I’m using FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (PPR) to explore some running backs who I suspect I’ll be drafting earlier than their current slots.
Keep in mind, many of these rankings and inclinations will change based on the draft, free agency as well as reporting in training camp and the preseason.
Let’s dive in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Early Undervalued Running Backs (2024 Fantasy Football)
Chubb missed nearly the entire 2023 season after tearing his knee in September. I highly suspect we’re going to be waiting on Nick Chubb injury updates like my dog waits for food to drop in the kitchen on Taco Tuesday.
Chubb averages 97 all-purpose yards per game through 77 career games. He averages more than five yards per rushing attempt. He’s passed the eye test for six seasons. His current ECR of RB26 is too low to rank someone who has finished his past four seasons:
- 2022: RB8
- 2021: RB11
- 2020: RB13
- 2019: RB6
On one hand, Chubb tore his knee to the point that it required two surgeries, the latter happening in mid-November 2023. On the other hand, Breece Hall tore his ACL and other ligaments in 2022, was limited to start the 2023 season and still finished as the RB2.
I will always bet on talent, and Nick Chubb has talent in spades. When Nick Chubb is on the field he’s as “set it and forget it” a fantasy asset as there is.
Mostert finished last season as the RB5. I’d imagine his current ECR of RB31 is due to a few factors:
- Touchdown regression. Mostert scored 21 touchdowns. There’s a virtual guarantee that that number will decrease in 2024.
- De’Von Achane. Achane, a 2023 third-round pick, looked electric when he was on the field. He totaled 997 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games.
- Age. Mostert will turn 32 in April and 2024 will be his 10th NFL season.
I’ll still be drafting Raheem Mostert.
Achane, as good as he is, is a smaller running back. He’s 5-foot-9, 188 pounds. The risks of putting a workhorse RB1 workload on that build at running back don’t make sense for the Dolphins or Achane. Thankfully for Miami, they have Mostert ready to factor in. Miami’s offense is good enough to sustain two fantasy-relevant running backs.
Mostert and Achane were both active in nine games last season. Achane finished as a top-10 running back in four of those games. In those four games, Mostert finished as a top-20 running back in three of those four games. Mostert straight-up outscored Achane in the other five games they played together.
Jones only played 11 games last season, averaged 5.2 yards per touch and scored three total touchdowns, his lowest numbers since 2018, 2017 and ever, respectively. He’s also 29. However, any Packer fan would tell you the Packers’ offense looked different (in a good way) when Jones was active.
Assuming this backfield stays relatively unchanged in terms of personnel, I suspect Aaron Jones will be in for some positive touchdown regression in 2024. Jordan Love and Green Bay’s assortment of young receiving weapons could make this a potent offense in 2024. Running backs on good offenses almost always provide fantasy value, especially when they’re as talented as Aaron Jones.
Here’s your way-too-early sleeper.
Demercado received Pro Football Focus’ sixth-highest running grade last season. He was an undrafted rookie who spelled James Conner when Conner missed time with an injury last season. Conner looked solid, and I’d be surprised if he just fell off a cliff. However, Conner will be 29 going into next season and has never played a full season.
Demercado, to me, is in the handcuff-plus tier of running backs. He will likely factor into the rotation with Conner active, but should Conner miss time, Demercado could be an automatic start. His ECR of RB71 at the moment is way too low.
Coming in one spot behind Demercado, at an ECR of RB72, is 2022 undrafted free agent Jordan Mason.
Mason, through two seasons in San Francisco, has 83 carries and 464 rushing yards, a solid 5.6 yards per attempt. He has carried the ball more than five times in a game eight times. He’s tallied five or more yards per carry in six of those eight games.
Of every player who carried the ball 30 or more times last season, Mason finished with Pro Football Focus’ 10th-highest rushing grade. Mason’s talent, age and health are enough for him to supplant Elijah Mitchell as the Christian McCaffrey handcuff in my mind.
If I draft Christian McCaffrey next season, I’m passing on Elijah Mitchell at RB56 and happily snagging Mason at RB72.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players
- Early Overvalued Players: RB
- QB2s w/ Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Potential: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
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