One more round of the NFL Playoffs, and we will be left with only the Super Bowl. It’s crazy. The NFL season has flown by. Can Jared Goff and the fighting Dan Campbells take down the Goliath that is the 49ers? Will Lamar Jackson continue to add to his MVP candidacy and slay the impervious Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs? I can’t wait. It will be a heart-pounding weekend of football.

Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Here is the full Conference Championship Primer. Below we dive into the NFC Championship: Lions vs. 49ers.

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The Primer: Conference Championship

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -7, O/U 50.5
• Lions vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff proved this year he should be the franchise passer for Detroit for years to come. He ranks tenth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, 12th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff was fantastic last week, completing 69.8% of his passes with 287 passing yards and 20.1 fantasy points. Since Week 13, the 49ers have remained a tough pass defense, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 12th-lowest CPOE. They have shown some bend in that timeframe, though, as they have given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Their biggest weakness has been against play-action passing. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and third-highest passer rating to play-action passing. Goff ranks third in play-action dropbacks and first in play-action passing yards this season. He’s a fantastic contrarian play this week.

Brock Purdy: Purdy had a tough game last week, but it won’t stop me from going right back to him in DFS. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt and passer rating, eighth in CPOE, and third in fantasy points per dropback. He’ll most likely be chalky this week, but I don’t care. Detroit hasn’t proven they can stop anyone through the air. Since Week 13, they have allowed the most passing yards per game and the highest yards per attempt while also giving up the seventh-highest CPOE.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has been unstoppable. In the playoffs, he has averaged 12.5 touches and 91 total yards with scores in both games. Gibbs ranks second in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs should have another strong game against a 49ers’ run defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

David Montgomery: David Montgomery is one of my favorite plays of the week. In the playoffs, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played with 14 touches and 57.5 total yards. He has remained the Lions’ red zone and goal line back with a 90.9% snap rate inside the five and a 58.3% snap rate in the red zone. He ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit should lean on their backfield this week. Since Week 13, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is in play every slate. Last week, he played his usual every-down role (98% of the snaps) with 24 touches and 128 total yards (two touchdowns). McCaffrey ranks fourth in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a daunting task with Detroit’s run defense bearing down. Since Week 13, they have ranked 15th in explosive run rate with the fourth-highest stuff rate and the 11th-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey can still get it done via the touchdown department and through the air. Detroit has also allowed the second-highest yards per reception to running backs.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is as automatic as they come. He’s had at least 21 fantasy points in five of his last six games, with at least nine targets and 77 receiving yards in each contest. He has 13 red zone targets over his last six games. Since Week 15, the 49ers have utilized two high on 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against two high, St. Brown has had a 28.3% target share, a 36.2% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Goff will PEPPER him with targets this week. In Weeks 14-18, the 49ers allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to slot receivers.

Josh Reynolds: If Goff is looking to attack the 49ers with a heavy dose of play-action, Reynolds will be involved. In the playoffs, he has had an 83% route run rate, a 14.3% target share, 1.7 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. This season, with play-action dropbacks, Reynolds ranked second in first-read share (16.7%) and had a strong 1.92 YPRR.

Brandon Aiyuk: Last week Aiyuk had a quiet outing with a 15.4% target share and a 22.9% air-yard share but he led the team with a 23.5% first-read share. This week Aiyuk should come roaring back against the Lions. Since Week 17 Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Aiyuk has been San Francisco’s main squeeze against single-high with a 26% target share, a 42.2% air-yard share, 3.61 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. In Weeks 14-18, Detroit allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and PPR points per target to opposing perimeter wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: When Goff drops back, he’ll be looking for St. Brown first, and if he’s not open, then it’s Sammy Ballgame time. Since Week 15, the 49ers have utilized two high on 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against two high, LaPorta has ranked second on the team with a 15.2% target share and 18.3% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, the 49ers allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

George Kittle: Kittle should be second in line to attack Detroit’s single high coverage this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Against single-high, he has a 20.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. In the regular season, Detroit allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

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