho played almost every contest, finishing 158 games with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Those were similar numbers to J.T. Realmuto‘s, but the separation between the two was Varsho’s batting average of only .220. Varsho had a decent season for a catcher but will not have catcher eligibility going forward, so his price tag will no longer be the fourth round.

43. Josh Hader (RP – HOU)

Josh Hader put together an elite 2023 fantasy season. He collected 33 saves over 61 appearances, racking up a 1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 23.8% K-BB. Sure, many would have wanted more than 33 saves from their top closer, but the ratios and strikeouts can help offset the “lack” of saves. There was a bit of a red flag regarding Hader, as he rarely pitched back-to-back days and seemed to be handled with kids’ gloves at times throughout the season. Other than that, Hader is an elite closer.

44. Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)

Luis Robert Jr. finally played over 100 games, and we saw the production we knew was under the hood the whole time. He played in 145 games and hit 38 home runs while stealing 20 bases and hitting .264. The batting average was down from most expectations, but the power and speed were great, with 90 runs scored and 80 RBI. The runs and RBI will always be a concern on a bad White Sox team, but the power and speed are great, and we will likely get a better batting average. Just stay healthy, “Lou Bob.”

45. Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI)

Kyle Schwarber once again put together a great season regarding power and run production but crushed your team in batting average. Schwarber hit 47 home runs with 108 runs and 104 RBI, but that .197 batting average can destroy a team. Schwarber’s power production keeps him on many fantasy radars, but a strict roster construction is needed to take on his batting average woes.

46. Dylan Cease (SP – CWS)

After an elite 2022, Dylan Cease reverted to his command struggles in 2023. Cease finished the season with a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 177 IP. Those ratios will tank a fantasy team. It’s tough to bounce back from if you rostered Cease all season. He had a strong 27.3% strikeout rate, but the 10.1% walk rate was among the many nails in Cease’s 2023 fantasy coffin.

47. Corey Seager (SS – TEX)

Corey Seager put together an outstanding 2023 season in only 119 games. Over those 119 games, Seager hit 33 home runs with 88 runs, 96 RBI and an elite .327 batting average. It was an excellent season for Seager, but injuries prevented it from being elite. He provides power and an excellent batting average, but realize you won’t get any steals when you roster Seager, so build accordingly.

48. Cedric Mullins (OF – BAL)

Cedric Mullins had an alright fantasy season, but not one worthy of a fourth-round pick. He hit 15 home runs with 19 stolen bases, which isn’t bad, but he only hit .233 over 118 games. The games played are my biggest concern, as Mullins is platooned often. Without playing over 150 games, Mullins is not as fantasy-viable as he once was.

Conclusion

The fourth round started with four starting pitchers that did not live up to their draft price. Verlander and Scherzer did not bust, but McLanahan and Woodruff were not even close to returning to fourth-round value with their season-ending injuries.

Things looked up as the round went on with a near NL MVP in Olson, who was a significant value pick. The only other major picks in round four were Robert Jr. and Seager, as everyone else picked either had a major flaw or just ruined your team. The fourth round had some serious landmines.

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Brian Entrekin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him Twitter.