It’s the final week of the NFL regular season. I hope you’ve profited off this write-up in all your DFS endeavors, and maybe we’ll continue into the playoffs. It’s quite possible that this article may be totally obsolete in a couple of days due to resting players before the playoffs (Christian McCaffrey is already out), so be sure to be up to date on the news as it comes. Twenty teams are still in playoff contention, so we could still get some fantasy fireworks.

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 17

QUARTERBACK

Tyrod Taylor (NYG) | ($5300) vs PHI

For the second consecutive week, Taylor headlines the quarterback section of this write-up. Although he made some terrible real-life plays, Taylor was a boon for fantasy, finishing with 22.76 DK points which was good for QB6. It’s still possible that the Giants go back to Tommy DeVito for one more game, but I don’t see it. Taylor gives them the best chance to win, and the Eagles allow the most fantasy football points per game (FPPG) to opposing quarterbacks. Taylor is still not priced as a starting QB.

RUNNING BACK

Elijah Mitchell (SF) | ($5800) vs LAR

DraftKings made an attempt to price Elijah Mitchell up in the wake of Christian McCaffrey’s calf injury, but they really didn’t do it enough. On paper this is a terrible matchup, as the Los Angeles Rams allow the fewest rushing yards and the second fewest FPPG to running backs. However, the Niners will lean on Mitchell heavily in a highly efficient offense. Volume, talent, and price tag should overtake the matchup woes here.

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | ($5000) @ ARI

This one is huge, as Kenneth Walker‘s status is one of the most important things to watch on this slate. Walker aggravated his shoulder injury this past week, and ultimately did not return. If he can’t go or is limited, Charbonnet is going to be one of the top plays for DFS at $5000. It’s a must-win game for Seattle, and Arizona has allowed the most FPPG to opposing running backs (and it’s not particularly close). Charbonnet has GPP appeal even if Walker plays, but would be a stone cold lock if he were to sit.

WIDE RECEIVER

Brandin Cooks (DAL) | ($5200) @ WAS

It’s the CeeDee Lamb show in Dallas, so other pass catchers are often hard to trust. However, this is a week to load up on all of them, and Brandin Cooks’ price should have moved more ahead of this matchup. Washington’s defense is a glutton for punishment from opposing passing games this year, and I shudder to think what Dallas can do to them in a game the Cowboys absolutely have to win. Cooks had eight targets last week and is a featured player in the red zone (seven touchdowns this year). Washington has allowed the most receiving yards and the second most FPPG to opposing wide receivers.

Demarcus Robinson (LAR) | ($4500) @ SF

Robinson failed to extent his scoring streak to five consecutive games, but he still went 6-92-0 on ten targets against the New York Giants and his price went … down Robinson has 34 targets over the past five weeks, and this is a critical game for the Rams. The Niners have been vulnerable through the air, allowing the tenth most FPPG to opposing wide receivers along with the ninth-highest yards per catch.

TIGHT END

Johnny Mundt (MIN) | ($3000) @ DET

Mundt is the “cheap TE du jour” in this final week of the season. He went up $500 from min-price last Sunday, but $3000 is still an easy call for money saving. Mundt wasn’t T.J. Hockenson, but he did his best impression with a touchdown catch on seven targets. Detroit is likely to pull the pedal off the gas in this one as they’re looking pretty likely for their playoff spot to be locked in, and they’ve been vulnerable over the middle for the second half of the season.

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