In the mighty words of Led Zeppelin, the PGA Tour is “going to California with an aching in her heart.”
Defending champion Jon Rahm was not there in Maui, nor is he here in the Coachella Valley. The exodus of talented, winning players to the LIV Tour has left an indelible mark on professional golf as a whole. As old champions move on to greener pastures (and wallets), new ones emerge. Grayson Murray championed sobriety and held on to win the Sony Open as a 500-1 outlier. The American Express is another such event that will not simply embrace the well-known golfer at the bended knee. Scoring conditions will favor the golfer who simply gets hot at the right time.
The American Express features three easy courses. Each is shorter than 7,200 yards and runs a gettable par-72 on the card. A 54-hole cut throws another interesting wrinkle into the mix. The field is stronger than in years past despite the various defectors to the competition. Weighted modeling favors a correlation between strong form from tee to green and strong putting in recent weeks. Opportunities for birdies (or better) will be paramount, so recent form again takes the cake. Expect a winning score between 24 and 30 strokes under par.
The American Express 2024 DFS Picks & Predictions
(Salary prices courtesy of DraftKings)
There isn’t much cause for praying a golfer “finds his form” this week in DFS. Go with the players who are rolling pure entering the week. In an event with a lot of proven talent at the top of the pricing scale, it will be extremely difficult to build an optimal lineup with more than one player above a $10k salary. The value plays are many, putting the onus on the lineup architect to try a buckshot approach to rostering the right mix.
A lineup that somehow manages to get all six past the cut line is a winning lineup this week. The trick is to pick the right cut-makers who can bring home the bacon. Let’s dig in.
High-Priced ($9,000 & Above)
- Chalk Plays: Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, JT Poston
- Chalk Fades: Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk
- Leverage Plays: Scottie Scheffler, Min Woo Lee, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler
Mid-Priced ($7,600 to $8,900)
- Chalk Plays: Eric Cole, Akshay Bhatia, Stephan Jaeger, Andrew Putnam
- Chalk Fades: Cameron Davis, Taylor Montgomery, Alex Noren
- Leverage Plays: Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Aaron Rai, Adam Schenk
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Below)
- Chalk Plays: Ryu Hisatsune, Sam Ryder
- Chalk Fades: Erik Van Rooyen, Alex Smalley, Patton Kizzire
- Leverage Plays: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Austin Eckroat, Dylan Wu, Ben Kohles, Jake Knapp
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