Welcome to the Conference Championship of the NFL Playoffs, a jam-packed weekend of football for daily fantasy football enthusiasts, NFL sports bettors and those looking ahead to the 2024 best ball drafting season.
In this thrilling and final phase of the real NFL season. I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023-2024 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action with the official 2023 fantasy football season in the books. Again, we often don’t cite Weeks 18 and on when we summarize the 2023 fantasy football season. But it’s doing an injustice to not take more information that these teams/players provide us as we set our sights on having an edge over our opponents in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Our focus has shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and PrizePicks advice for those looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
Don’t miss out on signing up for PrizePicks! Use our BettingPros PrizePicks Cheat Sheet and my promo code: PR-REQ653D for instant promo funds up to $25.
Now, let’s dive into the Conference Championship Fantasy Football Forecast. The final four teams remain for football supremacy.
Fantasy Football Forecast NFL Conference Championship Round
Baltimore Ravens
It was a difficult first half for the Baltimore Ravens offense.
Gus Edwards was held to just 21 rushing yards on 6 carries. He would finish with four more carries for 40 yards after the second half of the contest against the fierce Texans run defense.
Justice Hill took charge of the backfield, rushing 13 times for 66 yards. Newly signed Dalvin Cook even got some action later with Edwards getting worked on the sideline in the 2nd half due to a hand injury. John Harbaugh said post-game that he [Edwards] was okay.
Hill played 57% of the snaps, to Edwards’ 34% and Cook’s 13% (9 snaps). Hill/Edwards each saw 2 targets.
Edwards still had carries from inside the 3 and 19-yard line, while Hill also had 2 red-zone carries.
Lamar Jackson was everything an MVP player should be in this game. 4 total TDs and 100 rushing yards.
One TD he threw to Isaiah Likely after the duo narrowly missed on a score earlier in the game. Likely caught 2 of his 3 targets for 34 yards.
Zay Flowers led with 5 targets (23% target share), catching 4 balls for 41 yards. Rashod Bateman was efficient catching all 3 passes thrown his way for 39 yards. He played the second most WR snaps (64%) and ran a route on 21 of 29 dropbacks.
Nelson Agholor scored the other TD, catching 2 of his 4 targets. He played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. (47% vs 29% snap shares). Beckham caught one pass for 12 yards while running just 8 routes.
Baltimore takes on KC in the AFC Championship at home.
For an early look at props on PrizePicks, I am leaning heavily toward the under on Lamar Jackson‘s passing yardage set at 212.5 passing yards. The Chiefs’ defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards the last two weeks. No QB their first team defense has faced in the last four weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air.
Conversely, I want to take the over on Jackson’s rushing yards prop set at 59.5 rushing yards. The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs came away with an upset win on the road in Buffalo during the Divisional Round.
Starting running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for nearly 100 yards (97) averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, long of 29 yards, while catching his lone target for 14 yards. He played 72% of the snaps.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 2 attempts, 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, long of 28 yards.
I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the MORE THAN his 63.5 rushing yards prop this weekend on Prizepicks. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three straight games and 60 or more in 6 of his last 8 games played.
The Ravens’ run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed 93 rushing yards per game to RBs at the fourth-highest yards per carry (4.7). 6 of the last 8 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.
Patrick Mahomes rushed 6 times for 19 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per attempt, a long of 24 yards. Mahomes completed 17 of 23 passes, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, long of 32 yards, a passer rating of 131.6.
The Ravens’ first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they have faced. Lean toward the MORE THAN on Mahomes’ 244.5 passing yards prop this week on Prizepicks.
Target Shares from Week 20:
- Travis Kelce: 6 targets (29% of team pass attempts), 5 receptions, 75 yards, averaging 15.0 yards per reception, 2 touchdowns, long of 29 yards. 84% snap share.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 4 targets (19% target share), 2 receptions, 62 yards, averaging 31.0 yards per reception, long of 32 yards. Led the team with 68 air yards and finished 3rd in snaps among WRs (50%).
- Rashee Rice: 4 targets (19%), 4 receptions, 47 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per reception, long of 25 yards. Led the team in WR snaps played at 64%.
- Noah Gray: 3 targets (14%), 3 receptions, 16 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per reception, long of 12 yards.
- Mecole Hardman: 1 target (4.8%), 1 reception, 2 yards, long of 2 yards. Also rushed inside the goal-line and fumbled through the end zone for a touchback ruling. 5th in WR snaps (38%).
- Justin Watson: 1 target (5%), 0 receptions. 4th in WR snaps (44%).
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 1 target (5%), 1 reception, -1 yard.
The Chiefs will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in the AFC Championship Games as 3-point road underdogs.
Don’t love a ton of props other than the MORE THAN on Rice’s 6.5 receptions. The Ravens rank second in the NFL in targets to WRs per game. 8 of the last 11 WRs have gone over their receptions prop versus Baltimore.
Rice has 6-plus catches in 6 of his last 9 games played, including 8-plus catches in 3 of his last 4 road games played.
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