Let’s dive into the 2024 NFL Free Agency Primer for Running Backs in Fantasy Football. Just like quarterbacks, free agency plays a crucial role in shaping Super Bowl contenders.
Here are some notable impending free agent running backs and how fantasy players should view them for 2024 fantasy football redraft leagues, best ball leagues and dynasty leagues.
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2024 NFL Running Back Free Agency Primer
Saquon Barkley
After playing the 2023 season on the franchise tag, Saquon Barkley is seeking a long-term deal from the Giants. Reports have stated that Big Blue will let him test the waters of free agency, and the 27-year-old will allow New York to match or exceed the best offer.
Despite missing three games due to a high ankle sprain, Barkley finished as the RB16 heading into Week 18, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game (RB11).
He posted the 3rd-highest snap rate in the NFL at 80% behind only Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey. 8th in touches (288) at 20.6 per game.
Barkley compares his talent to that of McCaffrey (one year younger), and we saw CMC go nuclear in the 49ers offense the past two seasons. If Houston – 5th-most available cap space – wants to take their offense to the next level, adding Barkley could be the exact move they need to make to upgrade from Devin Singletary/Dameon Pierce.
Barkley could benefit from a better-supporting cast, given his 40% rushing success rate, ranked 4th-worst in the NFL in 2023. He was still 7th in rushing yards per game (69).
The Giants are the current favorites (-150) to re-sign the talented running back, followed by the Texans (+275), Chargers (+400) and Bears (+1600).
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs had a rollercoaster 2023 season, starting slow but then performing well until a quad injury knocked him out of the last four games of the season.
Jacobs was on my do-not-draft list during the offseason, as the track record of RBs leading the NFL in touches the year before was horrible. Jacobs, unfortunately, lived up to the billing, finishing the year as the RB23 overall averaging 12.5 points per game (RB19).
He was at his best in three of his four starts under Antonio Pierce, seeing carry totals of 27, 26, 20 and 14 while averaging 14.9 points per game (RB6).
Las Vegas has interest in a reunion with Jacobs, but it will have to be at the right price given how well Zamir White played the last part of the season.
Current betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbooks have Jacobs at -200 to remain in Las Vegas. Then it’s the Chargers (+750), Texans (+850) and Ravens (+950).
Jacobs is by far one of the top free-agent running backs available at 26 years old. I wouldn’t read too much into Jacobs’s brutally inefficient season as a rusher in 2023 – as it looks more like a complete outlier compared to the rest of his career. If anything, it’s just another reason to fade the RB coming off a year after leading the NFL in touches. 2023 leader in touches? Christian McCaffrey. Second? Rachaad White at 336.
A.J. Dillon
A.J. Dillon was gifted a golden opportunity to earn a big payday as a 2024 free agent. Aaron Jones was injured throughout the season, putting Dillon in position to start before he landed himself on IR after Week 15. But he failed to provide anything of substance, averaging 3.4 yards per carry (5th-worst) with just two TD scores. His advanced rushing metrics were career-lows across the board, and he didn’t have the scores (despite a robust red-zone role) to mask the lack of rushing production. At age 26, Dillon still has the chance to carve out a red-zone role on a new offense, so don’t be too sour on his 2024 outlook should he land in an advantageous spot. As bad as he was in 2023, it looks much more like an outlier than a sign of decline for a relatively young and rare-sized RB at 247 pounds. The Raiders could be a potential fit under new OC Luke Getsy, who was with Dillon in Green Bay from 2020-2021.
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