Both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts begin in Mobile, Ala., as the annual Reese’s Senior Bowl has kicked off. Here are some Senior Bowl participants work monitoring in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts.
Let’s break it down!
- 2024 Senior Bowl Guide
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: RB
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: QB
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: TE
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: WR
2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Targets
Quarterback
Michael Pratt (Tulane) | 6’2.4/220
A small-school signal caller, Pratt outdueled Heisman-winning QB Caleb Williams in a stunning 46-45 upset victory over the defenseless USC Trojans in the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
Although he sat out the first few games, Pratt posted an emphatic year-one breakout by leading all FBS freshman quarterbacks with 20 touchdown passes. He achieved this feat despite working with an inept WR corps that posted a jaw-dropping 18.1% drop rate with Pratt at the helm. This was by far the worst drop rate of any quarterback in the nation that year, with Dillon Gabriel finishing a distant second with a 13.6% drop rate. Though Tulane opened up 0-3 in the first three games under his tutelage, Pratt finished the regular season strong by accounting for three or more total touchdowns in six of his last eight games while winning three of their final four regular-season contests. Tulane’s field general earned a 73.4 PFF overall grade and flashed legitimate dual-threat ability by rushing for 229 yards and an opportunistic eight touchdowns.
The sky appeared to be the limit heading into year No. 2, with new OC Chip Long coming in fresh off a stint at Notre Dame. However, despite the 10 returning offensive starters from a team that averaged 34.7 PPG, the Pratt/Long pairing quickly dissolved into an oil-and-water situation. Pratt battled multiple debilitating injuries throughout the campaign yet still dutifully churned out 12 starts en route to a disastrous 2-10 finish. Even with the malignancy of Long’s brief stand at Tulane afflicting his performance, Pratt was still able to increase his completion rate (54.9%-57.6%), yards per attempt (7.1-to-7.3) and pressure-to-sack rate (27%-to-22%). However, he took a hit in the PFF metrics, plummeting from a 73.4 overall grade in 2020 to 56.2 while sporting a ghastly 13-to-22 BTT-to-TWP ratio.
Clearly, head coach Willie Fritz and the rest of the Green Wave were eager to turn the page. They did so by hiring a known commodity in veteran OC Jim Svoboda, who had spent the previous 12 years as the head coach of Central Missouri (137-62) and serving as the OC of UCLA back in 2005. The effect was instantaneous, with Pratt leading Tulane to the AAC Championship before defeating USC to finish with a 12-2 record. Long’s departure brought forth a renaissance, as Pratt increased his completion rate by six percentage points (57.2%-to-63.2%) and his NFL Passer Rating from 90.6-to-111.9 while slashing his turnover-worthy play rate from 5.2%-to-1.7%.
Pratt entered the season with plenty of hype after his signature Cotton Bowl performance. He once again delivered despite sustaining an injury in the first game of the season against South Alabama, when he expertly dissected the Jaguars’ defense by going 14-of-15 for 293 yards, 19.5 yards per attempt (!) and four touchdowns. He would, unfortunately, miss their non-conference tilt against Ole Miss but returned after two games to lead Tulane to an undefeated AAC regular season. This was followed by a conference championship game loss to SMU, the lone demerit on Pratt’s 2023 report card. New OC (his fourth in four years) Slade Nagle encouraged Pratt to increase his downfield passing output from 12.9% of his throws going for 20+ yards to 18.7% this year (14th-highest deep rate in FBS) with a 45.3% deep completion rate (12th). OC Nagle’s more vertical approach resulted in a full two-yard spike in Pratt’s ADOT, from 8.9-to-10.9 yards per attempt. Bringing in Notre Dame WR Lawrence Keys to pair with Senior Bowl invitee WR Jha’Quan Jackson and redshirt freshman sensation Chris Brazzell II (who just transferred to Tennessee) helped Pratt cut his drop rate from 11.2%-to-6.6%.
Pratt’s arm talent and athleticism are both above average, but his ability to navigate the pocket under duress is where he really stands out. His outstanding 99.4 NFL Passer Rating under pressure ranked third nationally behind only McCarthy and Florida QB Graham Mertz, while his 68% adjusted completion rate under pressure ranked eighth in FBS.
Pratt’s steely resolve when things are breaking down around him is a trait that translates extremely well to the next level. That’s especially appealing for risk-averse NFL teams that are more than ever looking to roster dependable backup quarterbacks with upside after the barrage of injuries to prominent signal callers this season. While he doesn’t profile as an elite prospect in the mold of Williams/Maye/Daniels, Pratt is the clear QB7 who has an outside shot at getting picked before one of the next three QBs Nix/Penix Jr./McCarthy as the QB6 with a blistering Senior Bowl showing.
Running Back
Jaylen Wright (Tennessee) | 5’11/210
Jaylen Wright is a top-five RB for me and a player I aggressively targeted in College Fantasy Football (CFF) dynasty and redraft leagues despite being considered the nominal UT RB2 behind Jabari Small. He was clocked at 21.6 MPH, the second fastest mark by an SEC rusher behind only Ole Miss’ Ulysses Bentley (22.0 MPH). A true home-run threat, Wright averaged 7.4 YPC with a 91.0 PFF overall grade and a staggering 35 rushes of 10+ yards, which ranked 20th nationally, in just 136 carries (25.7% = No. 1 in FBS). For perspective, of the 19 players who eclipsed Wright’s 35 10+ yard rushes, the lowest number of carries it took to reach that mark was 188, 52 more than Wright.
He averaged an exceptional 4.35 yards after contact (eighth in FBS) while reeling in 22-of-25 targets for a 1.33 yards per route average (39th). I also like that Wright logged 10.2% of his snaps in the slot, showing HC Josh Heupel’s faith in Wright’s ability to contribute in the passing game. Unfortunately, Wright has an upper-body injury that will keep him out of action at the Senior Bowl, but he should run at the Combine.
MarShawn Lloyd (USC) | 5’9/210
Marshawn Lloyd was a high four-star recruit who originally committed to South Carolina and had his freshman year taken from him with a torn ACL. He came along slowly in his return from injury, logging just 64 carries in 2021 at 3.6 YPC, but surged in 2022 by rushing 110 times for 565 yards, 5.1 YPC and nine touchdowns to go with a solid 83.7 run grade and 4.05 YAC. With his ACL now in the rear-view mirror, USC head coach Lincoln Riley seized on Lloyd’s frustration of being in a three-man committee and brought him to SoCal for the 2023 season.
Lloyd proceeded to rip off 816 rushing yards on just 115 carries (7.1 YPC) with nine touchdowns and an 87.2 run grade over 10 games. He broke 47 tackles for a sensational 41% broken tackle rate and 177.1 PFF elusiveness rating (4th in FBS). His 4.3 YAC was a top-10 mark, and he also sported the nation’s highest yards per reception for a running back (17.8).
Lloyd has a speed/power combination to his game that belies his 210-pound frame, as he’s strong enough to finish runs with a helmet to a defender’s chest but still has the requisite acceleration to pop off chunk gains. He’s also made noticeable strides in the receiving game after being an afterthought in that department for his entire South Carolina tenure.
I think Lloyd has enough skill to carve out a starting role in the NFL, but he will need to prove he can handle a 200+ carry workload over a grueling 17-game NFL season, as he’s never topped 115 carries in a season to date.
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