The AFC East title and the AFC’s No. 2 seed are up for grabs in the final game of the regular season. The game has top-shelf talent on both clubs and some valuable ancillary players with cap-friendly salaries.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Spread: BUF -2.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills have leaned on the running game since their bye in Week 13. According to RotoViz's pace app, they've had a 51% situation-neutral rush rate in four subsequent games. However, Miami's opponents have had a 55% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 14. So, the Bills might ask more from Josh Allen as a passer than they have lately.
Fortunately for Allen, the matchup is tasty. According to The 33rd Team, Miami has coughed up 20.7 DraftKings points per game, 19.2 FanDuel points per game, 264 passing yards per game, eight passing touchdowns and 18 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks since Week 14. Additionally, Allen has succeeded in three games against Miami's defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio.
In three games against Fangio (2019 and 2021, when he was the head coach of the Broncos and in Week 4 against the Dolphins), Allen has passed for 864 yards (288.0 per game), 9.6 yards per pass attempt, eight passing touchdowns and completed 71.1% of his passes. Allen also ran for 106 yards (35.3 per game) and three touchdowns in those contests.
Allen hasn't been sharp lately. Nevertheless, this is a get-right spot. The dual-threat quarterback has also been a DFS asset even while playing below his capabilities, producing multiple touchdowns in every game except the season's opener. He's arguably the top option on the showdown slate.
Stefon Diggs has underperformed lately and could catch Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage. Thus, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and, to a much lesser extent, Dawson Knox are Buffalo's most alluring pass-catching weapons. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Davis (106 routes), Kincaid (94), Shakir (86) and Knox (50) have run the most, third-most, fourth-most and sixth-most routes for the Bills since Week 14.
Davis is an all-or-nothing, boom-or-bust pick. This season, he's had three games with at least 100 yards and a touchdown and four more with a touchdown. However, Davis has also had five games with fewer than 10 receiving yards and seven with fewer than 25. Xavien Howard is out, and Davis could benefit from Ramsey shadowing Diggs if the Dolphins use their top corner in that capacity.
Shakir has a sweet matchup as a slot. According to The 33rd Team, the second-year pro has had a 58.8% slot rate this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed the 10th-most DK (23.8) and tied for the ninth-most FD (19.2) points per game allowed to slots since Week 14.
Kincaid and Knox also have a favorable matchup. The Dolphins have allowed the 11th-most DK (14.0) and tied for the ninth-most FD (11.6) points per game allowed to tight ends since Week 14. Kincaid has run twice as many routes (100 versus 50) as Knox since Buffalo's bye, and the rookie had an excellent showing against the Patriots last week, securing four receptions for 87 receiving yards on seven targets. Still, Knox is the cheapest intriguing player on this slate.
James Cook is Buffalo's second-best DFS pick. He's been a focal point of Buffalo's offense since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the team's offensive coordinator in Week 11. The second-year running back has had at least 15 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in all six of Brady's games as the offensive coordinator. Moreover, Cook has taken advantage of the enhanced role, earning a target on 24.2% of his routes and posting 471 rushing yards (78.5 per game), 4.5 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 17 receptions (2.8 per game), 207 receiving yards (34.5 per game), 2.27 Y/RR and three receiving touchdowns.
Cook has a DFS-friendly matchup tonight. The Dolphins have coughed up the ninth-most DK (25.7) and the eighth-most FD (22.6) points per game to running backs since Week 14. Running backs averaged 64 rushing yards per game, 4.8 receptions per game, 52 receiving yards per game, 11.1 yards per reception and scored six touchdowns (four rushing and two receiving) against Miami in those contests. Cook is game-script-proof and should be busy against the Dolphins.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins have a pass-first offense, and teams have chosen to attack the Bills through the air. Since Week 14, Miami has had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Bills have faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate. Thus, the Dolphins will likely ask Tua Tagovailoa to shoulder the load.
Tagovailoa was a house of fire earlier this season. However, he's been less impressive lately, tossing multiple touchdown passes only once in his previous four games and just three times in his past eight. Tagovailoa also doesn't add value with his legs. He can thrive if he's given time and settles into a groove. Yet, he's not a must-use player.
Tyreek Hill is Miami's top DFS option and rivals Allen for the best pick on the slate. Cheetah is tied for third in receptions per game (7.5), first in receiving yards per game (114.5) and second in receiving touchdowns (12) this season. Hill is a target hog. Yet, if Jaylen Waddle's ankle injury sidelines or limits him, Hill could see an uptick in his already robust workload.
The matchup isn't ideal for Hill. Obviously, he's a matchup-proof superstar. Still, he's had a few clunkers against the Bills in nine career games against them. Regardless, Hill's upside is exceptional.
Cedrick Wilson and Durham Smythe are useful salary-relief choices. Since Week 14, Wilson has run the second-most routes (102), and Smythe has run the most routes (105) for the Dolphins. In that four-game stretch, Wilson had nine receptions, 101 receiving yards and one touchdown reception, and Smythe had 14, 158 and zero. Both players would move up the passing-game pecking order if Waddle can't play or suffers an in-game setback with his ankle injury.
De'Von Achane is healthier than Raheem Mostert. The latter managed only one limited practice (Friday) this week after he was inactive in Week 17. Achane made the most of his increased role last week, toting the rock 14 times for 107 yards (7.6 yards per carry) and reeling in four receptions for 30 receiving yards and one touchdown on five targets. Achane doesn't have an easy matchup. However, his game-changing speed makes him a threat to make a house call from anywhere. Achane's floor and ceiling are higher if Mostert is inactive. Still, the rookie running back is a rock-solid pick, even if his veteran teammate returns from a one-game absence.
Final Thoughts: Allen is the top Captain/MVP pick. Hill is alone in the second tier. Cook and Achane are third-tier choices, and Davis is viable as well. Balanced lineups or ones leaning toward the Bills are the most appealing construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
