We are moving on in the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, we welcome the Divisional Round. With a bevy of big games this week and the stakes being even higher, it will be another fun week of DFS.

Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Welcome to the Divisional Round Primer. Enjoy.

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The Primer: Divisional Round

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -9.5, O/U 43.5
• Texans vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Yes, he is a rookie, but this fact remains true. Since Week 11, He has ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Baltimore poses a tough task this week. Since Week 14, they have allowed the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE, but the Ravens’ secondary has also shown some give. In the same span, they have yielded the seventh-most passing yards per game and the 12th-most passing touchdowns. While Baltimore has ranked fourth-best in time to pressure in their last five games, they also sit at 27th in pressure rate, so Stroud should have time to pick the secondary apart. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Since Week 11 among 23 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks first in yards per attempt and CPOE and third in fantasy points per dropback against two-high.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been on another level this season. Since Week 11, he has been fifth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating and CPOE. Since Week 11, he has been second behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per dropback. Houston has been a torchable pass defense for most of the season. Since Week 14, they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt and passing yards per game and the third-highest CPOE. Expect Jackson to test this pass defense deep. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the second-most deep passing yards and the ninth-highest CPOE to targets 20 yards or further downfield.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: Singletary remains the Texans’ clear workhorse. In four of his last five games, he has played at least 62% of the snaps while averaging 22.5 touches and 97.7 total yards in those four games. Among 49 qualifying backs, Singletary ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Singletary is one of the best plays of the slate. Since Week 13, Baltimore has been a run funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: Collins has been a monster this season. Stroud has leaned on him heavily in recent weeks. Since Week 16, he has had a 30% target share, a 45.2% air-yard share, 49% of the team’s receiving yardage, 5.3 yards per route run, and a 35.5% first-read share. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Across his last five games played without Tank Dell in the lineup, Collins has had a 33% TPRR and 6.45 YPRR against two-high. Collins will smash again this week. Since Week 14, Baltimore has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Zay Flowers: Flowers has flashed more of a ceiling over the last few games as he has eclipsed 19.6 PPR points in four of his last five games with four scores and five red zone targets. Since Week 14, Houston has utilized two-high at the third-highest rate (61.8%). In Weeks 1-17, Flowers ranked second in target share (19.1%), fourth in TPRR (18%), and second in first-read share (27.7%) against two high. His efficiency against two-high hasn’t been great in his last 16 games, with only 1.12 YPRR, but the volume should be there this week to help counteract that. Flowers could also contribute with some splash plays if Jackson goes deep. Flowers ranks 21st among wide receivers in deep targets. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr.’s playing time has fluctuated this season, but he has played at least 53% of the snaps in three of his last four games, and we could see his usage climb even higher this week. It’s win-or-go-home time, and the Ravens have kept Beckham Jr. in bubble wrap all year, but now is the time to unleash him. Since Week 14, Houston has utilized two-high at the third-highest rate (61.8%). In Weeks 1-17, Beckham ranked second on the team in TPRR (24%) and YPRR (1.70) against two high while leading the way in air-yard share (30.7%). If we zoom in further to Weeks 12-17, Beckham Jr.’s numbers get even better with a 37.7% air-yard share, a 25% TPRR, and 2.23 YPRR against two high. Beckham is my favorite point-per-dollar Ravens receiver this week. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Schultz has become the clear number two option in the passing attack for Stroud, and that should continue against Baltimore. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Since Week 13 against two high, Schultz has ranked second in TPRR (24%), third in YPRR (2.56), and second in first-read share (15.8%). Baltimore has struggled to defend tight ends. Since Week 10, they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, the sixth-highest yards per reception, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. If you are double-stacking Stroud, it’s easy. It’s Collins and Schultz.

Isaiah Likely: With Mark Andrews out this week, Likely continues his run as Baltimore’s starting tight end. Since assuming the role, he’s had a 14.7% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. Since Week 14, Houston has utilized two-high at the third-highest rate (61.8%). Since Week 12 against two high, Likely has had a 14% target share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 10.4% first read share. Likely is a solid stacking option this week with Jackson or in play if you’re stacking this game. Houston has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -9.5, O/U 50.5
• Packers vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has been balling since Week 9, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, second in passer rating and CPOE, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He faces a 49ers’ pass defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest passer rating while also allowing the 13th-most passing touchdowns and ranking 16th in CPOE. Green Bay will look to exploit San Francisco’s weakness in defending play-action passing. Since Week 9, Love has had the third-most play-action dropbacks. Across their last six games, San Francisco has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the fourth-highest CPOE to play-action passes. Love continues to cement this status as Green Bay’s new franchise quarterback this week.

Brock Purdy: Purdy has been a fantasy superstar this season as the QB6 with nine games with at least 20 fantasy points. Purdy ranked first in yards per attempt and passer rating, sixth in passing yards per game, and second behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy should carve up a pass defense that, since Week 14, has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, and the second-highest passer rating.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has been a joy to watch play the last few weeks. Seeing him finally healthy at the right time has been a godsend for Green Bay. Since Week 16 he has averaged 23 touches and 134.2 total yards. In that same timeframe, among 35 qualifying backs, he has ranked eighth in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. He takes on an overrated 49ers’ run defense. Since Week 13, San Francisco has quietly allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt with the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Across the same span they have allowed THE highest yards per carry (5.06!) and the fourth-highest success rate to zone runs (Jones 62% zone).

Christian McCaffrey: This sounds like a tall order for McCaffrey, but it isn’t. He has hit the over for this mark in four of his last five games and the only game in which he didn’t was against Washington when he left due to injury. McCaffrey remains arguably the best running back in the NFL. He averaged 21.2 touches and 126.5 total yards this season. He was fourth in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey should have no problems rolling up yardage against Green Bay. Since Week 13, the Packers have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (McCaffrey 64.7% zone).

Wide Receivers

Romeo Doubs: Last week, the Packers utilized a committee rotation with their wide receivers, but Doubs led the way with a 66.7% route run rate. He was the only Green Bay wide receiver to log over a 53% route run rate. This week, he should lead the pack again. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 54.1% of their defensive snaps. This season, Doubs has led the team with a 25% TPRR and six end-zone targets against those coverages while also logging 1.7 YPRR. If Green Bay also hopes to attack San Francisco with a healthy dose of play-action, Doubs will be involved. He leads the team in play-action targets.

Jayden Reed: Last week, Reed was only a part-time player. In the first quarter, he only had a 44.4% route run rate, as the only players with higher than 65% route run rates were Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. Reed is stackable with Love this week, but he likely won’t make my single entry or three max builds. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 54.1% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 3 & Cover 4, Reed ranks second on the team in TPRR (23%) and YPRR (2.07, minimum 50 routes). If Reed’s route share bounces back this week, it should be Doubs and him leading the way for Green Bay through the air.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel was fantastic when on the field this season as the WR12 in fantasy points per game while ranking 14th in red zone targets and scoring the fourth-most total touchdowns. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, Samuel has been the 49ers’ preferred option against two high with a 27.6% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. All of those marks lead the team, along with his 0.68 fantasy points per route run against two high. Samuel is a must if you are game-stacking this contest or playing Purdy. Since Week 14, Green Bay has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the sixth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk had a marvelous season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game while ranking 24th in receptions, seventh in receiving yards, and 18th in yards after the catch and total touchdowns among wide receivers. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Aiyuk has had a 17.3% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, 1.95 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. In that span, against that coverage type, he leads the team in air-yard share while ranking second in YPRR and first-read share. Aiyuk is staring down Kittle and McCaffrey as the second option for Purdy stacks. Since Week 14, Green Bay has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the sixth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle has shown no signs of slowing down this year as the TE6 in fantasy, ranking first in deep targets and 10th in red zone looks. He finished the season with five games with 19.6 or higher PPR points. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Kittle has ranked second on the team with an 18.4% target share, third in YPRR (1.92), and third in first-read share (19.3%). Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game, the ninth-most receiving yards per game, and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -6, O/U 49.5
• Buccaneers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has resurrected his career. He has continually improved this season with the Bucs. Since Week 14, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield is in a smash spot. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the seventh-most passing touchdowns.

Jared Goff: Goff has been a revelation this season. Among 57 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked sixth in passing yards per game, 10th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and 12th in CPOE. Tampa Bay is a pass-funnel defense, as they have clamped down on the run. Detroit should look to air it out this week against the Bucs. Since Week 11, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and passing yards per game and the 12th-highest CPOE. The quarterbacks in this game might not have sexy names, but they are fantastic plays.

Running Backs

With any short slate, you have to take stances with your builds because, unfortunately, you can’t play everyone. One of my stances for this slate is to fade both of these backfields. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, followed immediately by Tampa Bay.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans has had a wondrous season, and he could easily continue to build upon it this week. He was the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in deep targets, 14th in red zone targets, ninth in receiving yards, and second in total touchdowns. Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Evans has demolished single-high this season with a 26.6% target share, a 42.9% air-yard share, 3.0 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Evans is one of my favorite plays of this slate.

Chris Godwin: Godwin finished the regular season with a flurry, with at least 11 targets in three of his final five games. He saved his day last week late in the game with a touchdown, but he still only had five targets, four receptions, 45 receiving yards (and a score). Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Godwin has been the team’s preferred second option against single-high this season with a 21.2% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. Godwin is in play as a one-off play or as a stacking partner for Mayfield if you’re doubling him. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is in play weekly. As the WR4 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in red zone targets, second in receptions and yards after the catch, and third in receiving yards, he has been a superstar. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, St. Brown has had a superb 27.3% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 32.9% first-read share. He should have no issues cutting this secondary to pieces. Since Week 14, Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers.

Josh Reynolds: Last week, I was expecting Jameson Williams to answer the call and step up, but Reynolds intercepted that speed dial. In the wild-card round, Reynolds had a 90% route run rate, 25.9% target share, 42.3% air-yard share, and a 35.3% first-read share. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, Reynolds has had a 15% TPRR, 1.37 YPRR and ranked second on the team with four end-zone targets. Reynolds is a strong value play this week against a Bucs secondary that, since Week 14, has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton has had a 12.9% target share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 13% first-read share this season. He ranks 11th in red zone targets among tight ends. He’s coming off a strong performance in the Wild Card round. He’s in play again this week, but his star isn’t bright this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Against single-high, Otton has disappeared with a 9.3% target share, 0.81 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the third-highest yards per reception, and the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Otton is stackable with Mayfield or utilized in a game stack.

Sam LaPorta: The legend of Sammy Ballgame continues to grow. Last week, he made a miraculous recovery, logging a 73.3% route run rate, 11.1% target share, and a 5.9% first-read share. LaPorta should be even closer to full health this week in a fantastic matchup. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, in the regular season, Ballgame had a 22.7% target share, a 25.4% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points and the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -2.5, O/U 45.5
• Chiefs vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Playing Josh Allen this week is just expecting Josh Allen to do Josh Allen things. Allen has scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. With Joe Brady calling the shots, Allen has been rushing more, with at least 44 rushing yards in four of his last eight games. In Weeks 1-10, Allen had at least 44 rushing yards only twice. Since Week 11, Allen has ranked 10th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passing yards per game, and first in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 14, Kansas City has fielded a nasty pass defense, allowing the lowest yards per attempt, third-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been a workhorse without Jerick McKinnon. In four of those five games, he has played at least 70% of the snaps while averaging 21 touches and 98.2 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs in the regular season, Pacheco ranked 11th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco should have 20-25 touches this week against a soft Buffalo Bills’ run defense. Since Week 13, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

James Cook: Cook is the undisputed lead back for Buffalo. Since Week 11, he has averaged 19.8 touches and 91.8 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs in the regular season, he ranked 24th in explosive run rate and 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The last time he faced Kansas City, he finished with 15 touches while churning out 141 total yards. Since Week 13, Kansas City has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, ranked 17th in rushing yards per game, and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: Rice has been the primary guy for Patrick Mahomes since Week 12. Since Week 17, Buffalo has the eighth-highest rate of two high (58.8%). Since Week 12, against two high, Rice has had a 22.5% target share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 27.8% first-read share. The last time he faced this secondary, Rice secured seven of his 10 targets with 72 receiving yards and a score. Rice could improve upon those numbers this week.

Khalil Shakir: Last week, only Shakir and Stefon Diggs had route run rates of at least 73% (Shakir 73.5%). Shakir only saw a 10% target share, but he had 31 receiving yards and a score. Since Week 17, Kansas City has had the highest rate of two high in the NFL (84.1%). Since Week 12, Shakir has had an 11.1% target share and 1.53 YPRR against two high. Shakir is only in play this week if you’re game-stacking this contest or playing Allen. Since Week 14, Kansas City has allowed the 17th-most receiving yards to slot receivers.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce has taken a step back this season, but that doesn’t mean he is off the radar for DFS. Since Week 17, Buffalo has had the eighth-highest rate of two high (58.8%). Since Week 12, against two high, Kelce has had a 20.2% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share (team-leading. Since Week 6, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-most receptions and the ninth-highest catch rate to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid: Last week, Kincaid had a 61.8% route run rate, a 20% target share, a 45.9% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 26.1% first-read share. Kincaid has stepped up big time down the stretch for Buffalo, with Stefon Diggs falling off. He’ll be counted on heavily again this week. Since Week 17, Kansas City has had the highest rate of two high in the NFL (84.1%). Since Week 12, against two high, Kincaid has had an 18.2% target share (second on the team), 2.30 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share (second on the team). Stacking Allen with Cook and Kincaid is the way I’ll be approaching most of my Allen teams this week.

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