IT’S PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TIME, BABY! Now, the season after the season begins. Anything can happen in the playoffs. We have seen in previous years Cinderella teams keep the magic going and advance deep into the playoffs. We have also witnessed NFL Goliaths get trounced by lowly-seeded teams. My body is ready for the chaos.

The chaos of injuries and a playoff slate that extends across three days should make it a wonderful DFS slate for us to get different with our lineups. Embrace variance. Embrace the wildness of playoff DFS. Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Welcome to the Super Wild Card Weekend Primer. Enjoy.

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The Primer: Wild Card Weekend

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

• CLE -2, O/U 44.5
• Browns vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: We have already seen what this looks like. In Week 16, Flacco carved this secondary up with 368 passing yards (64.3% completion rate), 8.8 yards per attempt, three passing scores, and 26.8 fantasy points. Flacco has been playing with his hair on fire weekly. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback, but he has also been threading the needle with some concerning deeper metrics. Among the same sample, he is 42nd in CPOE, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, and has the 14th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. I’m not forecasting this week as being the end of the line for the Flacco train, but I’m just highlighting that no one should be surprised if the wheels fall off inexplicably any week. Houston has been a Swiss cheese pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest CPOE since Week 12. They have also been vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing the 10th-highest CPOE and the second-most deep passing yards in that span.

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is a baller extraordinaire. He has the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will have his work cut out for him against a talented pass defense that has still allowed the third-most passing touchdowns since Week 12. That’s been the only splotch on any otherwise impressive 2023 resume for the Browns. Since Week 12, they have held passers to the fifth-lowest passer rating, the lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE. Stroud could be a contrarian play on this slate, but he has crushed the Browns’ primary coverage tendencies all season, so I won’t be surprised if he does it again. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, Stroud has the second-highest yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: The last time Singletary faced this run defense, he ran for 4.89 yards per carry, but he only had nine rushing attempts. He finished with 12 touches and 63 total yards. He is the Texans’ every down bellcow. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps with 25 touches and 65 total yards. Singletary ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. If Houston feeds him, he should finish with a juicy stat line. Since Week 12, Cleveland has bled out the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.92). 51.4% of Singletary’s runs have been via gap plays.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: In each of the last three starts Cooper has made with Flacco, he’s seen at least eight targets and finished with at least 77 receiving yards. Cooper ranks sixth in deep targets and 30th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Cooper has a 21.9% target share, a 42.4% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 28.5% first-read share. In this sample of games, he also ranks second in end-zone targets with five. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Nico Collins: In the five games Collins has played this season where Tank Dell has been limited or absent, he has soaked up a huge piece of the passing pie with a 22.9% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In the 13 games this season that Collins has played at 50% of the snaps, he has commanded a 31% TPRR against Cover 2 and Cover 3 with 3.9 YPRR and a ridiculous 0.74 fantasy points per route run. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he ranks second to only Tyreek Hill in fantasy points per route run. Collins should smash again this week, and he’s as close to a lock button play as you can get.

No elevations for #Texans this week, and, yes, it's a positive sign for their injured wide receivers. Both Noah Brown and Robert Woods are trending toward being active for playing game and playing as long as pregame warmups go smoothly, per league sources @KPRC2

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 12, 2024

Noah Brown: Brown looks likely to suit up this week. Brown has flashed a ceiling this season with three games with at least 82 receiving yards and 22 PPR points. In his eight full games this season, he has seen six red zone targets. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In those eight games, he had an 18% TPRR and 2.41 YPRR. Brown is more in play for the Saturday slate if you’re stacking Stroud. You probably don’t have to go that far off the board with the six-game slate unless you are playing Stroud.

Xavier Hutchinson: Noah Brown and Robert Woods are still nowhere close to 100%. We’ll see if either can play this week, but assuming both are out this week, then Hutchinson is in play for C.J. Stroud stacks again this week. In Week 18, with Brown and Woods out, Hutchinson had a 58.1% route run rate, a 15.4% target share, and a 77,8% slot rate. The Browns have been vulnerable to the slot over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Cleveland has allowed the fourth-most receiving touchdowns and the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku has been otherworldly, with Flacco averaging nine targets, six receptions, 78 receiving yards, and 0.8 receiving scores per game. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Njoku has had a 21.5% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Houston has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Dalton Schultz: Houston’s offseason investment in Schultz has turned out well. Schultz finished the season as the TE11 in fantasy points per game with four games with at least 14 PPR points. Schultz ranks sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In his 14 full games, against Cover 2 or Cover 3, Schultz has had a strong 24% TPRR and 2.07 YPRR. He is in play for Stroud or game stacks. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the 10th-most receptions and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -4.5, O/U 43.5
• Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa had a tough day the last time he faced this pass defense, finishing with only 12.4 fantasy points, 193 passing yards, and 5.7 yards per attempt. Toss his full-season stats out the window. Since Week 14 among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, he has still been playing pretty good football while not up to the level his full-season numbers might suggest. He has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 16th in CPOE, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate, but sadly, he has only been 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Evaluating the strength of the Chiefs’ pass defense is tough because they have been playing pushover quarterbacks since Week 15 with games against Bailey Zappe, Aidan O’Connell, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick. To their credit, they have played well against the last three good quarterbacks they have played Ja:len Hurts, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love. Against that trio, they allowed only 6.5 yards per attempt, a -2.8% CPOE, and only a 70.7% adjusted completion rate. Tagovailoa is in play for large-field GPPs or MME only.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has not been Mahomes this season. The stats have been depressed. The play has been shaky, BUT this is the season after the season. The playoffs are a different beast entirely and I won’t fade Mahomes on a six gamer especially when he won’t be popular. Since Week 8 among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 26th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing yards per game, and 23rd in passer rating. During this stretch he has had to suffer through the third-highest drop rate and lose the most yards due to drops. It has been brutal for Mahomes. Mahomes’ rushing upside in the playoffs has historically helped his fantasy output. During his career in the regular season, he has averaged 3.8 rushing attempts and 20.2 rushing yards per game. In the postseason, those numbers climb to 4.78 rushing attempts per game and 27.3 rushing yards. That might not sound like much but in 29% of his postseason games he has rushed for at least 44 yards. If we drop that number to 29 yards then his hit rate climbs to 50%. The Dolphins have been vulnerable to the pass since Week 13 allowing the fourth highest yards per attempt, fourth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against those two coverage types this season, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes ranks 11th in passer rating, ninth in adjusted completion rate, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Assuming Mostert is back this week, he should be the clear lead back in a smash spot for Miami. In Weeks 14-15 with De’Von Achane active, Mostert played 54-64% of the snaps, averaging 19.5 touches and 71.5 total yards with a stranglehold on the red zone work. In those two games, Mostert had 14 red zone opportunities versus Achane’s three. Mostert continues to chug along, ranking sixth in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.91), and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Mostert 64.6% zone).

De’Von Achane: Achane is in play for GPPs if you’re running multiple teams or MMEing, but if you’re only living the single-entry life, he won’t make my builds. In Weeks 14-15 with Mostert and Achane active, Achane has taken a backseat with only three red zone opportunities versus Mostert’s 14 while he averaged 12 touches and 66.5 total yards (39-46% snap rate). Achane is still incredibly explosive and a threat to break off any touch for a long gain. He ranks first in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Achane is still facing a wonderful rushing matchup. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.91), and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Achane 47.6% zone).

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill has been a monster this season, with at least 20 PPR points in 63% of his games. He ranks third in deep targets, fourth in red zone targets, and second in total touchdowns. With that said, he was held in check by the Chiefs in their last meeting, securing eight of his ten targets for 62 scoreless yards. This was with L’Jarius Sneed only following Hill on 35.3% of his routes. With Kansas City’s plan to neutralize Hill working without a Sneed shadow last time, I don’t envision them changing things up this week. I don’t forecast Sneed following him all day. Since Week 13, Kansas City has utilized two high on 69.9% of their defensive snaps (second-highest rate). In the 13 games Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been active, against two-high, Hill has seen a 29.1% target share and a 42.3% air-yard share with 3.43 YPRR and a 36.3% first-read share. He has had six end-zone targets (Waddle four). Hill faces a tough task against a Chiefs’ secondary that has held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest PPR points per target since Week 12. I’m open to fading him in some lineups this week.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddles has had a more muted season in 2023, with only two games with more than 20 PPR points and four outings with at least 18 PPR points. That does display that his ceiling is still there, but we haven’t seen it as much. His touchdown equity in this offense has evaporated, with only two red zone targets in his last eight games played. He is a good leverage play, though, with Hill likely to be popular. Since Week 13, Kansas City has utilized two high on 69.9% of their defensive snaps (second-highest rate). In the 13 games Tyreek Hill and Waddle have been active, against two-high, Waddle has had a 22.5% target share, a 27.7% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. The Chiefs have held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game since Week 12. Fading both Hill and Waddle is in play this week, but I can’t fully fade either.

Rashee Rice: Since Week 12, Rice has been a stud ranking 13th in target share (25.2%), eighth in receiving yards per game (86.3), 10th in YPRR (2.77), and 15th in first-read share (30.3%). He was also ninth in fantasy points per route run. Over that span, Kansas City made it a point to force the ball to him as he was second in designed target rate (30.4%) and first in designed targets. Rice ranks seventh in red zone targets this season. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Rice has had a 30% TPRR and 3.27 YPRR. Since Week 13, Miami has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Justin Watson: Watson should be in your MME player pool. Since Week 13, Miami has struggled to defend against deep passing, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt with targets 20-plus yards downfield while also giving up the highest CPOE to deep passing and the second-most deep passing yards. Watson leads the team in deep targets (21). Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Watson has led the team with five deep targets. Since Week 13, Miami has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce was kept in check during their last meeting with only 14 receiving yards, but I don’t expect that to be the case this week. Kelce hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards since Week 14, and he hasn’t managed more than 20 PPR points since Week 7, so you can say that he’s due. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Kelce has led the team with a 21.3% target share and a 27% air-yard share while chipping in 2.18 YPRR. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the ninth-most fantasy points, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Noah Gray: If you are going the MME route this week, Gray needs to be in your player pool. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against these coverages, Gray has had a 29% TPRR (third on the team) and 2.86 YPRR. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the ninth-most fantasy points, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -10, O/U 38
• Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen is the QB1 in fantasy points per game with eight outings with 25 fantasy points per more. Since Joe Brady has been the offensive coordinator Josh Allen‘s passing accuracy has been an adventure which I don’t think is a Brady thing but it has to be mentioned. Since Week 11, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen ranks 14th in yards per attempt, 22nd in CPOE, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. That hasn’t stopped him from ranking 13th in passing yards per game, 12th in passing touchdowns (tied), and second in fantasy points per dropback.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris has been a volume monster since Week 16 as Pittsburgh’s clear leadback. He has played 44-60% of the snaps, averaging 25.7 touches and 111 total yards. He has crushed Warren during this stretch in red zone usage with 24 opportunities versus Warren’s six. Among 49 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 10th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 13, the Bills’ run defense has dissolved into a bottom-tier unit, allowing the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the highest rushing touchdown rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest success rate to zone runs (Harris 56.1% zone). Harris won’t be popular, especially for the six-game slate, but he’s an amazing play.

Jaylen Warren: Warren is an MME and large field play only. Since Week 16, he has remained in the backseat while Harris drives the bus for the Steelers’ run game. He has averaged 14.7 touches and 67.3 total yards in this timeframe while losing the red zone battle to Harris ( six vs. 24 opportunities). Warren and Achane are the Spiderman GIF this week. RB2s for their respective teams with elite explosiveness and big play ability. Warren ranks third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a pushover Bills’ run defense. Since Week 13, the Bills’ run defense has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the highest rushing touchdown rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest success rate to zone runs (Warren 53.0% zone).

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Johnson has had a bumpy season, but he has been red hot lately with at least 57 receiving yards in four of his last five games and touchdowns in four of his last six games. He has six red zone targets across his last seven games. This is another week that the target volume should flow to Johnson. Since Week 12, Buffalo has the seventh-highest rate of two high, which has been Johnson’s wheelhouse. Since Week 7, against two high, Johnson has been the clear leader for the passing attack with a 22% target share (George Pickens 16.1%), a 41.1% air-yard share (Pickens 27.4%), 1.85 YPRR (Pickens 0.99), and a 29.2% first-read share (Pickens 19.5%). Johnson is a volume play in a tough matchup. He also won’t be a popular play despite having a strong game last week against another two high-loving secondary. Since Week 14, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs’ lull has been discussed at length, but he did have a small bounce back last week, securing seven of his eight targets with 87 receiving yards. It was his first double-digit outing (15.7 PPR) since Week 12. Diggs has seen his red zone usage drop off the map with Joe Brady at the helm, with only three red zone targets over his last seven games. Since Week 13, the Steelers have had the second-highest rate of single-high (64.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Diggs has had a 27.2% target share, a 30.3% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Diggs’ efficiency hasn’t been there against single-high, which is concerning, but the volume should be there this week. Diggs could see shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week, but he has been struggling lately with D.K. Metcalf and Tee Higgins both logging at least 91 receiving yards, with Porter following them on 66.7-78.4% of their routes. Since Week 14, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir: Shakir has flashed a ceiling since becoming a full-time starter in Week 8 with three games of 92 receiving yards or higher. He doesn’t have much touchdown equity, with only one red zone target and one touchdown in this span, but he doesn’t have to score to make the optimal build this week. Since Week 13, the Steelers have had the second-highest rate of single-high (64.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Shakir has had a 10% target share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 9.8% first-read share. With Gabriel Davis out this week, I expect the Bills to lean more on Shakir. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: After a huge dip in Kincaid’s production in Weeks 15-16, he has rebounded nicely with 7.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 85.5 receiving yards per game (71.8% route run rate). Since Week 13, the Steelers have had the second-highest rate of single-high (64.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Kincaid has had a 17.8% target share (second on the team), 1.61 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share (second on the team). Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the second-most fantasy points, and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -7, O/U 50.5
• Packers vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has been nothing short of amazing since the light came on in Week 9. Since that game, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in fantasy points per dropback, 11th in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, and fourth in CPOE. Love has logged eight games this season with at least 20 fantasy points. Love faces a Dallas secondary that has looked mortal over the last few weeks. Since Week 13, Dallas has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt while also ranking 16th in CPOE and 17th in passing yards per game allowed. The pass rush has ranked first in time to pressure in that timeframe but only 20th in pressure rate. Love has been elite against pressure since Week 9, ranking fifth in pressured yards per attempt, fourth in pressured passer rating, and fifth in CPOE when facing pressure. With a smattering of top-shelf quarterbacks on this slate, Love will get lost in the shuffle, but he’s a fantastic play.

Dak Prescott: Since Week 8, Prescott has been balling out, ranking seventh in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in CPOE. Over his last 11 games, he has been fifth in fantasy points per dropback and highly accurate throw rate. Prescott should crush a Packers’ secondary that, since Week 13, has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 10th-highest CPOE. Green Bay has struggled versus deep passing as well all season, allowing the sixth-highest deep completion rate and the ninth-highest deep passer rating.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has returned with a fury since Week 16. Over his last three games, he has averaged 23.3 touches and 135.3 total yards. Last week, he played a season-high 82% of the snaps without A.J. Dillon in the lineup. Jones is FINALLY fully healthy. If the snap count last week doesn’t illustrate that, then Jones’s 6.3% explosive run rate and 3.33 yards after contact per attempt since Week 16 should. It also helps that since Week 13, Green Bay’s offensive line has been clearing the road, ranking ninth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and second in Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Jones should have no issues running on Dallas, who, since Week 13, has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Across their last six games, Dallas has allowed the third-highest yards per carry (4.99) and the highest success rate (62.7%) to gap runs. Since Week 16, only 39.7% of Jones’ runs have been on gap plays, but Jones ranks third in gap yards per carry (5.92) and seventh in gap success rate.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 8, Pollard has averaged 16.9 touches and 70 total yards, while his tackle-breaking metrics have been markedly improved. Since that point, among 51 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces off against a Green Bay run defense that remains one of the league’s worst. Since Week 13, they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards, the 12th-highest explosive run rate (tied), and yards per carry to zone runs (4.63). Since Week 8, Pollard has seen 59.6% of his carry volume on zone runs. Pollard can be stacked with Prescott or played as a one-off as leverage off a popular Dallas passing attack.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game this season. He led the NFL in targets (181) while also ranking 14th in deep targets and first in red zone targets. Since Week 11, the Packers have had the 11th-highest rate of single high (56.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Lamb has had a 35.4% target share, a 39.1% air-yard share, 3.54 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. Since Week 13, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 10th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has been a touchdown-scoring machine with eight scores across his last 11 games (nine red zone targets). The touchdowns have sustained his fantasy success because the yardage hasn’t been there, with only three games on his ledger in that span with more than 50 receiving yards. Since Week 11, the Packers have had the 11th-highest rate of single high (56.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Cooks has had a 17% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Cooks is one off worthy, stackable with Lamb and Prescott, or usable with a Green Bay Packer in a mini stack.

Jayden Reed: Reed has been an unsung hero all season, even before blowing up down the stretch. He finished 21st in deep targets, 14th in red zone targets, and fifth in total touchdowns. He has five games this season with at least 19 PPR points. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Since Week 8, in the games in which he has played at 30% of the snaps against single-high, Reed has had a 19.4% target share and 2.37 YPRR. If Watson misses this week, look for Reed to lead the way against single-high. In the six games this season in which Watson wasn’t a full-time player, Reed has led the wide receivers with a 32% TPRR and 2.34 YPRR against single-high. The Green Bay wide receiver usage has been a mess with their litany of injuries all season. Reed is a strong play this week in a game stack, as a one-off, or as a stacking partner with Love.

Christian Watson: Watson has practiced on a limited basis all week (hamstring). He has been listed as questionable but is considered to be a game-time decision. Watson has been a high-leverage usage machine when on the field. In his nine games played, he has soaked up 14 deep targets and 11 red zone looks. Watson disappointed many in fantasy this season, but to say he was bad this season is inaccurate. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 33rd in fantasy points per route run and 30th in expected fantasy points per route run. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). In Watson’s eight games as a full-time player, he has ranked second among the wide receivers (tied with Reed) in TPRR (22%) and YPRR (2.28) against single-high. Watson is a strong play this week if he suits up if you build lineups with him in it, and he’s out pivot to Dontayvion Wicks.

Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks has been a strong option for Green Bay against single-high when Watson has been active, especially when he has been out. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Overall, this season against single-high Wicks has a 22% TPRR and 2.10 YPRR. Without Watson on the field, Wicks’ TPRR against single high jumps to 24% with 1.94 YPRR. Double stacks with Love this week are all over the map. If Watson plays this week and is a full-time player, he is my favorite, but if Watson is out, then it’s Reed, followed by Wicks.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -3, O/U 51.5
• Rams vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Since Week 12 Stafford has been playing some of the best football of his career. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked third in passing touchdowns and passer rating, fifth in yards per attempt,and seventh in CPOE. Stafford should have a wonderful homecoming this week against a pass defense that since Week 13 has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest CPOE.

Jared Goff: Goff has had one of the best seasons of his career. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in passing yards per game, ninth in passer rating, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback and CPOE. The Rams have evolved into an absolute pass funnel. Since Week 13 they have been carved up by quarterbacks allowing the third-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-highest CPOE.

Running Backs

With short slates, you have to take stances because you can’t play everyone. For this Wild Card slate, I’m fading both of these backfields and investing in these passing attacks. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, followed by the Rams with the fifth-fewest. During this span, Los Angeles has allowed the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt, followed by Detroit, who has permitted the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua: Nacua finished as the WR6 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in targets, eighth in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, and fifth in yards after the catch. He was also 20th in red zone targets and 26th in deep targets. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 12-17 against single-high, Nacua has had a 21.7% target share, a 25.4% air-yard share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 23.5% first read share. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game while ranking ninth in red zone targets. He scored at least 19 PPR points in 33% of his games this season. Kupp could have a vintage performance this week. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 12-17 against single-high, Kupp has had a 30.2% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 2.24 YPRR, and a 34.6% first-read share. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the second-most receiving yards to slot receivers.

Demarcus Robinson: In Weeks 12-17, as a full-time player (75.9% route run rate), Robinson had a 17% target share, a 33.4% air-yard share, 1.95 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share. He also led the team with eight end-zone targets. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against single-high, Robinson had a 22% TPRR (third on the team behind Kupp and Nacua) and 1.72 YPRR. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Robinson is in play as a one-off this week, with Stafford stacks, or in a game stack.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown has been everything you could have possibly hoped for this season. He had at least 100 receiving yards in 56% of his games this season. He finished the season ranked fifth in targets, third in red zone targets, second in receptions, and third in receiving yards. Since Week 13, Los Angeles has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 11-17, against those coverages, St. Brown has had a 29.1% target share, 2.94 YPRR, and a 36.8% first-read share. St. Brown is set for another monster game.

Jameson Williams: Williams is in play for MME, large field GPPs, or if you are stacking Goff or just this game. Since Week 13, Los Angeles has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 11-17, against those coverages, Williams only had a 9.4% target share, but he accounted for a 26.8% air-yard share and 2.09 YPRR. Williams will go overlooked on this slate, but please include him in your player pool. He’s an easy way to bring down the total roster percentage of your lineup because he will not be a popular play.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee is only in play with Stafford stacks or a game stack of this game. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. Higbee has had a 15% TPRR and 1.27 YPRR against single-high. Detroit has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points, the seventh-most receiving yards, and the fifth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• PHI -3, O/U 43.5
• Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts sustained a gnarly finger injury in Week 18, but he would likely have to have his hand amputated for him to miss this game. Hurts is a warrior, and I expect him to suit up this week. Hurts passing numbers haven’t been pretty since Week 11. Since that week, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, and 25th in CPOE. Hurts will not be popular on the six-game slate, which is why he’s a perfect GPP target. His rushing upside can still help take down a tournament this week, and the injuries to his receiver room could make stacking him easy. Hurts ranks first in red zone carries, third in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Since Week 11, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and the eighth-most passing yards per game and ranked 15th in adjusted completion rate.

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is in play for large field tournaments and MME. Since Week 10, he has been solid, ranking fifth in passing touchdowns, 11th in passer rating, and 14th in CPOE. Mayfield has logged seven games this season with at least 19 fantasy points, which is plenty to take down a tournament. He should have no problems this week against a porous Eagles secondary that, since Week 13, has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate.

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White should remain a volume hoarder this week. That’s been the staple to his game all year as he finished the regular season ranking fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, second in carries, and ninth in targets. White averaged 19.8 touches and 90.5 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics have been in the toilet all season, and it hasn’t stopped him from scoring fantasy points, so why worry about them now? White should trample the Eagles’ run defense. Since Week 13, Philly has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the ninth-highest rushing touchdown rate.

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith: DeVonta Smith: Smith should be the leader of the passing attack this week. A.J. Brown hasn’t practiced this week, and even if he suits up, he could be limited. Smith ranks 21st in deep targets, 16th in receptions, and 20th in receiving yards among wide receivers this season. Since Week 13, Tampa Bay has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 50.3% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 1-17, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Smith had a 20% TPRR and 1.81 YPRR. Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers this season. Smith will be lowly rostered on the full six-game slate, so if you’re looking for a contrarian play to add to a chalkier build, he fits the bill.

Mike Evans: The last time Evans faced this pass defense, he secured five of his ten targets for 60 yards and a score (17 PPR points). He could easily surpass that mark this week. Evans had another banner season, ranking ninth in receiving yards, first in deep targets, 14th in red zone targets, and second in total touchdowns. Since Week 13, Philly has had the seventh-highest rate of single-high (57.3%). Against single-high, Evans has had a 26.6% target share, a 42.9% air-yard share, 3.30 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 13, Philly has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Chris Godwin: Godwin is in play for Mayfield stacks or if you’re game-stacking this matchup. Godwin had a disappointing season, but he still managed to rank 22nd in red zone targets, 17th in yards after the catch, and 23rd in receiving yards. Since Week 13, Philly has had the seventh-highest rate of single-high (57.3%). Against single-high, Godwin has had a 21.2% target share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. The Bucs have been trying to force the ball to Godwin, as he has at least 11 targets in three of his last five games. Since Week 13, Philly has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: In Weeks 14-17, Goedert had a 22.3% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share. The team has been trying to get him more involved in the red zone, as he has three red zone looks in his last four full games. Tampa Bay has been giving to tight ends all season, allowing the second-most fantasy points and receiving yards to tight ends.

Cade Otton: If you’re double-stacking Mayfield, Otton is in play. Otton has had an 11.8% target share, 0.89 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. Otton finished the season 18th in deep targets and 11th in red zone looks among tight ends. He could spike a touchdown and make the optimal this week against a Philly defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points and the 13th-most receiving yards to tight ends.

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