NFL DFS Picks & Advice: Chiefs vs. Bills (Sunday)

We are moving on in the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, we welcome the Divisional Round. With a bevy of big games this week and the stakes being even higher, it will be another fun week of DFS.

Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups. Here is this week’s primer for the full slate of NFL games. Below we dive into Chiefs vs. Bills.

The Primer: Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -2.5, O/U 46
Chiefs vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Playing Josh Allen this week is just expecting Josh Allen to do Josh Allen things. Allen has scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. With Joe Brady calling the shots, Allen has been rushing more, with at least 44 rushing yards in four of his last eight games. In Weeks 1-10, Allen had at least 44 rushing yards only twice. Since Week 11, Allen has ranked 10th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passing yards per game, and first in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 14, Kansas City has fielded a nasty pass defense, allowing the lowest yards per attempt, third-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been a workhorse without Jerick McKinnon. In four of those five games, he has played at least 70% of the snaps while averaging 21 touches and 98.2 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs in the regular season, Pacheco ranked 11th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco should have 20-25 touches this week against a soft Buffalo Bills’ run defense. Since Week 13, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

James Cook: Cook is the undisputed lead back for Buffalo. Since Week 11, he has averaged 19.8 touches and 91.8 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs in the regular season, he ranked 24th in explosive run rate and 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The last time he faced Kansas City, he finished with 15 touches while churning out 141 total yards. Since Week 13, Kansas City has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, ranked 17th in rushing yards per game, and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: Rice has been the primary guy for Patrick Mahomes since Week 12. Since Week 17, Buffalo has the eighth-highest rate of two high (58.8%). Since Week 12, against two high, Rice has had a 22.5% target share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 27.8% first-read share. The last time he faced this secondary, Rice secured seven of his 10 targets with 72 receiving yards and a score. Rice could improve upon those numbers this week.

Khalil Shakir: Last week, only Shakir and Stefon Diggs had route run rates of at least 73% (Shakir 73.5%). Shakir only saw a 10% target share, but he had 31 receiving yards and a score. Since Week 17, Kansas City has had the highest rate of two high in the NFL (84.1%). Since Week 12, Shakir has had an 11.1% target share and 1.53 YPRR against two high. Shakir is only in play this week if you’re game-stacking this contest or playing Allen. Since Week 14, Kansas City has allowed the 17th-most receiving yards to slot receivers.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce has taken a step back this season, but that doesn’t mean he is off the radar for DFS. Since Week 17, Buffalo has had the eighth-highest rate of two high (58.8%). Since Week 12, against two high, Kelce has had a 20.2% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share (team-leading. Since Week 6, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-most receptions and the ninth-highest catch rate to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid: Last week, Kincaid had a 61.8% route run rate, a 20% target share, a 45.9% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 26.1% first-read share. Kincaid has stepped up big time down the stretch for Buffalo, with Stefon Diggs falling off. He’ll be counted on heavily again this week. Since Week 17, Kansas City has had the highest rate of two high in the NFL (84.1%). Since Week 12, against two high, Kincaid has had an 18.2% target share (second on the team), 2.30 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share (second on the team). Stacking Allen with Cook and Kincaid is the way I’ll be approaching most of my Allen teams this week.

KC vs. BUF