The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

GB -3, O/U 45
Bears vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Packers need a win to get into the playoffs. They will be full bore this week. The Bears are not in the playoff picture, but you better believe they will try to win this game and knock out their division rival.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Fields is the QB7 in fantasy points per game this season. He has six games this season with at least 20 fantasy points, and he’s surpassed 24 fantasy points five times. Since Week 4, among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 17th in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Fields is sixth in red zone carries per game, second in rushing yards, and seventh in rushing touchdowns. He should decimate a Packers’ secondary that has been abysmal lately. Since Week 12, they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, and the second-highest passer rating.

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert: Herbert has reclaimed his lead role in this backfield, playing at least 50% of the snaps in each of the last two games while averaging 20.5 touches and 125 total yards. Herbert ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Herbert could easily stack another 100-yard rushing day in Week 18. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game and the 10th-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Moore is the WR9 in fantasy points per game this season, with six games with at least 22 fantasy points. He ranks seventh in deep targets, 13th in receptions, seventh in receiving yards, and ninth in yards after the catch. Moore has a 25.8% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 37.6% first-read share. The Packers have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: Since Week 13, Kraft has had a 16.5% target share, 1.85 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share. Kraft has seven red zone targets over his last six games. We’ll see if the Packers activate Luke Musgrave this week, but even if they do, he’ll likely only be a limited snap player. Kraft should remain the every-down starter. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receptions and receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

LV -3, O/U 37
Broncos vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams are playing for pride in Week 18. This game is a full fade outside of remaining on the Zamir White train for a final week.

Zamir White: The Raiders will continue to ride their 2024 feature back in White for a final time this season. Over the last three games, White has played 57-76% of the snaps, averaging 22.4 touches and 112 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, White ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Denver run defense that has improved, but since Week 12, has still ranked 18th in stuff rate while allowing the second-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.9) and the second-highest success rate to zone runs (White 45.6% zone).

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

PHI -5.5, O/U 42
Eagles vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Eagles need to win and a Dallas loss to jump to the number two seed. Dallas plays in the afternoon as well, so expect the Eagles to go all out this week. The Giants have been dead for weeks, but they will continue to trot out their starters and put up a fight.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts remains the QB2 in fantasy, but it has been driven by his production with his legs and not his arm. He ranks first in red zone carries, third in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. Since Week 11, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 16th in highly accurate throw rate. Hurts can have a day with his legs again while flashing some upside with his arm. The last time he faced the Giants, he had 7.9 yards per attempt while tossing for 301 yards and a score. The Giants will pose a challenge for him, though. Since Week 12, they have ranked 16th in passing yards per game while holding passers to the seventh-lowest CPOE, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the third-fewest passing touchdowns.

Tyrod Taylor: Taylor is a viable GPP play again this week after posting 19.8 fantasy points last week. His rushing upside might not be earth-shattering, but he has surpassed 20 rushing yards in five games this season. His passing skills have been underrated this season. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Taylor should have his way with a Philly pass defense that can’t seem to get right. Since Week 12, they have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the 10th-highest yards per attempt.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Swift is again a viable GPP play this week, but only in MME or large field. His production has been spotty lately. His 20 carries and 92 rushing-yard outing against the Giants last time was his best in a while. Swift has only one rushing touchdown over his last six games. In that same span, he hasn’t had more than seven receiving yards in any game. Since Week 12, he has averaged 14.7 touches and 62.6 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. It has not been pretty for Swift lately after a hot start to the season. Hopefully, he can bounce back this week. Since Week 12, the Giants have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley continues to truck along. He needs 84 more yards on the ground to log another 1,000-yard rushing season. He ranks third in snap share, second in opportunity share, and 10th in weighted opportunities. Barkley has averaged 20.6 touches and 88.1 total yards this season. He is 15th in explosive run rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. He should run wild this week against an Eagles run defense that, since Week 12, has given up the fourth-most rushing yards, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the ninth-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is due to bust out of this slump. Right? Since Week 11, he has only two games with more than 90 receiving yards. He hasn’t posted more than 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 8. Hurts should lean on him this week with DeVonta Smith clearly banged up. Brown ranks sixth in deep targets, and 12th in red zone looks. Since Week 12, New York has had the third-highest rate of single high (62.8%). Against single high, Brown has been dominant with a 37% target share, a 52.2% air-yard share, 3.82 YPRR, and a 46.6% first-read share. Since Week 12, the Giants have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller is only viable if you’re game-stacking this game or Tyrod Taylor. Over the last two games, Waller has had a 69.4% route run rate, a 15.1% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. Philly has been kind to opposing tight ends, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points and receiving yards this season.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

SEA -3, O/U 47.5
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Seattle has to win to get in. They also need the Packers to lose. Green Bay plays at the same time, so Seattle will go all out for the win this week. Arizona is out of it, but they will continue to run their starters out there and can play the spoiler role.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith has looked more like Chef Geno since Week 10. Since that week, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in passing yards per game, 11th in yards per attempt, and ninth in passer rating and hero throw rate. He should have no problems putting a hurting on the Cards’ secondary. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the highest passer rating and CPOE.

Kyler Murray: Murray has finished with at least 20 fantasy points in four of his seven starts. He ranks seventh in rushing yards and red zone carries per game, which has helped his fantasy output immensely. Murray has struggled since his return as a passer. Among 48 qualifying signal callers, Murray ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, 42nd in CPOE, and 32nd in highly accurate throw rate. Seattle has displayed more pliability as a pass defense in recent weeks. Since Week 12, they have allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards per attempt, and the ninth-highest passer rating.

Running Backs

Carroll says Kenneth Walker III is better today with his shoulder than he was a week ago on Wednesday. Says a good sign.

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) January 3, 2024

Ken Walker III was in walkthrough today and looked good, Pete says. That’s a good sign he’ll play versus Arizona

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) January 3, 2024

Kenneth Walker: Walker is an interesting GPP play this week. He is definitely not 100%, but the matchup is amazing, and he might not need a ton of volume to smash as a rusher. Since Week 14, he has averaged 16.1 touches and 74.3 total yards, playing 43-58% of the snaps weekly. Since Week 14, among 42 qualifying backs, Walker has ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Despite being less than fully healthy, it hasn’t impacted his ability to break tackles. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game and explosive run rate and the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.

James Conner: Conner has been crushing it. He needs only 110 rushing yards to hit 1,000 rushing yards for the season, which is amazing considering how much time he missed this season. Since Week 13, he has averaged 21.6 touches and 109.8 total yards. Conner looks like he hasn’t lost anything from his prime, and you can easily argue that he is still firmly in the prime of his career. He has been electric this season, ranking 12th in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Seattle’s run defense continues to stink it up. Since Week 12, they have allowed the most rushing yards per game and rushing touchdowns while also giving up the fifth-highest explosive run rate and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett: Lockett has disappointed this season, but he can turn all of those frowns from fantasy GMs upside down this week. Despite his shortcomings, he still ranks 17th in receptions and 27th in deep targets. He has been the team’s go-to (not D.K. Metcalf) against two high. Since Week 12, Arizona has had the second-highest rate of two high (70%). Since Week 8, against two high, Lockett has a 21.2% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 25.2% first-read share. Arizona has allowed the eighth-most receiving touchdowns, the highest catch rate, and the 14th-highest yards per reception to receivers this season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has taken more of the receiving workload over the back half of the season with at least 12.1 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He has four red zone targets across his last six games. Since Week 12, Arizona has had the second-highest rate of two high (70%). Since Week 8, against two high, Smith-Njigba has had a 19.9% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share (second on the team behind only Lockett). If you’re doubling Chef Geno this week, Walker and Smith-Njigba are the targets.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: With Kyler Murray under center, McBride has remained a weekly volume monster. Since Week 10, among 46 qualifying tight ends, he ranks first in target share (25.2%), second in YPRR (2.26), and first in first-read share (30.1%). These are elite WR1 volume/usage stats. In the same timeframe, McBride ranks fourth in fantasy points per route run.

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Justin Fields Khalil Herbert D.J. Moore Tucker Kraft Luke Musgrave Zamir White Jalen Hurts Tyrod Taylor D’Andre Swift Saquon Barkley A.J. Brown DeVonta Smith Darren Waller Geno Smith Kyler Murray Kenneth Walker James Conner Tyler Lockett D.K. Metcalf Jaxon Smith-Njigba Trey McBride