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    Tom Strachan | Mon, Feb 26th 2024, 6:21am EST

Best Ball Advance Rates (2024 Fantasy Football)

Advance rates are far from the be-all, end-all when it comes to best ball. They can, however, provide interesting insight into how players dominated from certain areas of the draft. Ideally, we want to advance to the finals with some low-advance rate players on our roster so that in the final week when it all matters, we have some difference-making players that provide leverage on the field. In this article, we’ll go round by round examining the best-advancing players in Underdog’s 2023 Best Ball Mania IV, as well as some of the worst.

2024 Best Ball Advance Rates

Round 1

The first round of the draft was home to three players advancing out of the regular season at a rate of 34% or higher — Christian McCaffrey (36.24%), Tyreek Hill (34.50%) and CeeDee Lamb (34.60%). The baseline average for advancing is 16.7%, so these players far exceeded that number and dragged teams into the playoffs two times the expected rate. The first round failures were Justin Jefferson (5.77%), Cooper Kupp (7.39%) and Austin Ekeler (8.33%), who were all massive letdowns in 2023, acting like a millstone around the neck of your best ball rosters and immediately setting you with an upward challenge to succeed.

Round 2

Much of last offseason was spent debating whether a round two quarterback was a worthwhile choice and Josh Allen proved he was worth it, finishing with a 27.11% advance rate, almost 5% more than any other player in this round in part thanks to the 15 rushing touchdowns he secured. This was something Jalen Hurts also managed. Even in a disappointing year, Hurts still advanced at a rate of 21.14%. Two other players advanced at a rate above 20% — DeVonta Smith (20.77%), thanks to four top-13 weekly finishes between weeks 8-13 and Derrick Henry, who defied age and a poor offense to finish as the RB8 in total points. The worst picks of round two were Patrick Mahomes (10.99%), Garrett Wilson (10.27%) and Nick Chubb (6.34%).

Round 3

Despite Keenan Allen not playing from Week 15 onwards, he still boasted an impressive 28.27% advance rate, one of only four third-round players to advance above the average of 16.7%. It’s easy to surmise that if Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen had stayed healthy, Allen would have been one of the best picks of the early rounds. Deebo Samuel was the only over player above 20% (24.68%). Jahmyr Gibbs (18.75%) and Lamar Jackson (17.01%) rounded out the above-average group. Tee Higgins (8.61%) was by far the worst pick of the third round, with Jonathan Taylor (10.92%) the next worst.

Round 4

Round four was home to some potential landmines with Jerry Jeudy (9.28%) and Najee Harris (11.44%) clearly belonging much further down the rankings than they were being drafted. Justin Fields (13.17%) was the QB5 off the board but failed to deliver with a below-average rate. It should be mentioned, though, that if he hadn’t missed four games, things might have been different. The best performers were Travis Etienne (27.91%), D.J. Moore (25.42%) and Joe Mixon (20.93%). All in all, this was a good area of the draft with six players at above-average rates, compared to round three or four.

Round 5

Hot on the heels of the fourth round, round five also had six players above the average advance rate of 16.7%, including both Brandon Aiyuk (25.63%) and George Kittle (26.26%). The QB and TE positions were popular picks in this round with two QBs and two TEs but Joe Burrow (7.29%) and Darren Waller (11.37%) turned out to be bad picks, while TJ Hockenson helped teams get to the dance. However, he tore his ACL and MCL during Week 16 when fantasy managers needed him most. Three of the players with below-average advance rates barely missed out on positive contributions — Justin Herbert at 14.12%, Drake London at 14.49% and Alexander Mattison at 15.07%.

Round 6

This wasn’t a classic round with only four players above 16.7%. Mike Evans headlined the bunch at 31.57%, the sixth-highest rate of any player in Best Ball Mania IV. Gabe Davis continues to polarize opinions but a 21.1% advance rate is nothing to sniff at, especially when George Pickens (16.15%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12.63%) and Chris Godwin (14.81%) were trailing in his dust. The running backs in this range disappointed with Cam Akers (9.31%), Miles Sanders (10.10%) and Dameon Pierce (12.39%) being massive letdowns.

Round 7

Through seven rounds, this was the most productive round with seven players advancing above average, including three of the four running backs in this range in Rachaad White (26.07%), James Cook (22.56%) and Alvin Kamara (27.69%), only let down by Javonte Williams‘ not terrible 14.59%. Deshaun Watson was the worst pick of this round, putting up a miserable 8.67% advance rate (and the only player below 12%). Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers both posted similar rates of 18.50% and 18.11%, respectively, paying off their reasonable average draft position (ADP).

Round 8

The WR Dead Zone kicked in around this range of drafts with Elijah Moore (10.77%), Michael Thomas (13.45%), Quentin Johnston (10.74%) and Skyy Moore (10.68%) all disappointing, particularly in comparison to the one bright spot at the position in this range, Courtland Sutton (21.91%). Both quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (22.50%) and Dak Prescott (36.95%) excelled, with Prescott posting the second-highest advance rate of any player in the competition. JK Dobbins tore his achilles in Week 1 and posted a 9.73% advance rate — the worst in this range, just slightly below the plethora of bad WR picks.

Round 9

By far the worst round of the first 10 was round nine, where only two players posted positive advance rates — Odell Beckham Jr. (17.08%) and Brian Robinson Jr. (26.26%), who was by far the best pick of the round. Five quarterbacks were selected in this range: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Anthony Richardson. None posted above-average rates, with Geno Smith the only QB above 14% at 15.29%. Treylon Burks and Kadarius Toney continued the WR Dead Zone from round eight, with both posting below 11%.

Round 10

Nico Collins‘ breakout season saw him advance at a rate of 30.96%, the seventh-highest rate of any player and the fourth-highest rate at the receiver position. Five running backs were taken in this round: Jamaal Williams, Zach Charbonnet, Rashaad Penny, Jerick McKinnon, Samaje Perine and Khalil Herbert. They all advanced at a range of 11-14%, with none proving consistently useful. The only other players above 16.7% were Jared Goff (21.67%) and Dalton Kincaid (19.43%).

Quick Hits

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

  • Best Advance Rate: Raheem Mostert (42.61% – Highest in all of BBM IV)
  • Worst Advance Rate: Isaiah Hodgins (13.07%)
  • Positive Advance Rates: 5

Round 14

Round 15

  • Best Advance Rate: CJ Stroud (27.54%)
  • Worst Advance Rate: Jeff Wilson (12.99%)
  • Positive Advance Rates: 5

Round 16

  • Best Advance Rate: Sam Howell (22.14%)
  • Worst Advance Rate: Zamir White (12.45%)
  • Positive Advance Rates: 5

Round 17

Round 18

Undrafted

  • Best Advance Rate: Kyren Williams (34.56%)
  • Worst Advance Rate: N/A
  • Positive Advance Rates: 37/119 qualifying players

Best Ball Draft Strategy

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