NFL DFS Picks & Advice: Rams vs. Lions (Sunday)

IT’S PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TIME, BABY! Now, the season after the season begins. Anything can happen in the playoffs. We have seen in previous years Cinderella teams keep the magic going and advance deep into the playoffs. We have also witnessed NFL Goliaths get trounced by lowly-seeded teams. My body is ready for the chaos.

The chaos of injuries and a playoff slate that extends across three days should make it a wonderful DFS slate for us to get different with our lineups. Embrace variance. Embrace the wildness of playoff DFS. Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Here is the complete Super Wild Card Weekend Primer. Below we dive into Rams vs. Lions.

DFS Primer: Wild Card Weekend

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

DET -3, O/U 51.5
Rams vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Since Week 12 Stafford has been playing some of the best football of his career. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked third in passing touchdowns and passer rating, fifth in yards per attempt,and seventh in CPOE. Stafford should have a wonderful homecoming this week against a pass defense that since Week 13 has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest CPOE.

Jared Goff: Goff has had one of the best seasons of his career. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in passing yards per game, ninth in passer rating, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback and CPOE. The Rams have evolved into an absolute pass funnel. Since Week 13 they have been carved up by quarterbacks allowing the third-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-highest CPOE.

Running Backs

With short slates, you have to take stances because you can’t play everyone. For this Wild Card slate, I’m fading both of these backfields and investing in these passing attacks. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, followed by the Rams with the fifth-fewest. During this span, Los Angeles has allowed the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt, followed by Detroit, who has permitted the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua: Nacua finished as the WR6 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in targets, eighth in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, and fifth in yards after the catch. He was also 20th in red zone targets and 26th in deep targets. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 12-17 against single-high, Nacua has had a 21.7% target share, a 25.4% air-yard share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 23.5% first read share. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game while ranking ninth in red zone targets. He scored at least 19 PPR points in 33% of his games this season. Kupp could have a vintage performance this week. Since Week 13, Detroit has utilized single-high on 53.2% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 12-17 against single-high, Kupp has had a 30.2% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 2.24 YPRR, and a 34.6% first-read share. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the second-most receiving yards to slot receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown has been everything you could have possibly hoped for this season. He had at least 100 receiving yards in 56% of his games this season. He finished the season ranked fifth in targets, third in red zone targets, second in receptions, and third in receiving yards. Since Week 13, Los Angeles has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 11-17, against those coverages, St. Brown has had a 29.1% target share, 2.94 YPRR, and a 36.8% first-read share. St. Brown is set for another monster game.

Jameson Williams: Williams is in play for MME, large field GPPs, or if you are stacking Goff or just this game. Since Week 13, Los Angeles has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 11-17, against those coverages, Williams only had a 9.4% target share, but he accounted for a 26.8% air-yard share and 2.09 YPRR. Williams will go overlooked on this slate, but please include him in your player pool. He’s an easy way to bring down the total roster percentage of your lineup because he will not be a popular play.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee could be back this week. He is dealing with a shoulder issue and didn’t practice at all last week. He didn’t play in Week 18, which could easily be related to his shoulder injury, but it could also be related to the fact that the Rams sat all their top-shelf starters. Higbee practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. If he continues to trend in the right direction, I’ll update his blurb on Friday and add him to the player pool for this slate. Stay tuned.

"He's improving"

DC on Sam LaPorta's status pic.twitter.com/rt1NL6aLLi

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 10, 2024

Sam LaPorta: LaPorta sustained a gruesome knee injury in Week 18, but the Lions have stated that he is day-to-day. Per Dan Campbell, the team won’t have a strong lean on whether LaPorta will play until Friday afternoon, so for now, we wait, and I’ll update LaPorta’s status on Friday.