Welcome to the Week 18 Primer. Yes, most season-long leagues are finished with champions crowned last week, but there are some leagues with multi-week championship games. This week, I’ll roll through every game with a specific focus on DFS. This will be a condensed version of the Primer focusing on the players that I’ll be rostering in DFS this week. Be sure to check out our Week 18 Fantasy Football Expert Consensus Rankings for additional help setting your season-long lineups.
The easy rule here is that if I don’t write up a player, then yes, I don’t like their outlook for this week. If you have questions about a specific player not included in this week’s Primer for your season-long matchup, hit me up in our FantasyPros Discord. You can DM me, and we can chop it up.
Week 18 can get wild, with some teams resting their starters, some playing their starters only half the game, and others going all in to make the playoffs or simply knock off their foes. Prepare for chaos and Primer updates. I’ll continue to update the Primer as usual throughout the week as we have more news and insight into every team’s Week 18 plans.
The Primer will continue into the playoffs with a DFS focus, so while the regular season might be over. The Primer isn’t going anywhere.
PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA
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Fantasy Football Primer
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 18 Motivation:
- Pittsburgh: The Steelers have to win to have any shot at the playoffs. They will go all out.
- Baltimore: Baltimore has nothing to play for after locking up the top seed in the AFC. I expect the Ravens to rest all of their starters this week.
Quarterbacks
Tyler Huntley: Huntley will start this week. Last season, in his six starts (including the playoffs), he averaged 8.6 rushing attempts and 31.8 rushing yards, so we know the rushing equity will be there for Huntley. Huntley was not amazing during his tenure as a starter last year, but this is a two-game DFS slate (if you’re playing the Saturday-only slate). Huntley likely falls in line as the third-most-popular quarterback for the slate, which makes him a strong GPP play. Last year, among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, Huntley was 45th in yards per attempt, 35th in CPOE, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. The Steelers’ pass defense has been beatable this season. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest passer rating. In that timeframe, they have also ranked sixth-best in time to pressure, so Huntley will be flushed from the pocket regularly this week, which should contribute to some rushing attempts.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: Harris has taken back over the lead role for Pittsburgh. Since Week 9, he has averaged 17.3 touches and 73.9 total yards while dwarfling Jaylen Warren with 32 red zone opportunities (Warren 18). Harris ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should flirt with 15-20 touches this week in a great matchup. Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.14). 55.5% of Harris’s runs have come via zone plays.
Jaylen Warren: Since Week 9, Warren has averaged 13.9 touches and 82.8 total yards. He’s easily been the team’s best back all season, but Pittsburgh won’t let him take over the backfield. Since Week 9, he has lost the red zone battle to Harris with only 18 opportunities inside the 20-yard line (Harris 32). Warren remains one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, ranking third in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. He could run wild this week for Pittsburgh, especially if Baltimore can jump out to an early lead. Warren would then supplant Harris as the snap leader. Since Week 9, when Pittsburgh has trailed, Warren leads Harris with a 52.2% snap rate (Harris 51.4%) and with a 55.9% snap rate on passing downs (Harris 44.8%). Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.14). 52.1% of Warren’s runs have come via zone plays.
Melvin Gordon: Yes, that Melvin Gordon. If Baltimore rests all their starters, then Gordon could get the workhorse treatment this week for Baltimore. Baltimore only has three backs on their roster, and it’s tough to see them even having Justice Hill play meaningful snaps this week. Gordon has only 19 carries this season, but he’s looked pretty good when he’s been called upon, with a 32% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.63 yards after contact per attempt. It’s likely a small sample variance, though, as he looked like a back on his last legs last season with only 14% missed tackles forced per attempt and 2.37 yards after contact per attempt. Still, on a two-game slate, he will under rostered and will likely see 15-20 touches. He’s in play. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has fielded a tough run defense, but they have had some holes. Since Week 12, they have held teams to the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, but they have also allowed the third-highest missed tackles per attempt while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: Many will be looking for George Pickens here, but Johnson has been the Steelers’ guy against two-high. Since Week 12, Baltimore has utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56.4%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Johnson has had a 22.3% target share (Pickens 17.2%), a 40.8% air-yard share (Pickens 28.3%), 1.51 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share (Pickens 20.4%). The Ravens’ secondary has been stout, but if they are rolling out backups this week also on the defensive side, the teeth of that defense won’t be quite as sharp.
Nelson Agholor: Agholor has been the team’s WR4/slot option all season. He could operate as the team’s WR1 and starting slot this week. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has had the fourth-highest rate of single high (62.4%). This season, Agholor has had a 15% target per route run rate (TPRR) and only 1.47 YPRR against single-high. Last season, his numbers against single-high were stronger, with a 21% TPRR and 1.64 YPRR. Agholor has run 74.2% of his routes from the slot this season. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Outside of Week 12, Freiermuth has been a ghost for most of the 2023 season. In his 11 games played, he has only three weeks in which he surpassed 40 receiving yards, but he’s worth considering for this two-game DFS slate. Since Week 12, Baltimore has utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56.4%). Against two high, Freiermuth has a 16.9% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. Since Week 8, Baltimore has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the fourth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Charlie Kolar: If Isaiah Likely sits this week (he will), Kolar will be Baltimore’s every down tight end. Kolar hasn’t been utilized much this season, but when he’s been called upon, he has been efficient. He has a 15% TPRR, 1.88 YPRR, and 0.48 fantasy points per route run. Kolar has the athleticism to rip off big plays with his 4.67 40-yard dash and 88th-percentile speed score. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to tight ends.
PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams face win and in situations. Each team will play their starters all game.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: Stroud is hands down the best quarterback play of the two-game Saturday DFS slate. Easily. He ranks fifth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Indy has fielded an average pass defense over the last few weeks, ranking 14th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate and 15th in passer rating allowed. The Colts love their Cover 3 usage. Since Week 12, they have led the NFL in Cover 3 rate (48.4%). Stroud ranks second in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback among 29 qualifying quarterbacks against Cover 3.
Gardner Minshew: Minshew is a strong play this week. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, Minshew ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, and 32nd in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. None of these numbers will make anyone rush to plug Minshew into their DFS lineups, but the matchup is a pass-funnel paradise. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the third-most yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing yards per game, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Stacking Minshew and the Colts’ passing attack is perfect leverage off a popular Jonathan Taylor.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: Since Week 10, Singletary has averaged 18.8 touches and 96.9 total yards. He ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Singletary should flirt with 20-25 touches this week. Indy has struggled with run defense. Since Week 12, they have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Singletary 48.4% gap). Singletary is stackable with Stroud.
Jonathan Taylor: Since returning to the lineup, Taylor has played 59-62% of the snaps with zero pass game involvement (one target per game). He has averaged 19.5 rushing attempts and 69.5 rushing yards per game. Among 65 qualifying backs, Taylor ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor is fadeable on this two-game slate. With these small slates, you have to make a stand with certain players, and I lean that fading Taylor is the way to go. Houston has been a brick wall against rushing. Since Week 12, they have allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate and the second-fewest rushing yards per game while boasting the highest stuff rate in the NFL. Taylor will be one of if not the most popular play on this two game slate. I’ll have him on a few teams, but I’ll definitely be below the field.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: Collins has been a stud this year with four games with at least 23 PPR points. He ranks 16th in receiving yards, 11th in yards after the catch, and 22nd in red zone targets. Since Week 12, Indy has led the NFL in Cover 3 rate (48.4%). Against Cover 3, in the 13 games he has been a full time player, Collins has had a 21.2% target share, a 26.3% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Nico Collins is a near lock play.
Robert Woods: Woods is in play for Stroud stacks. He is dealing with a hip issue, but he’s expected to play this week. Noah Brown is expected to be out, which would make Woods the starting boundary receiver opposite Collins. In Week 2 against this defense, Woods secured six of his nine targets with 74 scoreless receiving yards. Since Week 12, Indy has led the NFL in Cover 3 rate (48.4%). In his 14 games played against Cover 3, Woods has a 14.4% target share, 1.34 YPRR, and a 17% first-read share. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Woods has not practiced all week and has been listed as questionable. If he is out, Xavier Hutchinson is in play and will likely run on the outside opposite Collins.
Michael Pittman: Pittman has been a volume hog with at least 11 targets in 60% of the games he played this season. He is ninth in targets, sixth in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and eighth in yards after the catch. Pittman also ranks ninth in red zone targets. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.6% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pittman has a 28.8% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 1.99 YPRR, and a 38.4% first-read share. Pittman is also a near-lock play. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Alec Pierce: Pierce is in play for this small slate. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.6% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pierce has had a 12.2% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. Houston has struggled against perimeter wide receivers and defending the deep ball. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Pierce leads Indy with 18 deep targets. Houston has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing yards, and the third-highest CPOE to deep passes this season.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Schultz has had a strong year as a security blanket for C.J. Stroud, ranking fourth in red zone targets, 13th in receptions, 12th in receiving yards, and seventh in total touchdowns among tight ends. Since Week 12, Indy has led the NFL in Cover 3 rate (48.4%). In the 12 games this season in which Schultz has played at least 59% of the snaps against Cover 3, he has had a 15.5% target share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. Schultz puts two tight-end lineups in play for this short slate. Indy has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards and the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 18 Motivation: The Bengals are out of the playoff hunt and banged up. They are an easy team to fade on this slate. The Browns have stated that if they have nothing to play for in Week 18 they will rest their starters. Cleveland is locked into the five seed. I expect to see a lot of Browns’ backups this week.
Quarterbacks
Jeff Driskel: In 2019, Driskel got a three-start cup of coffee with Detroit. He averaged 228.3 passing yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 7.3 rushing attempts, and 50.3 rushing yards in those starts. In 2020, he had two games with extended action, averaging 216 passing yards with 6.7 yards per attempt, but the rushing equity wasn’t there (only 9.5 rushing yards per game). The rushing upside is there with Driskel, but it’s fair to question whether we see it this week from the now 30-year-old signal caller. The matchup is amazing for Driskel, and the salary relief he provides can allow you to stack a lineup full of studs. Since Week 12, the Bengals have been ravaged by passing, giving up the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest yards per attempt and CPOE.
Running Backs
Pierre Strong: If Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt sit, Strong will be an every-down workhorse in a smash matchup. Strong has long been the apple of my eye since his days as a prospect. He has done nothing to change that stance this season with limited work. Among 66 qualifying running backs, Strong ranks 29th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. He should shred the Bengals’ putrid run defense. Since Week 11, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-highest rushing touchdown rate, the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Strong 59.2% gap) with the eighth-lowest stuff rate.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin is only in play for large-field GPPs. He should operate as the Brown’s WR1 this week. His peripherals aren’t great, with a 19% TPRR and 0.96 YPRR, but Goodwin’s speed is still very present, and the matchup is wonderful. Since Week 12, the Bengals have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers (Goodwin 61.4% boundary this season). Goodwin was limited in practice on Thursday and didn’t practice on Friday (knee). He has been listed as questionable.
Andrei Iosivas: We’ll see if Tee Higgins (listed as doubtful). Higgins is banged up. Iosivas could return to the starting lineup this week. The one-game sample we have with him in the starting lineup was quite nice. In Week 16, he commanded a 19% target share, a 34% air-yard share, and a 21.4% first-read share. Yes, he only produced 1.16 YPRR, but it’s a one-game sample, and we are looking for volume from punt wide receivers. Iosivas has displayed the ability to draw targets. He’ll face the backup tandem of Khalef Hailassie (UDFA rookie with only six targets this season in coverage) and Cameron Mitchell (68.2% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating) if Cleveland sits their starters.
Tight Ends
Jordan Akins: This could easily be the Harrison Bryant show, but as the TE2 for the team, he could be too high on the depth chart and sit out this week with the rest of the starters. Akins could draw the start in a marvelous spot. Akins has had 18% TPRR marks in back-to-back seasons with strong YPRR numbers (1.50, 1.77). Cincinnati has been a dream matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the second-most receiving yards, the most receptions, and the third-most fantasy points to the position.
PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Week 18 Motivation: Minnesota remains mathematically alive for the playoffs, but they need a win this week to have a shot. They will go all out. Detroit can move up to the two-seed if Dallas and Philly both lose. The Eagles and Cowboys both play later in the day, so I expect the fighting Dan Campbells to go all out this week.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Goff had no problems posting an efficient outing last time against Minnesota, completing 75% of his throws for 257 yards and a score. Three touchdowns went to the ground game, which sapped all of Goff’s upside, but this is still a secondary matchup that he can take advantage of through the air. Goff has five games with at least 20 fantasy points and two above 25 points, so the ceiling is there. Goff ranks sixth in passing yards per game, 11th in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and 11th in CPOE. The Vikings’ secondary has been exposed. Since Week 12, they have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.
Nick Mullens: Mullens has posted 19.1 and 20.5 fantasy points in his two full starts while averaging 357 passing yards and 10.3 yards per attempt. Overall, among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, Mullens ranks second in yards per attempt and CPOE, 40th in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in fantasy points per dropback. He dropped 411 passing yards and three scores (one rushing) on Detroit in Week 16. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the most passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the 11th-highest passer rating.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: The last time these two teams met, Gibbs rolled up 19 touches and 100 total yards (two scores). He has been a matchup-proof monster this season. Since Week 12, he has averaged 14.3 touches and 76.7 total yards. Gibbs is one of the best young backs in the NFL, ranking second in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s arbitrary, but he’s only 85 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards for the season. Since Week 12, Minnesota’s run defense has also begun to show some cracks, allowing the 13th-highest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt with the second-lowest stuff rate. Since Week 12, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (since Week 9, 52.7% of Gibbs’ runs have been on zone plays). If Goff fails this week, it’s because Gibbs likely had another outstanding game.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: Since Week 15, Jefferson has looked like himself with a 29.4% target share, a 47.9% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 36.9% first-read share. Jefferson talked about reaching 1,000 receiving yards, and he can do that this week with 118 receiving yards. Jefferson is one of the best plays of the slate. Detroit has not been able to stop perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 12, they have allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to boundary wide receivers.
Jordan Addison: In his two full games since Jefferson’s return, Addison has had a 16.7% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 2.11 YPRR, and a 14.9% first-read share. Addison is only in play this week in large-field GPPs or in a full-game stack. This game could shoot out, and if that happens, Addison will likely finish Week 18 with another beautiful stat line. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to boundary wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown has cemented himself easily among the best young wide receivers in the NFL this season. He is sixth in targets, second in receptions, fifth in receiving yards, and third in yards after the catch. He is seventh in total touchdowns on the strength of ranking second in red zone targets. He secured 12 of his 14 targets for 106 receiving yards and a score last time against Minnesota. Since Week 12, Minnesota has had the fifth-highest rate of two high (62.4%). Against two high, St. Brown has a 27.3% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. Since Week 12, Minnesota has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Tight Ends
Johnny Mundt: Last week, Mundt had an 84.2% route run rate, 21.9% target share, 1.22 YPRR, and two red zone targets as the Vikings starting tight end. Mundt is viable in a game stack or a mini stack run back with St. Brown or Gibbs this week. Detroit has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points, the 11th-most receiving yards, and the seventh-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
PIT vs. BAL | HOU vs. IND | CLE vs. CIN | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | CHI vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | PHI vs. NYG | SEA vs. ARI | KC vs. LAC | LAR vs. SF | DAL vs. WAS | BUF vs. MIA
