Welcome to my Weekly DFS Cheat Sheet. If you love The Primer, my weekly fantasy football novella, you’ll thoroughly enjoy this cliff notes addition. For my in-depth thoughts on the players listed here, see the Primer for my full breakdowns, but if you’re a DFS degen like myself rifling through numerous lineups only minutes before lock, you’ll love this listicle of players I want to target for each game.
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NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Conference Championship Round
Conference Championship Round Main Slate
Lions vs. 49ers
- Core Plays: Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
- GPP Only: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Reynolds, Sam LaPorta
Conference Championship Main Plays
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Goff proved this year he should be the franchise passer for Detroit for years to come. He ranks tenth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, 12th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff was fantastic last week, completing 69.8% of his passes with 287 passing yards and 20.1 fantasy points. Since Week 13, the 49ers have remained a tough pass defense, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 12th-lowest CPOE. They have shown some bend in that timeframe, though, as they have given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Their biggest weakness has been against play-action passing. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and third-highest passer rating to play-action passing. Goff ranks third in play-action dropbacks and first in play-action passing yards this season. He’s a fantastic contrarian play this week.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: David Montgomery is one of my favorite plays of the week. In the playoffs, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played with 14 touches and 57.5 total yards. He has remained the Lions’ red zone and goal line back with a 90.9% snap rate inside the five and a 58.3% snap rate in the red zone. He ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit should lean on their backfield this week. Since Week 13, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk: Last week Aiyuk had a quiet outing with a 15.4% target share and a 22.9% air-yard share but he led the team with a 23.5% first-read share. This week Aiyuk should come roaring back against the Lions. Since Week 17 Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Aiyuk has been San Francisco’s main squeeze against single-high with a 26% target share, a 42.2% air-yard share, 3.61 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. In Weeks 14-18, Detroit allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and PPR points per target to opposing perimeter wide receivers.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Kittle should be second in line to attack Detroit’s single high coverage this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Against single-high, he has a 20.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. In the regular season, Detroit allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
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