Best Ball drafts are underway. Let’s talk about players to avoid in 2024. These players have a potential capped ceiling that could stifle your team’s overall upside.
Draft at your own risk!
Best Ball Players to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
At first glance, Diggs might seem like an extreme bargain. The once perennial first-round pick is now being drafted in the late-second, early-third round. Diggs finished as WR9 overall in PPR in 2023. And while his fantasy points per game dipped from his 2022 performance, he still finished as a top-15 receiver.
The Good News: Despite already being the subject of trade rumors, Diggs will likely remain in Buffalo as Josh Allen‘s WR1 with Gabe Davis set to hit free agency.
The Bad News: WR1 for the Bills likely won’t yield a consistent WR1 output in fantasy.
The Bills struggled early in 2023 but found their rhythm after making a change at offensive coordinator. Volume decreased significantly for Diggs and he was no longer the focal point of the offense. The decrease in volume plus lack of touchdown opportunities severely capped Diggs’ upside and left him with a low ceiling and low floor. The change in offensive philosophy worked well for the Bills overall and should repeat in 2024 with Joe Brady as the permanent offensive coordinator. Diggs might be a reliable receiver in redraft leagues but in Best Ball, his limited ceiling is a major issue.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
Mixon wildly overshot my expectations in 2023. He finished as the overall RB6 and averaged 15.7 points per game in PPR. In stark contrast to his 2022 season – a season aggressively boosted by a five-touchdown performance – Mixon was very consistent in 2023, offering a reliable floor that never dipped below 8 fantasy points with multiple finishes over 20 fantasy points.
The Good News: Mixon is likely once again a cut candidate but he’s shown willingness to adjust his contract and with a star-studded free agent class, Mixon will likely stay in Cincinnati.
The Bad News: Much of Mixon’s production was with Jake Browning and the Bengals could increase the role of Chase Brown in 2024.
It’s tough to deny that the splits favor Mixon’s production with Browning rather than Burrow. Mixon’s efficiency was still underwhelming and he needs volume and goal line opportunities plus receiving work to repeat his 2023 success. Brown emerged late season as a strong pass catcher and Mixon has a whopping 139 targets over the past two seasons. Reduction in receiving work coupled with inconsistent volume alongside Burrow would cap Mixon’s upside, making him a potential bust candidate.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
Early best ball ADP shows Goedert should see a significant dip in ADP and many fantasy managers could see Goedert as a strong value pick with an overall ADP potentially over 100. Young tight ends Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid have solidified themselves as top-10 at the position. Combine that with the breakouts from David Njoku and Jake Ferguson and Goedert was simply pushed out of his typical top-10 position.
The Good News: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is an excellent hire for our fantasy purposes and the Eagles should see an uptick in plays and pass volume.
The Bad News: We’ve essentially had three seasons with Goedert as the Eagles TE1 (Zach Ertz was traded in 2021 after six games) and he’s failed to exceed TE11 and dealt with yearly injuries.
Goedert’s best year in terms of production was 2021 with 830 receiving yards and four touchdowns. That appears to be his ceiling. He’s had a total of 10 touchdowns over the past three seasons and with a running quarterback and two elite receivers, Goedert simply struggles to find consistency. Even with Moore in town, Goedert should continue to produce mediocre fantasy output. His discounted ADP is fantastic but you should aim higher or punt further.
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