When we tackled this article last season we lined up and knocked down three correct players to avoid. Hopefully, you followed our lead last year to success. In 2024, we will help you avoid the landmines at the most essential position on the field. Even within a 1QB league, swinging and missing on a quarterback can be detrimental to your fantasy success in the long term.
Below are five quarterbacks who either fall in the category of a trap or are elevated past what their actual value may be for your fantasy team. Be prepared. We have some names here that may make your eyes jump out of your head like an old-school cartoon, but let me explain before you decide to drop the ACME anvil on my head like I am Wile E. Coyote.
Quarterbacks to Avoid: 2 Traps
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Yes, Joe Cool is the first name on the list. We can already hear you as you type your harshly worded letter to FantasyPros asking them to throw me into the abyss, but if you genuinely think about it, deep down into the depths of your souls, you know the truth. Joe Burrow doesn’t offer you what his counterparts within the NFL can. As we speak, Joe Burrow is the ninth overall quarterback in our 2024 rankings — right behind Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. Do you recognize what they bring to the table that Burrow doesn’t?
The Konami Code helps your fantasy team evolve weekly and overcome any dud players within your lineups. Joe Burrow doesn’t provide that for your lineup consistently and highly enough to elevate your team. That is the first strike. Joe Burrow may be the better quarterback in the NFL but fantasy is a different beast. Anthony Richardson and even Justin Fields, without a stable home, create game-changing performances more often for your lineup because of their rushing skills.
The next issue is the change surrounding the star quarterback in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow lost his offensive coordinator and will likely lose his star running back due to contracts. The worst hit could come with Tee Higgins having a chance to reach free agency. The Bengals’ window for contenders is slowly closing shut. If Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd play elsewhere next year, you could see a significant drop in numbers for Joe Cool in 2024.
Finally, let’s break down a few worrisome Joe Burrow stats. The first stat is his Deep Throw %, which is 8.2%. That number is beneath Bailey Zappe, Aidan O’Connell, Kenny Pickett and Easton Stick. The opportunity for explosive plays is limited within this offense and may worsen if the talent drops off due to free agency. We must also be concerned about his fantasy points per game (PPG) — 26th in the NFL this year. That number was lower than Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson, Sam Howell, and Jake Browning.
Can Joe Burrow dominate the league? He has the skill set to do so. However, does he have the right offense, weapons and mobility to dominate your fantasy league? That is where the split from real life to fantasy happens. We need to adjust accordingly to not fall into the trap.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Here is another quarterback with a fantastic arm but a scary situation surrounds him on the playing field. We have aging superstars with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler (if he stays) and Mike Williams. Now Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler could be sent packing this offseason and who is to say Keenan Allen is 100% safe there with a new coaching staff and GM in place? There are many moving balls around Justin Herbert and this doesn’t even bring up struggling first-round rookie Quentin Johnston.
Justin Herbert also lacks the Konami Code needed to elevate your lineups to help mitigate any dud players from week to week. Due to this, FantasyPros has his consensus ranking at 10th overall, just beneath Joe Burrow and just above Brock Purdy. However, when you think about it, which set of weapons would you rather have your quarterback surrounded by? The weapons in L.A. or the weapons in San Francisco? Don’t worry. You don’t have to answer that rhetorical question.
Finally, we have run-heavy stalwarts Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman leading this Chargers team in 2024. Please read this correctly: They will not forget the arm talent of Justin Herbert, however, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks and when push comes to shove, people will show you their true colors. Now that I shoved three different sayings into a sentence, you can see the path where this offense leans on the run more than before, limiting Herbert’s upside. He was 13th overall in PPG last season; with the aging weapons and change in offense, that number could fall outside the top 15 in 2024. It’s bad enough he had an adjusted completed percentage that ranked 26th in the league (73.8%); now he may have fewer opportunities. Herbert is a big name without significant production value.
Burrow and Herbert are my two biggest traps, so who are some of the other names later in your drafts you should refrain from drafting? Let me quickly break that down.
Quarterbacks to Avoid: 3 Overvalued Players
Derek Carr (QB – NO)
We have learned our lesson. Derek Carr has been below average or average, at best, on two different teams in two different years, even with fantastic talent. Let’s not waste our time again here.
Will Levis (QB – TEN)
Does Will Levis have a cannon of an arm? Sure he does.
Is he one of the tightest upper bodies that lacks mobility as he throws? Absolutely!
The talent around him is also weak. He puts in a great effort but I am not touching him in redraft. For dynasty, I may even move him the second any hype builds around him this offseason.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
I love Kirk Cousins yearly but his injury history and age scare me. I was fading Kyler Murray in 2023 due to a lack of availability (which is your best ability). Plus, you knew his talent would take time to come back. These same principles apply here, mainly because Cousins isn’t mobile. Let someone else take the risk.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- QB2s w/ Top-5 Upside: Feb
- Players to Avoid
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB
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Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros. If you ever need to talk about your teams, drafts, or anything else football-related, don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @Jpep20. Enjoy your offseason.