One more round of the NFL Playoffs, and we will be left with only the Super Bowl. It’s crazy. The NFL season has flown by. Can Jared Goff and the fighting Dan Campbells take down the Goliath that is the 49ers? Will Lamar Jackson continue to add to his MVP candidacy and slay the impervious Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs? I can’t wait. It will be a heart-pounding weekend of football.
Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.
Welcome to the Conference Championship Primer. Enjoy.
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The Primer: Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
- BAL -3.5, O/U 44.5
- Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been dealing all year, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback. The rushing equity has been ramped up in the playoffs, too, which gives him slate-breaking upside. In five career playoff games, he has surpassed 54 rushing yards four times while posting at least 100 rushing yards three times. Jackson will have to don the cape and be Superman this week against a tough Kansas City pass defense. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: In the playoffs, Pacheco has averaged 71% of the snaps played with 20.5 touches and 95.5 total yards per game. Since returning to the lineup, Pacheco has been fantastic, with a 5.9% explosive run rate while also chipping in 2.56 yards after contact per attempt. In the final six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line was steamrolling opponents, ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Look for Pacheco to be leaned on this week. The biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense has been against the run. Since Week 13, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Gus Edwards: Baltimore blowing the doors off Houston last week skewed the snap counts. Don’t get it twisted. This is still Edwards and Justice Hill‘s backfield, as Dalvin Cook only played one snap in the first half. Edwards played 46.2% of the rushing snaps and 38.7% overall, but that should rise this week as Baltimore should lean on their ground game. He also played every snap inside the five-yard line while splitting the red zone snaps with Hill. Among 69 qualifying running backs, Edwards ranks 33rd in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards should find running room against a run defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the lowest stuff rate, and the 12th-highest success rate to gap runs (Edwards 58.2% gap).
Justice Hill: Last week, Hill played 57% of the snaps with 15 touches and 77 total yards. In the first half of last week’s game, he played 64.5% of the snaps with a whopping 72.2% of the passing down snaps. He split the red zone snaps evenly with Edwards in the first two quarters. Hill ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in explosive run rate. Hill could have another busy week against the Chiefs and is in play for GPPs. Since Week 13, the Chiefs have allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the lowest stuff rate, and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Hill 54.8% zone).
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: Last week, Rice was dinged up and played only 64% of the snaps, but assuming he’s good to go, he should lead the way for Kansas City’s passing attack this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Rice has had a team-leading insane 38% TPRR and 3.81 YPRR with a 29% first-read share. Rice has overcome tough matchups and posted scintillating stat lines this season. I won’t be surprised if he does it again this week.
Zay Flowers: Last week, only Flowers and Rashod Bateman had at least a 73% route run rate as Baltimore split up the WR3 role between Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor. I won’t be surprised if Kansas City lets L’Jaruis Sneed shadow Flowers, but they didn’t have him shadow Stefon Diggs last week (followed on 48.6% of his routes), so I’m not projecting that Sneed shadows this week. Since Week 17, Kansas City has utilized two high with 81.6% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, Flowers has led the team with a 21.8% target share and 36% first-read share against two high although he has only produced 1.37 YPRR. He has also led the team with 0.47 fantasy points per route run against two high. When Jackson drops back this week, he’ll be looking for Flowers early and often.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Last week, Beckham Jr. only had a 36.7% route run rate overall, but in the first half, when the game was closer, his route run rate was at 50%. If last week’s game had been closer, Beckham Jr.’s usage would have theoretically been better from a route share perspective. Since Week 17, Kansas City has utilized two high with 81.6% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, Beckham Jr. has been the team’s second go-to against two high with a 24% TPRR, 2.14 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Beckham Jr. is in play for single entry and MME.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Last week, Kelce turned in a vintage performance with a 26.1% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 3.75 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Look for him to push Rice for the team lead in targets this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Kelce has had a 26% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Noah Gray: Gray is only in play in MME or if you’re game stacking this game. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Gray has had a 22% TPRR, 1.73 YPRR, and one end zone target. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Mark Andrews: On a two-game slate, I’m embracing variance and risk and investing in Andrews. If he’s a full-go, which I know is a big if, he’s one of the best plays of the slate. Since Week 17, Kansas City has utilized two high with 81.6% of their coverage snaps. In Weeks 2-10 with Andrews in his usual full-time role, he was the team’s go-to option against two-high with a 28.8% target share, a 34.8% air-yard share, 3.51 YPRR, and a 30.6% first-read share. The Chiefs have defended tight ends well since Week 10, allowing the 11th-lowest receiving yards and the fifth-lowest yards per reception. Andrews should be fed volume in this game despite the tough matchup.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
- SF -7, O/U 50.5
- Lions vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Goff proved this year he should be the franchise passer for Detroit for years to come. He ranks tenth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, 12th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff was fantastic last week, completing 69.8% of his passes with 287 passing yards and 20.1 fantasy points. Since Week 13, the 49ers have remained a tough pass defense, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 12th-lowest CPOE. They have shown some bend in that timeframe, though, as they have given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Their biggest weakness has been against play-action passing. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and third-highest passer rating to play-action passing. Goff ranks third in play-action dropbacks and first in play-action passing yards this season. He’s a fantastic contrarian play this week.
Brock Purdy: Purdy had a tough game last week, but it won’t stop me from going right back to him in DFS. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt and passer rating, eighth in CPOE, and third in fantasy points per dropback. He’ll most likely be chalky this week, but I don’t care. Detroit hasn’t proven they can stop anyone through the air. Since Week 13, they have allowed the most passing yards per game and the highest yards per attempt while also giving up the seventh-highest CPOE.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has been unstoppable. In the playoffs, he has averaged 12.5 touches and 91 total yards with scores in both games. Gibbs ranks second in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs should have another strong game against a 49ers’ run defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
David Montgomery: David Montgomery is one of my favorite plays of the week. In the playoffs, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played with 14 touches and 57.5 total yards. He has remained the Lions’ red zone and goal line back with a 90.9% snap rate inside the five and a 58.3% snap rate in the red zone. He ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit should lean on their backfield this week. Since Week 13, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is in play every slate. Last week, he played his usual every-down role (98% of the snaps) with 24 touches and 128 total yards (two touchdowns). McCaffrey ranks fourth in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a daunting task with Detroit’s run defense bearing down. Since Week 13, they have ranked 15th in explosive run rate with the fourth-highest stuff rate and the 11th-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey can still get it done via the touchdown department and through the air. Detroit has also allowed the second-highest yards per reception to running backs.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is as automatic as they come. He’s had at least 21 fantasy points in five of his last six games, with at least nine targets and 77 receiving yards in each contest. He has 13 red zone targets over his last six games. Since Week 15, the 49ers have utilized two high on 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against two high, St. Brown has had a 28.3% target share, a 36.2% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Goff will PEPPER him with targets this week. In Weeks 14-18, the 49ers allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to slot receivers.
Josh Reynolds: If Goff is looking to attack the 49ers with a heavy dose of play-action, Reynolds will be involved. In the playoffs, he has had an 83% route run rate, a 14.3% target share, 1.7 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. This season, with play-action dropbacks, Reynolds ranked second in first-read share (16.7%) and had a strong 1.92 YPRR.
Brandon Aiyuk: Last week Aiyuk had a quiet outing with a 15.4% target share and a 22.9% air-yard share but he led the team with a 23.5% first-read share. This week Aiyuk should come roaring back against the Lions. Since Week 17 Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Aiyuk has been San Francisco’s main squeeze against single-high with a 26% target share, a 42.2% air-yard share, 3.61 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. In Weeks 14-18, Detroit allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and PPR points per target to opposing perimeter wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: When Goff drops back, he’ll be looking for St. Brown first, and if he’s not open, then it’s Sammy Ballgame time. Since Week 15, the 49ers have utilized two high on 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against two high, LaPorta has ranked second on the team with a 15.2% target share and 18.3% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, the 49ers allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
George Kittle: Kittle should be second in line to attack Detroit’s single high coverage this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Against single-high, he has a 20.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. In the regular season, Detroit allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
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