Josh Shepardson | Mon, Feb 12th 2024, 6:14am EST

7 Lucky Starting Pitchers: Draft or Fade? (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

There isn’t a single perfect statistic for projecting future fantasy baseball performance. However, fielding independent pitching (FIP) minus earned run average (ERA) is an excellent jumping-off point for digging into lucky and unlucky performances from the previous season.

Pitchers with a significantly lower ERA than their FIP in 2023 were likely quite lucky and warrant further examination. This piece’s first group of pitchers are qualified starters with an ERA minus FIP of -0.50 or lower. The second group of unqualified starting pitchers had an ERA minus FIP of -1.00 or lower. Finally, since everyone on the leaderboards isn’t drafted as a fantasy-relevant player, only starting pitchers with an average draft position (ADP) in the top 300 picks were singled out for further analysis.

2023 Negative ERA Minus FIP Leaders

Blake Snell (FA -SP) - 55.8 ADP

Blake Snell won the 2023 National League Cy Young Award after spinning a sparkling 2.25 ERA. Unfortunately, the veteran lefty is still a free agent and drastically overperformed his underlying data, starting with his FIP. As readers can see in the above table, Snell had the largest negative gap between ERA and FIP among qualified pitchers in 2023.

According to FanGraphs, Snell also had a 3.77 xERA, 3.62 xFIP and a 4.06 SIERA. The lefty's 13.3 BB% last season was the highest mark in his career. Furthermore, he had a 15.0 BB% and 4.39 SIERA in the second half. Snell's pitch modeling wasn't elite, either. He had a 107 Stuff+ but just a 95 Location+ and 100 Pitching+. Snell's ADP would be rich if he were on a team. It's unconscionable while he remains a free agent.

Kodai Senga (NYM - SP) - 62.8 ADP

Kodai Senga had a sub-3.00 ERA last season but none of his ERA estimators validated his 2.98 ERA. He had a 3.86 xERA, 3.77 xFIP and a 4.00 SIERA. Still, the veteran hurler had an encouraging first MLB season.

Moreover, Senga improved as the season went along. The righty whittled his 12.3 BB% in the first half to a 9.6 BB% in the second half. Fortunately, Senga's strikeout rate only slipped slightly - 29.5 K% to 28.6 K%. As a result, Senga had a 3.73 xFIP and a 3.88 SIERA in the second half.

The 31-year-old righty is being drafted a pinch too early. Still, his second-half ERA estimators are a reasonable barometer for his 2024 outlook. Senga is also an outstanding strikeout source and could exceed 180 innings after amassing 166.1 in 2023. Thus, Senga is a rock-solid pick if he falls into the 70-75 ADP range.

Justin Verlander (HOU - SP) - 115.8 ADP

Chris Bassitt (TOR - SP) - 120.6 ADP

Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt were included in my 10 Pitchers to Avoid Drafting article. Their underlying data last season was unflattering. While Verlander's ADP has correctly dropped approximately 14 picks, he's still overpriced. Inexplicably, Bassitt's ADP has climbed roughly 21 picks, making him an even easier starting pitcher to fade in fantasy baseball drafts.

Merrill Kelly (ARI - SP) - 133.2 ADP

Merrill Kelly is a fascinating pitcher. The veteran hurler had a 3.37 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 3.86 xFIP and a 4.01 SIERA in 2022 before tallying a 3.29 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 3.83 xFIP and a 4.12 SIERA in 2023. Kelly's ERA and xFIP were similar, while his xERA and SIERA were worse in 2023.

However, Kelly issued more free passes (7.6 BB% in 2022 versus 9.6 BB% in 2023) to strike out batters at a higher rate (22.0 K% compared to 25.9 K%). Kelly threw his fastball at a career-low 41.4% rate in 2023 and used his slider at a career-high 5.5% rate, much higher than his previous high of 0.2% in 2022.

Kelly's slider had a 104 Stuff+ and 20.8 SwStr% last season. The 35-year-old righty's curve had an eye-catching 121 Stuff+. The curveball's 10.3 SwStr% wasn't spectacular but Kelly froze hitters when he threw it in the strike zone, netting just a 50.4 Z-Swing% against his Uncle Charlie.

Kelly's changeup had an underwhelming 99 Stuff+ last season. Nevertheless, it was a chase pitch, coaxing a 47.9 O-Swing% and 18.2 SwStr%. Kelly hasn't been a stranger to overperforming his ERA estimators, doing so regularly since returning stateside in 2019. It's best to lower expectations to roughly a 4.00 ERA. However, with his surge in strikeouts and a pitch-mix change to support the improvement he's a viable pick around his ADP.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) - 291.0 ADP

Clayton Kershaw shouldn't be drafted in almost any format. He had shoulder surgery in November. The southpaw won't be ready to pitch for an MLB team until at least August.

Josiah Gray (WSH - SP) - 299.5 ADP

Josiah Gray had a 5.48 ERA in 70.2 innings in 2021 and a 5.02 ERA in 2022. Last season, he had a 3.91 ERA. Unfortunately, Gray's sub-4.00 ERA was a complete fluke. The righty's 4.93 FIP was his best ERA estimator. All of his other ERA estimators were north of 5.00.

Gray's average fastball velocity fell from 94.5 MPH in 2022 to 93.4 MPH in 2023 and his CSW% has fallen from 28.5% in 2021 to 27.9% in 2022 and 25.9% in 2023. Gray's pitch-modeling info was also putrid last season. There's nothing in Gray's profile to support drafting him.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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