The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

JAX -3.5, O/U 41
Jaguars vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Jacksonville needs a win to lock up the AFC South. While they will go all out, this offense has been a rollercoaster this season and with Trevor Lawrence being less than 100% this isn’t an offense I want to invest in or a game environment that feels conducive to a scoring bonanza.

Quarterbacks

N/A

Running Backs

N/A

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins likely doesn’t make it on my single entry or three-max builds, but he’s in play for GPPs this week. He’s first in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has had the ninth-highest rate of two high (54.7%). Against two-high, Hopkins has a 24.3% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, 2.34 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Christian Kirk: Kirk could be activated for this week’s game. If he is, he’s a huge value this week and should lead the Jags passing attack. Kirk has six red zone targets in his last eight games played. Since Week 12, Tennessee has had the sixth-highest rate of two high (57.1%). In Weeks 1-12, Kirk had a 25% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 32.2% first-read share against two high. If he gets activated, I expect him to be a popular play, but this is good chalk that you pull out the biggest spoon from the drawer to eat.

Tight Ends

N/A

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

NE -2, O/U 30.5
Jets vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and have nothing to play for this week. Each team likely goes all out for the win, but this a low total game that could easily finish with a combined 12-15 points scored. There’s no reason to go to this game this week in search of DFS plays. I’m fully fading this game.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

NO -3, O/U 42
Falcons vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Each team will go all out this week. The winner of this game gets in the playoffs with a Bucs loss. The Saints can also get in with a win and losses by Green Bay and Seattle.

Quarterbacks

N/A

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: Arthur Smith has decided to put the silly games aside for the last two weeks. Since Week 16, Robinson has played at least 75% of the snaps while averaging 18.5 touches and 104 total yards. Robinson has still had to contend with Tyler Allgeier in the red zone, but he has the edge over him in the last two weeks with six opportunities versus Allgeier’s four. Among 65 qualifying backs, Robinson ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. Robinson should be the engine of the offense this week with 18-20 touches. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

N/A

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts has been up and down this season, but he’s in play this week against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable to tight ends. Since Week 12, New Orleans has the eighth-highest rate of single high (58.1%). Pitts has led the team with an 18.7% target share against single high while also kicking in a team-leading 30.7% air-yard share with 1.79 YPRR and a 22.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Juwan Johnson: Since Week 15, Johnson has been eating with a 20.4% target share, a 26.8% air-yard share, 2.89 YPRR, and a 21.0% first-read share. In this span, he has scored 11.8, 14.8, and 23.0 PPR points, with a touchdown in each game. Atlanta has been eaten alive by tight ends this season, giving up the seventh-most fantasy points, the fifth-most receiving yards, and the 12th-highest yards per reception. Johnson didn’t practice on Wednesday (chest), but he managed limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

TB -4.5, O/U 36.5
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Bucs need a win to make the playoffs. They will keep the pedal to the metal. Carolina is a team that has been dead in the water for the last few weeks. I won’t roster a single Panther this week in DFS.

Quarterbacks

N/A

Running Backs

Rachaad White: The last time these two teams met, White had 23 touches, 106 total yards, and 19.6 PPR points. With another 85 rushing yards, White can cross the 1,000 rushing mark for the season. He’s had at least 20 carries in four of the last five games and should be in line for 20-25 carries this week. White has averaged 19.6 touches and 90.4 total yards this season. He is fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunities, and seventh in red zone touches. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the fourth-highest rushing touchdown rate, the second-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. White is a smash play this week.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: I faded Evans in the offseason. I was wrong. Flat out wrong. He is the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. He has the most total touchdowns among receivers while also ranking tenth in receiving yards. Since Week 12, Carolina has had the highest rate of single-high (64.5%). Against single-high, Evans has had a 26% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 3.16 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share while leading the team with seven end-zone targets. Carolina has been average at defending perimeter wide receivers, ranking 18th in PPR points per target. Evans dunked on this secondary in Week 13 with seven receptions and 162 receiving yards (one score). He could easily do it again this week.

Tight Ends

N/A

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Trevor Lawrence DeAndre Hopkins Christian Kirk Bijan Robinson Tyler Allgeier Kyle Pitts Juwan Johnson Rachaad White Mike Evans