Trends from the 2023 season are beginning to show in 2024 best ball drafts. From risky committee backs to rookie tight ends, early drafters are taking chances on players, hoping to hit on proven commodities like Puka Nacua, Nico Collins and Jahmyr Gibbs. Let’s take a moment to talk about which players are currently being overvalued.
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Overvalued Best Ball Players
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
De’Von Achane is being drafted as top-10 running back in best ball and the reason is clear — Achane is an explosive athlete with an unmatched ceiling in a high-powered offense. Achane finished as the overall RB24 in PPR but it’s undeniable he has the capabilities to finish as a top-three back if he plays a full, healthy season.
The Good News: Even excluding the first three games of the season, which includes outlier performances of a game with just one carry and his 200-yard, four-touchdown performance, Achane averaged an impressive 15.3 fantasy points per game in PPR.
The Bad News: Over that same time period, Raheem Mostert also averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game and will likely remain with the team in 2024.
Achane’s average draft position (ADP) is simply too rich for a committee back with consistency concerns. Similar to Gibbs, Achane will continue to share the backfield in 2024. However, unlike Gibbs, Achane hasn’t shown consistency nor the ability to remain a regular focal point of the offense. As players like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs find homes and players like Rachaad White retain their roles, Achane’s value will decrease compared to his ADP.
Brock Bowers (TE – TBD)
Rookie tight end fever is taking over and Brock Bowers is currently being drafted as a top-10 tight end in best ball. 2023 rookies Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid made a significant impact on the perception of rookie tight ends. LaPorta finished as the overall TE1 in PPR. Kincaid finished as the TE11 but had a strong showing when Dawson Knox was out. Rookie tight ends are no longer taboo. In the right location, Bowers could make an immediate impact. There’s inherent risk in the unknown of Bowers’ landing spot in pre-NFL Draft best ball contests.
The Good News: Bowers is an elite prospect and has all the characteristics of a tight end with true top-five potential, even as a rookie.
The Bad News: Bowers’ ADP is significantly higher than that of LaPorta and Kincaid in 2023.
I typically have no problem taking that pre-draft risk on a player who could be landing-spot dependent. Without an ADP discount, though, there’s not much upside to drafting Bowers. Given the strength and stability of the tight ends being drafted before him, Bowers is likely being taken at his ceiling — a risky move with a rookie tight end.
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
At first glance, Kenneth Walker’s ADP seems very reasonable. He’s being drafted in the fourth round on Underdog and could serve as an RB1 for team’s taking receivers through the first three rounds. But there’s a glaring issue with Walker’s ADP — his current value will drop once free agent and cut candidate running backs have clarity on their locations.
The Good News: Walker withstood incoming second round pick Zach Charbonnet. While Walker’s snap count and receiving work was less than ideal, he remained the lead back.
The Bad News: The Seattle Seahawks have a new coaching regime, Charbonnet will continue to syphon receiving work and Walker is being drafted at his ceiling.
I’d expect a better discount on Walker considering he averaged just 13.3 fantasy points per game in PPR and there’s no true improvement for his situation on the horizon. He’ll continue to see the majority of snaps out of the backfield but it’s not an overwhelming majority and his role lacks upside. He also remains touchdown dependent. In games where he doesn’t score, single-digit fantasy points will be the norm. His floor is low. His ceiling is capped. There are easily at least five players that should rise in ADP after free agency with higher ceilings than Walker. Walker could have value in the coming months but he’s currently overvalued.
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