We are moving on in the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, we welcome the Divisional Round. With a bevy of big games this week and the stakes being even higher, it will be another fun week of DFS.

Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups. Here is this week’s primer for the full slate of NFL games. Below we dive into Texans vs. Ravens.

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The Primer: Divisional Round

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -9, O/U 44.5
• Texans vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Yes, he is a rookie, but this fact remains true. Since Week 11, He has ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Baltimore poses a tough task this week. Since Week 14, they have allowed the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE, but the Ravens’ secondary has also shown some give. In the same span, they have yielded the seventh-most passing yards per game and the 12th-most passing touchdowns. While Baltimore has ranked fourth-best in time to pressure in their last five games, they also sit at 27th in pressure rate, so Stroud should have time to pick the secondary apart. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Since Week 11 among 23 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks first in yards per attempt and CPOE and third in fantasy points per dropback against two-high.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been on another level this season. Since Week 11, he has been fifth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating and CPOE. Since Week 11, he has been second behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per dropback. Houston has been a torchable pass defense for most of the season. Since Week 14, they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt and passing yards per game and the third-highest CPOE. Expect Jackson to test this pass defense deep. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the second-most deep passing yards and the ninth-highest CPOE to targets 20 yards or further downfield.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: Singletary remains the Texans’ clear workhorse. In four of his last five games, he has played at least 62% of the snaps while averaging 22.5 touches and 97.7 total yards in those four games. Among 49 qualifying backs, Singletary ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Singletary is one of the best plays of the slate. Since Week 13, Baltimore has been a run funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: Collins has been a monster this season. Stroud has leaned on him heavily in recent weeks. Since Week 16, he has had a 30% target share, a 45.2% air-yard share, 49% of the team’s receiving yardage, 5.3 yards per route run, and a 35.5% first-read share. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Across his last five games played without Tank Dell in the lineup, Collins has had a 33% TPRR and 6.45 YPRR against two-high. Collins will smash again this week. Since Week 14, Baltimore has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Zay Flowers: Flowers has flashed more of a ceiling over the last few games as he has eclipsed 19.6 PPR points in four of his last five games with four scores and five red zone targets. Since Week 14, Houston has utilized two-high at the third-highest rate (61.8%). In Weeks 1-17, Flowers ranked second in target share (19.1%), fourth in TPRR (18%), and second in first-read share (27.7%) against two high. His efficiency against two-high hasn’t been great in his last 16 games, with only 1.12 YPRR, but the volume should be there this week to help counteract that. Flowers could also contribute with some splash plays if Jackson goes deep. Flowers ranks 21st among wide receivers in deep targets. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr.’s playing time has fluctuated this season, but he has played at least 53% of the snaps in three of his last four games, and we could see his usage climb even higher this week. It’s win-or-go-home time, and the Ravens have kept Beckham Jr. in bubble wrap all year, but now is the time to unleash him. Since Week 14, Houston has utilized two-high at the third-highest rate (61.8%). In Weeks 1-17, Beckham ranked second on the team in TPRR (24%) and YPRR (1.70) against two high while leading the way in air-yard share (30.7%). If we zoom in further to Weeks 12-17, Beckham Jr.’s numbers get even better with a 37.7% air-yard share, a 25% TPRR, and 2.23 YPRR against two high. Beckham is my favorite point-per-dollar Ravens receiver this week. Since Week 14, Houston has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Schultz has become the clear number two option in the passing attack for Stroud, and that should continue against Baltimore. Since Week 14, Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (60.6%). Since Week 13 against two high, Schultz has ranked second in TPRR (24%), third in YPRR (2.56), and second in first-read share (15.8%). Baltimore has struggled to defend tight ends. Since Week 10, they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, the sixth-highest yards per reception, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. If you are double-stacking Stroud, it’s easy. It’s Collins and Schultz.

BAL TEs: I’ll update this on Friday once we get more clarity regarding Mark Andrews‘ availability this week. If he returns, it’ll muddy up this situation, so stay tuned.

HOU vs. BAL

• Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Devin Singletary, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Dalton Schultz, C.J. Stroud
• GPP Only: N/A

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