We are moving on in the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, we welcome the Divisional Round. With a bevy of big games this week and the stakes being even higher, it will be another fun week of DFS.

Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups. Here is this week’s primer for the full slate of NFL games. Below we dive into Packers vs. 49ers.

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The Primer: Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -9.5, O/U 50.5
• Packers vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has been balling since Week 9, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, second in passer rating and CPOE, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He faces a 49ers’ pass defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest passer rating while also allowing the 13th-most passing touchdowns and ranking 16th in CPOE. Green Bay will look to exploit San Francisco’s weakness in defending play-action passing. Since Week 9, Love has had the third-most play-action dropbacks. Across their last six games, San Francisco has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the fourth-highest CPOE to play-action passes. Love continues to cement this status as Green Bay’s new franchise quarterback this week.

Brock Purdy: Purdy has been a fantasy superstar this season as the QB6 with nine games with at least 20 fantasy points. Purdy ranked first in yards per attempt and passer rating, sixth in passing yards per game, and second behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy should carve up a pass defense that, since Week 14, has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, and the second-highest passer rating.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has been a joy to watch play the last few weeks. Seeing him finally healthy at the right time has been a godsend for Green Bay. Since Week 16 he has averaged 23 touches and 134.2 total yards. In that same timeframe, among 35 qualifying backs, he has ranked eighth in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. He takes on an overrated 49ers’ run defense. Since Week 13, San Francisco has quietly allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt with the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Across the same span they have allowed THE highest yards per carry (5.06!) and the fourth-highest success rate to zone runs (Jones 62% zone).

Christian McCaffrey: This sounds like a tall order for McCaffrey, but it isn’t. He has hit the over for this mark in four of his last five games and the only game in which he didn’t was against Washington when he left due to injury. McCaffrey remains arguably the best running back in the NFL. He averaged 21.2 touches and 126.5 total yards this season. He was fourth in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey should have no problems rolling up yardage against Green Bay. Since Week 13, the Packers have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (McCaffrey 64.7% zone).

Wide Receivers

Romeo Doubs: Last week, the Packers utilized a committee rotation with their wide receivers, but Doubs led the way with a 66.7% route run rate. He was the only Green Bay wide receiver to log over a 53% route run rate. This week, he should lead the pack again. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 54.1% of their defensive snaps. This season, Doubs has led the team with a 25% TPRR and six end-zone targets against those coverages while also logging 1.7 YPRR. If Green Bay also hopes to attack San Francisco with a healthy dose of play-action, Doubs will be involved. He leads the team in play-action targets.

Jayden Reed: Last week, Reed was only a part-time player. In the first quarter, he only had a 44.4% route run rate, as the only players with higher than 65% route run rates were Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. Reed is stackable with Love this week, but he likely won’t make my single entry or three max builds. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 54.1% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 3 & Cover 4, Reed ranks second on the team in TPRR (23%) and YPRR (2.07, minimum 50 routes). If Reed’s route share bounces back this week, it should be Doubs and him leading the way for Green Bay through the air.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel was fantastic when on the field this season as the WR12 in fantasy points per game while ranking 14th in red zone targets and scoring the fourth-most total touchdowns. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, Samuel has been the 49ers’ preferred option against two high with a 27.6% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. All of those marks lead the team, along with his 0.68 fantasy points per route run against two high. Samuel is a must if you are game-stacking this contest or playing Purdy. Since Week 14, Green Bay has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the sixth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk had a marvelous season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game while ranking 24th in receptions, seventh in receiving yards, and 18th in yards after the catch and total touchdowns among wide receivers. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Aiyuk has had a 17.3% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, 1.95 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. In that span, against that coverage type, he leads the team in air-yard share while ranking second in YPRR and first-read share. Aiyuk is staring down Kittle and McCaffrey as the second option for Purdy stacks. Since Week 14, Green Bay has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the sixth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle has shown no signs of slowing down this year as the TE6 in fantasy, ranking first in deep targets and 10th in red zone looks. He finished the season with five games with 19.6 or higher PPR points. Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Kittle has ranked second on the team with an 18.4% target share, third in YPRR (1.92), and third in first-read share (19.3%). Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game, the ninth-most receiving yards per game, and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

GB vs. SF

• Core Plays: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
• GPP Only: Jayden Reed, Brandon Aiyuk

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