Josh Shepardson | Tue, Feb 13th 2024, 7:14am EST

12 Unlucky Starting Pitchers: Draft or Fade? (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

ERA minus FIP is a quick and dirty stat available to sort at FanGraphs to help identify lucky and unlucky pitchers. No statistic is infallible. Yet, a positive ERA minus FIP indicates a pitcher was unlucky, and a negative suggests they were lucky, absent more data.

The subjects of deeper scrutiny in this piece are the qualified starting pitchers and a handful of eye-catching ones with at least 80 innings in 2023 and the highest positive ERA minus FIP marks.

2023 Positive ERA Minus FIP Leaders

Spencer Strider (SP - ATL) | 9.2 ADP

Spencer Strider's 3.86 ERA in 2023 didn't do him justice. According to FanGraphs, among qualified pitchers in 2023, Strider was second in xERA (3.09), second in FIP (2.85), first in xFIP (2.92), first in SIERA (2.86), ninth in WHIP (1.09), first in strikeout rate (36.8 K%) and first in wins (20). According to the value-based-ranking (VBR) metric, Strider was the third-most-valuable pitcher last season despite lousy luck relative to his eye-popping underlying data. He's worth his Average Draft Position (ADP).

Zack Wheeler (SP - PHI) | 25.6 ADP

Zack Wheeler was the 10th-most-valuable pitcher last year. Yet, his 3.61 ERA was higher than all of his ERA estimators. Philadelphia's ace had a 3.21 xERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.54 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA. Wheeler also had a 1.08 WHIP and 26.9 K% in 192.0 innings. The veteran righty is an elite workhorse and a reliable, high-upside SP1 at a fair price.

Aaron Nola (SP - PHI) | 46.6 ADP

Aaron Nola was killed by homers (1.49 HR/9) and a dreadful strand rate (66.4 LOB%) last season. As a result, his 4.46 ERA was much higher than his 3.77 xERA, 4.03 FIP, 3.63 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA. Unfortunately, the veteran righty had the same issues in 2021, resulting in a 4.63 ERA versus a 3.35 xERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.37 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA.

Nola had a 29.6 CSW% last season, the lowest mark of his career. Fortunately, he closed the season on a high note. Nola twirled a 2.35 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 3.13 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, 4.5 BB% and 25.8 K% in four starts spanning 23.0 innings in the playoffs. Nola can live up to his top-50 ADP. Nevertheless, having only to go back to 2021 to see the same issues that plagued him in 2023 provides a reason for pause before pulling the trigger on him at his ADP.

Zach Eflin (SP - TB) | 81.6 ADP

Zach Eflin is grossly undervalued as the SP23 in ADP. He was the sixth-most-valuable pitcher last season. Moreover, Eflin's success wasn't a fluke. The Rays unlocked the veteran hurler.

Across a workmanlike 177.2 innings, Eflin was third among qualified pitchers in xERA (3.11), fourth in FIP (3.01), third in xFIP (3.12), third in SIERA (3.30), second in WHIP (1.02) and 12th in strikeout rate (26.5 K%). Eflin should be drafted at least a dozen picks earlier than his current ADP, making him a screaming value outside the top 75 picks.

Dylan Cease (SP - CWS) | 95.4 ADP

Dylan Cease was unlucky last year. However, his 3.72 FIP was his best ERA estimator and the only one under 4.00. His pitching data from last season has a handful of red flags. Thus, he was featured in "10 Pitchers to Avoid Drafting." He's slightly cheaper than he was when that piece was published. Nonetheless, he's not worth a top-100 pick.

Mitch Keller (SP - PIT) | 147.6 ADP

Mitch Keller is an adequate gamble at his ADP. The righty's 4.21 ERA was higher than his 4.16 xERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.70 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA last season. Keller also had a career-low 6.7 BB% and a 25.5 K%, his highest mark since debuting in 2019.

The most significant concerns about Keller building on last season's numbers are his .333 wOBA yielded to 430 left-handed batters and a nosedive for his fastball velocity to close the campaign. In Keller's first 26 starts last season, his fastball averaged 94.9 mph before plummeting to 93.5 mph in his final six starts. Keller's performance didn't suffer from the reduced heat, but it's worth monitoring in spring training.

Tyler Glasnow (SP - LAD) | 43.2 ADP & Tarik Skubal (SP - DET) | 52.0 ADP

Tyler Glasnow and Tarik Skubal are two peas in a pod. Both pitchers have sterling ERA estimators and elite strikeout ability. Unfortunately, they're each drafted slightly too early for their probable workloads.

Glasnow pitched 138.1 innings in 2023, and Skubal threw 95.0. Unless the Dodgers and Tigers throw caution to the wind and allow both of them to build on last season's workloads significantly, they'll have difficulty producing value commensurate with their ADPs as the SP12 and SP15. Shohei Ohtani (132.0 innings) and Kyle Bradish (168.2 innings) were the only top-15 starting pitchers who threw fewer than 170.0 innings in 2023. Ohtani's hitting also impacted his VBR.

Hunter Brown (SP - HOU) | 174.0 ADP

Hunter Brown is a breakout candidate this season. He had a 5.09 ERA in 155.2 innings in his rookie season. However, the righty's 4.27 xERA, 4.37 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA were more encouraging. Brown also had a 52.4 GB%, 26.8 K%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.

Gamers don't have to squint to see a fantasy asset. Brown also struggled down the stretch, and he admitted he was fatigued. In 94.0 innings in the first half last season, Brown had a 4.12 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 BB% and 28.1 K%. Brown would be a rock-solid pick at his ADP if he can duplicate his first-half numbers over an entire season.

Brandon Pfaadt (SP - ARI) | 240.2 ADP

Brandon Pfaadt was featured in "10 Must-Have Pitchers to Draft" when his ADP was 225.5. He's even cheaper now, making him a no-brainer. Readers should check out that piece for a thorough analysis of why Pfaadt is an ideal pick at his bargain price.

Taj Bradley (SP - TB) | 322.4 ADP

Taj Bradley's 5.59 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) totaling 104.2 innings in his rookie season was putrid, and his 4.55 xERA and 4.79 FIP weren't fantasy-friendly, either. Still, he had a 3.83 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA, 28.0 K% and eye-catching pitch-modeling data. The young righty had marks of a 110 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 105 Pitching+.

Kutter Crawford (SP, RP - BOS) | 334.0 ADP

Kutter Crawford is another American League East pitch-modeling darling available after the 300th pick. He had a 106 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+ last season. He had other encouraging numbers. However, I'll hold off on sharing those until he's included in a forthcoming piece about RP-eligible starting pitchers to target in fantasy drafts.

More Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL