The 2023 MLB season is in the books, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the upcoming campaign. While much of the MLB landscape is sure to change over the offseason, it can be helpful to get an early sense of where the experts stand in terms of initial fantasy baseball rankings. We’ll have you covered as we approach the spring and new season. Let’s take a look at a few early-round fantasy baseball draft values to target.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values to Target
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS/OF – SD): ECR 9 | ADP 7
In 2023, Fernando Tatis Jr. showed a deceiving decline, batting .257/.322/.449 post-suspension. Yet, a deeper look reveals a promising expected slash line of .282/.332/.511, with a low BABIP (.299) impacting his performance. Tatis achieved a career-low strikeout rate (22.2%), hitting 25 homers and swiping 29 bases. A weaker team offense hinders him, so his overall stats don’t reflect his potential. Avoiding off-field mishaps, Tatis, at 25, is a strong candidate for a significant rebound. He’s a steal in drafts if available at a reduced price.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR): ECR 27| ADP 23
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. played 156 games and raised his walk rate while lowering his strikeout rate. Those were the highlights. Unfortunately, his other numbers took a fall across the board. The good news for 2024 is that Vladdy’s expected numbers were more in line with what fantasy managers were looking for when they drafted him. For his age-25 season, he should see a bounce back to mid-30s in homers and close to 100/100 in runs and RBIs. The biggest discrepancy was his .264 average compared to his xBA of .295. Vladdy should be an asset, but he is now a Round 3 or 4 guy.
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM): ECR 28 | ADP 25
Francisco Lindor had the quietest 31-homer season in recent memory. He also stole 31 bases, scored 108 runs, and drove in 98. To put this in perspective, among shortstops who played 20 games at the position, Lindor’s ranks are as follows: Home runs (2nd), runs (1st), RBI (1st), and stolen bases (7th). His incredible fantasy year was buried under the Mets’ real-life struggles and underperformance, but make no mistake about it. Lindor is a Top 5 shortstop who is perceived as much lower. Take advantage of the discount if it is available in your leagues.
What is Fantasy Baseball?
Fantasy baseball is an online game where participants act as managers of virtual baseball teams based on real-life Major League Baseball (MLB) players. The performance of these players in actual games determines the results in the fantasy league. It’s a blend of skill, strategy, and a little bit of luck, akin to the real-world decisions team managers must make.
Basic Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Success
1. Understand Your League’s Format and Scoring
Before drafting your team, it’s essential to understand the scoring system and rules of your specific league, as this will influence your drafting and management strategy. Knowing whether you’re in a points-based, category-based, or head-to-head league will guide you in selecting players whose strengths align with the scoring system.
2. Drafting Your Team Wisely
A solid draft is the foundation of a successful season. Here are a few tips for the drafting phase:
- Balanced Team: Ensure you have a balanced team with a mix of power hitters, average hitters, speedsters, starting pitchers, and relievers.
- Position Scarcity: Be aware of the depth of talent at each position. Some positions, like shortstop, may have fewer high-quality players, making it beneficial to draft a top player at that position early.
- High-Floor Players: Early in the draft, focus on players with a proven track record of consistency.
- Upside Picks: In the later rounds, look for “upside” players. These are athletes who have the potential to outperform their draft position.
3. In-Season Management
- Stay Active: Constantly look for ways to improve your team through waivers, trades, and free-agent pickups.
- Mind the Matchups: Pay attention to player matchups, platoon splits, and ballparks. Starting a pitcher in a hitter-friendly park, for example, can be risky.
- Injury Management: Stay on top of player injuries and have backups ready for your key players.
Check out our early 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit 
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