The 2024 NFL Draft class has been considered an elite group of players for nearly three years. Now, the time has come.
While the class brings franchise-changing players at several positions, one of the most talked about in this draft cycle will undoubtedly be the quarterbacks, with five players at the position expected to go in the first round.
- Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
- Drake Maye (QB – UNC)
- Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
- J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan)
- Bo Nix (QB – Oregon)
Every year, there are franchise-changing hits and misses when drafting quarterbacks, so let’s dive into the projected first-round talent and find out who NFL teams should be avoiding come late April.
The top of the draft could start with three quarterbacks in a row, likely in this order: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. While these prospects come with unique flaws, they also bring tremendous talent. Assuming there are no trades, there is a fair chance that the Bears, Commanders and Patriots will all land their respective signal callers of the future.
Where the real red flags start to arise is with the next two on the list.
Overvalued NFL Draft Targets: Quarterbacks
J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan)
College Football National Championship winner J.J. McCarthy lands as my QB4 of the class, but the tier break from QB3 to QB4 is significant. McCarthy is young and can potentially become a long-term starter in the NFL, but we are often left with more questions than answers when evaluating his tape.
To start, let’s dive into what the Wolverine product does well. While inconsistent throughout the 2023 season, McCarthy had moments where he displayed NFL-caliber anticipation and pocket navigation. He regularly showed accuracy and the ability to throw from different arm angles. McCarthy is surprisingly mobile for his 6-foot-3, 202-pound frame, rushing for 632 yards while at Michigan.
Now, for the reasons NFL teams should be wary of investing a first-round pick in McCarthy. There seems to be a lack of confidence when throwing to the perimeter; he prefers to keep the ball over the middle of the field. Especially late season, McCarthy displayed an inability to play under pressure, at times developing a pause or hitch in his release and throwing from too narrow of a base. Finally, his field vision leaves you wanting. Ideally, he would sit behind a veteran for a year or two as he develops, but that is not the typical road map for first-round talents. He could be in trouble early if he does not land with a good coach and scheme.
Current Draft Projection: Top 16
Where He Should Go: Pick 29-45
Ideal Landing Spot: Detroit Lions. The Lions provide JJ McCarthy with a perfect opportunity to learn behind Jared Goff. McCarthy fits the Lions’ current scheme and would not have to default to relying solely on his arm with all the young talents on the Detroit offense.
Bo Nix (QB – Oregon)
Bo Nix was impressive in his final season for Oregon. The counting and efficiency metrics were all there for Nix. He eclipsed 4,500 passing yards and 45 touchdowns, with only three interceptions while adding 234 rushing yards and six scores. Nix accomplished all this while completing an impressive 77.4% of his passes. His time at Oregon was a much-needed reset from what he accomplished (or didn’t accomplish) at Auburn. Nix will enter the NFL as an older rookie. He will be 24 at the start of the 2024 NFL season.
Diving into what Nix does well, we have to start with his playmaking ability. Nix is one of the better players in this class when playing off-script. He can use his legs and hit every area of the field with his impressive, if not elite, arm elasticity. There are very few arm angles that Nix can’t throw from successfully. He shows good anticipation, which also helps him be an accurate passer in most situations.
Where Nix struggles is more on the technical side of playing quarterback. His footwork can be sloppy, rushed and inconsistent. He will need to clean this up at the next level to be a plus starter in the NFL. Additionally, he has struggled to fit the ball into tight windows and may have difficulty against NFL DBs. The final knock for Nix is something that we have seen from many athletic prospects, but it is important to note. He can sometimes panic when he feels pressure and can default to his athleticism instead of navigating the pocket.
Current Draft Projection: Top 20
Where He Should Go: Pick 47-57
Ideal Landing Spot: Los Angeles Rams. The Rams would be a perfect fit for Bo Nix. While he struggles to navigate tight windows, he can hit elite accuracy numbers when given the talent around him. Enter Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. We don’t know how long Matthew Stafford will continue to play, but if he considers retirement an option in the next two seasons, Nix could fill that void nicely.
2024 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
Quarterbacks
- Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
- Drake Maye (QB – North Carolina)
- Jordan Travis (QB – Florida State)
- Joe Milton III (QB – Tennessee)
- Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
- Spencer Rattler (QB – South Carolina)
- Michael Pratt (QB – Tulane)
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington)
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