One more round of the NFL Playoffs, and we will be left with only the Super Bowl. It’s crazy. The NFL season has flown by. Can Jared Goff and the fighting Dan Campbells take down the Goliath that is the 49ers? Will Lamar Jackson continue to add to his MVP candidacy and slay the impervious Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs? I can’t wait. It will be a heart-pounding weekend of football.
Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.
Here is the full Conference Championship Primer. Below we dive into the AFC Championship: Chiefs vs. Ravens.
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The Primer: Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
- BAL -3.5, O/U 44.5
- Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been dealing all year, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback. The rushing equity has been ramped up in the playoffs, too, which gives him slate-breaking upside. In five career playoff games, he has surpassed 54 rushing yards four times while posting at least 100 rushing yards three times. Jackson will have to don the cape and be Superman this week against a tough Kansas City pass defense. Since Week 13, they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: In the playoffs, Pacheco has averaged 71% of the snaps played with 20.5 touches and 95.5 total yards per game. Since returning to the lineup, Pacheco has been fantastic, with a 5.9% explosive run rate while also chipping in 2.56 yards after contact per attempt. In the final six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line was steamrolling opponents, ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Look for Pacheco to be leaned on this week. The biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense has been against the run. Since Week 13, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Gus Edwards: Baltimore blowing the doors off Houston last week skewed the snap counts. Don’t get it twisted. This is still Edwards and Justice Hill‘s backfield, as Dalvin Cook only played one snap in the first half. Edwards played 46.2% of the rushing snaps and 38.7% overall, but that should rise this week as Baltimore should lean on their ground game. He also played every snap inside the five-yard line while splitting the red zone snaps with Hill. Among 69 qualifying running backs, Edwards ranks 33rd in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards should find running room against a run defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the lowest stuff rate, and the 12th-highest success rate to gap runs (Edwards 58.2% gap).
Justice Hill: Last week, Hill played 57% of the snaps with 15 touches and 77 total yards. In the first half of last week’s game, he played 64.5% of the snaps with a whopping 72.2% of the passing down snaps. He split the red zone snaps evenly with Edwards in the first two quarters. Hill ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in explosive run rate. Hill could have another busy week against the Chiefs and is in play for GPPs. Since Week 13, the Chiefs have allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the lowest stuff rate, and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Hill 54.8% zone).
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: Last week, Rice was dinged up and played only 64% of the snaps. We’ll see what his practice reports look like this week, but assuming he’s good to go, he should lead the way for Kansas City’s passing attack this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Rice has had a team-leading insane 38% TPRR and 3.81 YPRR with a 29% first-read share. Rice has overcome tough matchups and posted scintillating stat lines this season. I won’t be surprised if he does it again this week.
Zay Flowers: Last week, only Flowers and Rashod Bateman had at least a 73% route run rate as Baltimore split up the WR3 role between Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor. I won’t be surprised if Kansas City lets L’Jaruis Sneed shadow Flowers, but they didn’t have him shadow Stefon Diggs last week (followed on 48.6% of his routes), so I’m not projecting that Sneed shadows this week. Since Week 17, Kansas City has utilized two high with 81.6% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, Flowers has led the team with a 21.8% target share and 36% first-read share against two high although he has only produced 1.37 YPRR. He has also led the team with 0.47 fantasy points per route run against two high. When Jackson drops back this week, he’ll be looking for Flowers early and often.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Last week, Beckham Jr. only had a 36.7% route run rate overall, but in the first half, when the game was closer, his route run rate was at 50%. If last week’s game had been closer, Beckham Jr.’s usage would have theoretically been better from a route share perspective. Since Week 17, Kansas City has utilized two high with 81.6% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, Beckham Jr. has been the team’s second go-to against two high with a 24% TPRR, 2.14 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Beckham Jr. is in play for single entry and MME.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Last week, Kelce turned in a vintage performance with a 26.1% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 3.75 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Look for him to push Rice for the team lead in targets this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Kelce has had a 26% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Noah Gray: Gray is only in play in MME or if you’re game stacking this game. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Gray has had a 22% TPRR, 1.73 YPRR, and one end zone target. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
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