The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -3, O/U 35
• Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Andy Reid has stated that the starters will be put on ice this weekend. Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the starting lineup will get the week off. The Chiefs’ backups will all get significant playing time this week per Reid’s statements. That brings into focus Justyn Ross, Kadarius Toney, and La’Mical Perine. Toney I don’t have a ton of interest in as he remains dinged up (limited in practice with ankle and hip issues), but he’s MME viable.

Quarterbacks

N/A

Running Backs

La’Mical Perine: The Chiefs are carrying only three backs on the roster, with Jerick McKinnon on the IR. I doubt they will run Clyde Edwards-Helaire out there this week, as he’s Pacheco’s primary backup. Perine has only one regular season carry, and he wasn’t impressive in the preseason, with only 2.4 yards after contact per attempt and a 63.2 elusive rating. He is still a possible bellcow in a great matchup. We love volume in fantasy, and Perine will get a ton of it this week. The Bolts have not defended the run well over the back half of the season. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the 11th-lowest stuff rate.

Wide Receivers

Justyn Ross: Ross had only seven targets (four receptions, 36 receiving yards) in the regular season, so there’s not much to take away from that. He had a larger 15-target sample in the preseason, but the results weren’t eye-popping. Ross only had 1.0 YPRR, but he did manage a 25.4% TPRR, which is very encouraging. If you’re rostering Ross this week, it’s to save salary and stack your lineup with studs. His range of outcomes is wide, but the matchup is noice. Since Week 12, the Chargers have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

N/A

PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -4, O/U 41
• Rams vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: This game could be a playing time and snapshare mess for everyone involved. Kyle Shanahan has stated he will get some players rest, but other starters will see some action. The Rams are locked into the sixth or seventh seed, so there is zero motivation for Sean McVay to run his starters out there. Yes, could I write up Elijah Mitchell in this spot? Sure, but Mitchell has been banged up all season. As Christian McCaffrey‘s primary backup, I doubt Shanahan will feed him in a meaningless game. The Rams have also fielded a run defense to avoid all season.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold: Darnold draws the start this week for the 49ers. His most extensive experience in a 49ers uniform has come in the preseason. This preseason he completed 66.7% of his throws with 8.5 yards per attempt, an 8.1% big-time throw rate, and a 9.9 aDOT. Those numbers will play. Darnold is definitely in play for GPPs this week. The Rams’ starting secondary has faltered over the last few weeks, so how do we think the backups will fare this week. Probably not well. Since Week 12, Los Angeles has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the most fantasy points via passing.

Running backs

N/A

Wide Receivers

Tutu Atwell: Atwell should run as the WR1 this week. Puka Nacua likely plays the first drive or two to get the single-season receiving yardage and reception records sown up, but after that, it should be all Atwell. Since Week 12, the 49ers have had the 10th-highest rate of two high (54.5%). Against two high, Atwell has a 14% TPRR and 1.44 YPRR. These aren’t blistering numbers, but volume should be on his side this week. Also facing a possible starting tandem at corner of Samuel Womack lll (career: 75% catch rate and 101.9 passer rating) and Darrell Luter Jr. (former fifth-round selection with only three targets faced this season) doesn’t hurt.

Ronnie Bell: Bell should be the guy for Darnold this week if the 49ers sit or limit their starters. Bell has seen limited action this season, but some of the limited numbers are encouraging. Since Week 12, the Rams have the seventh-highest rate of single-high (58.5%). Against single-high, Bell has only 23 routes run, but he has managed a 22% TPRR, and for all five of his targets against single-high, he has been the first read. Since Week 12, the Rams have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Charlie Woerner: Woerner could be the every-down tight end for the 49ers this week in a strong matchup. Woerner’s career 7% TPRR and 0.47 YPRR don’t scream “PLAY ME,” but the matchup is glorious. The Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, the third-highest yards per reception, and the second-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

• DAL -13, O/U 46.5
• Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Dallas can win the NFC East with a win this week and secure the two seed. They will be hitting on all cylinders. The Commanders will continue to fight even though they are out of the playoff picture.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Prescott is the QB4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in passing yards and first in passing touchdowns. Since Week 8, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE, third in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. He should have no issues shredding Washington. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per attempt, and the second-highest passer rating.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Pollard has been a terrible disappointment this season, but he’s in play in Week 18. The matchup is amazing. Since Week 8, he has averaged 17.1 touches and 69.9 total yards. The last time he faced Washington, he had 19 touches and 103 total yards (one score). Since Week 8, among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard’s tackle-breaking numbers have improved as the season has worn on. Since Week 12, Washington has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-most rushing scores, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR2 in fantasy and has been balling. He ranks first in receptions, second in receiving yards and total touchdowns, and sixth in yards after the catch. Since Week 12, Washington has had the fourth-highest rate of two high (63.1%). Since Week 8, against two high, Lamb has had a 29.8% target share, a 39.7% air-yard share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 37.4% first-read share. Washington does not have a corner on their roster that can contain Lamb.

Tight Ends

N/A

PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA

Week 18 Motivation: Buffalo can win the AFC East and the two-seed with a win against Miami. If Miami loses, they will fall from the second seed to the sixth seed. Expect both teams to push it all in. The score of this game will be lower than the total suggests. The Bills’ offense has been a mess, and Miami has been playing defense at an elite level outside of the Baltimore game. If you’re playing the all-day slate, I would have exposure to De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill, but outside of those two players, I’m staying away from this game. I’ll bet props for this game, but I won’t be playing the showdown slate.

Quarterbacks

N/A

Running Backs

De’Von Achane: Last week, Achane was the backfield leader with Raheem Mostert out. Mostert opened this week with a DNP (ankle/knee). He might miss this week’s game as well. He did manage a limited session on Friday and has been listed as questionable. Last week, Achane played 48% of the snaps with 18 touches and 137 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, the Bills’ run defense has returned to the struggle bus, allowing the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing touchdowns, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. Achane should eat.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill is the WR1 in fantasy, ranking second in receptions, first in receiving yards, first in yards after the catch, and second in total touchdowns. Since Week 12, the Bills have deployed the eighth-highest rate of two high (55.2%). Against two high, Hill has had a 29.8% target share, a 42.6% air-yard share, 3.48 YPRR, and a 36.7% first-read share. Those numbers are the otherworldly stats that he has posted against single high, but they are still amazing. Corner matchups don’t matter for Hill. The weekly question is, “Do I pay up for him in DFS or not?” It’s that simple.

Tight Ends

N/A

PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*