As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2023 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2023 drafts. This will be a five-part series, reviewing each pick of the first five rounds. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP from NFBC Online Championships. I chose NFBC over sources like CBS, Yahoo and ESPN as I could not find those historical ADPs.
Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2024 research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price. Which players were busts? And even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues.
The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format, so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2024 season, please contact me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at picks 49-60 from the 2023 draft season.
- 2023 ADP Review: Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
2023 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap (Picks 49-60)
49. Cristian Javier (SP – HOU)
The hype train was full speed ahead for Javier entering 2023, and that train was derailed by the season’s end. Javier did make 31 starts, throwing a career-high 162 innings, but the production did not follow. Javier produced his worst ERA at 4.56 with a 5.16 xFIP and 4.76 SIERA. Javier’s strikeouts dropped to 23.1% after back-to-back seasons over 30%. Javier’s velocity dropped, and his fastball was extremely hittable, resulting in a bad fantasy season.
50. Shane Bieber (SP – CLE)
This past year was a disappointing season for Bieber as he battled injuries and only made 21 starts. He saw his ERA rise to 3.80, which is not horrible but unusual for Bieber. More importantly, Bieber’s strikeout rate dropped from 25% to 20.1%, resulting in a horrendous 13.7% K-BB. Bieber was too hittable and was fortunate to have a 3.80 ERA based on his 4.29 SIERA. Bieber appears past his prime and is no longer an early-round pitching target.
51. Ozzie Albies (3B – ATL)
After a shortened 2022 due to injuries, Albies bounced back significantly in 2023. Albies hit .280 with 33 home runs, 13 stolen bases, 96 runs scored and 109 RBIs. Albies once again showcased great power to go with extraordinary run production. Hitting behind Acuna and ahead of Riley and Olson helped. The only knock on Albies was the 13 stolen bases after stealing 20 in 2021, but we shall see if the steals return. Regardless, Albies was a solid pick in round 5.
52. Jordan Romano (RP – TOR)
Romano rewarded fantasy managers who took a chance on him in the early rounds. Romano collected 36 saves for the second consecutive year with a 2.90 ERA, a 29% strikeout rate and 19.4% K-BB. The only major negative from Romano was an increased WHIP to 1.22. Romano remains one of the elite closing options on draft day.
53. Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)
Carroll had high expectations in the 2023 draft season, and those who used an early draft pick on him were heavily rewarded. Carroll won the NL Rookie of the Year, hitting .285 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. Carroll even scored 116 runs leading off for the D-Backs while striking out less than 20% of the time. Carroll is now a top-5 fantasy outfielder, and the days of a fifth-round Carroll are long gone.
54. Devin Williams (MIL – RP)
Williams entered 2023 as the Brewers closer for the first time in his career and returned a great fantasy season. Williams collected 36 saves with a 1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 37.7% strikeout rate. Williams was elite in 2023, and he should be elite again in 2024, barring a trade at some point.
55. Luis Castillo (SEA – SP)
The Mariners traded for Castillo in 2022 to become their ace, and in 2023, he performed like an ace. Castillo made 33 starts, throwing 197 innings with a 3.34 ERA. He managed a serviceable 1.10 WHIP with an elite 20.3% K-BB. Castillo saw his groundball rate drop 8% in 2023 as he became a different pitcher in a pitcher’s park, and that has allowed him to become an even better pitcher for fantasy managers going forward.
56. Julio Urias (SP – LAD)
Urias was underperforming on the field, and then his season ended because he was a piece of trash off the field.
57. Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI)
Wheeler put together another workhorse season in 2023, throwing 192 innings with a 3.61 ERA. It was Wheeler’s third time in the past four seasons (excluding 2020) where he threw at least 180 innings. Wheeler also had a 3.53 SIERA to go with a 22% K-BB, Wheeler’s third consecutive season with a K-BB over 20%. Wheeler is an ace, and he performed like one in 2023.
58. Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)
Gausman put together another Cy Young-worthy season in 2023, his third outstanding season. He threw 185 innings with a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The innings and ratios were great, but he once again was a strikeout juggernaut, striking out 237 over 185 innings pitched, which was suitable for a 23.9% K-BB. Gausman is an ace, and that shouldn’t change in 2024.
59. Adolis Garcia (OF – TEX)
Garcia continued to be a powerhouse at the plate in 2023 as he hit 39 home runs while hitting .245 with 108 runs scored and 107 RBI. That was great production in 3.5 categories; the only downfall for Garcia in 2023 was nine stolen bases, down from 25 in 2022. If the steals return, then Garcia is a top-round pick, but he’s still an outstanding top-five-round pick even if he does not steal; the added steals would be a bonus.
60. Will Smith (C – LAD)
Many hoped Smith would see a lot of time at DH to gain extra plate appearances for a catcher, but the Dodgers’ adding JD Martinez halted that. Smith still hit .261 over 126 games with 19 home runs. That was the first time Smith did not hit 20+ home runs in three years, but he still was a significant contributor in runs and RBI. Smith is still a solid fantasy catcher, but the extra at-bats will not be there again this year with the Dodgers adding Shohei Ohtani.
Conclusion
Round 5 started rough with Javier and Bieber, but overall, it was a strong round. Albies and Garcia were great bats, with Carroll returning fantastic value. You had elite closers in Williams and Romano on the mound to go with aces in Castillo, Wheeler and Gausman. Overall, Round 5 added significant value to some early-round picks.
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