NFL DFS Picks: Chiefs vs. Ravens (Conference Championship)

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NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Conference Championship Round

Conference Championship Round Main Slate

Chiefs vs. Ravens

Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce
GPP Only: Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Noah Gray

Conference Championship Main Plays

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been dealing all year, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback. The rushing equity has been ramped up in the playoffs, too, which gives him slate-breaking upside. In five career playoff games, he has surpassed 54 rushing yards four times while posting at least 100 rushing yards three times. Jackson will have to don the cape and be Superman this week against a tough Kansas City pass defense. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: In the playoffs, Pacheco has averaged 71% of the snaps played with 20.5 touches and 95.5 total yards per game. Since returning to the lineup, Pacheco has been fantastic, with a 5.9% explosive run rate while also chipping in 2.56 yards after contact per attempt. In the final six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line was steamrolling opponents, ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Look for Pacheco to be leaned on this week. The biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense has been against the run. Since Week 13, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: Last week, Rice was dinged up and played only 64% of the snaps. We’ll see what his practice reports look like this week, but assuming he’s good to go, he should lead the way for Kansas City’s passing attack this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Rice has had a team-leading insane 38% TPRR and 3.81 YPRR with a 29% first-read share. Rice has overcome tough matchups and posted scintillating stat lines this season. I won’t be surprised if he does it again this week.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Last week, Kelce turned in a vintage performance with a 26.1% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 3.75 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Look for him to push Rice for the team lead in targets this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Kelce has had a 26% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.