We are moving on in the NFL Playoffs. With Super Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, we welcome the Divisional Round. With a bevy of big games this week and the stakes being even higher, it will be another fun week of DFS.
Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups. Here is this week’s primer for the full slate of NFL games. Below we dive into Buccaneers vs. Lions.
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The Primer: Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
- DET -6.5, O/U 48.5
- Buccaneers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has resurrected his career. He has continually improved this season with the Bucs. Since Week 14, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield is in a smash spot. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the seventh-most passing touchdowns.
Jared Goff: Goff has been a revelation this season. Among 57 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked sixth in passing yards per game, 10th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and 12th in CPOE. Tampa Bay is a pass-funnel defense, as they have clamped down on the run. Detroit should look to air it out this week against the Bucs. Since Week 11, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and passing yards per game and the 12th-highest CPOE. The quarterbacks in this game might not have sexy names, but they are fantastic plays.
Running Backs
With any short slate, you have to take stances with your builds because, unfortunately, you can’t play everyone. One of my stances for this slate is to fade both of these backfields. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, followed immediately by Tampa Bay.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans: Evans has had a wondrous season, and he could easily continue to build upon it this week. He was the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in deep targets, 14th in red zone targets, ninth in receiving yards, and second in total touchdowns. Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Evans has demolished single-high this season with a 26.6% target share, a 42.9% air-yard share, 3.0 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Evans is one of my favorite plays of this slate.
Chris Godwin: Godwin finished the regular season with a flurry, with at least 11 targets in three of his final five games. He saved his day last week late in the game with a touchdown, but he still only had five targets, four receptions, 45 receiving yards (and a score). Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Godwin has been the team’s preferred second option against single-high this season with a 21.2% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. Godwin is in play as a one-off play or as a stacking partner for Mayfield if you’re doubling him. Since Week 14, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is in play weekly. As the WR4 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in red zone targets, second in receptions and yards after the catch, and third in receiving yards, he has been a superstar. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, St. Brown has had a superb 27.3% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 32.9% first-read share. He should have no issues cutting this secondary to pieces. Since Week 14, Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers.
Josh Reynolds: Last week, I was expecting Jameson Williams to answer the call and step up, but Reynolds intercepted that speed dial. In the wild-card round, Reynolds had a 90% route run rate, 25.9% target share, 42.3% air-yard share, and a 35.3% first-read share. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, Reynolds has had a 15% TPRR, 1.37 YPRR and ranked second on the team with four end-zone targets. Reynolds is a strong value play this week against a Bucs secondary that, since Week 14, has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: Otton has had a 12.9% target share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 13% first-read share this season. He ranks 11th in red zone targets among tight ends. He’s coming off a strong performance in the Wild Card round. He’s in play again this week, but his star isn’t bright this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.6%). Against single-high, Otton has disappeared with a 9.3% target share, 0.81 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the third-highest yards per reception, and the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Otton is stackable with Mayfield or utilized in a game stack.
Sam LaPorta: The legend of Sammy Ballgame continues to grow. Last week, he made a miraculous recovery, logging a 73.3% route run rate, 11.1% target share, and a 5.9% first-read share. LaPorta should be even closer to full health this week in a fantastic matchup. Since Week 17, Tampa Bay has ranked 10th in single-high rate (58.8%). Against single-high, in the regular season, Ballgame had a 22.7% target share, a 25.4% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points and the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
TB vs. DET
- Core Plays: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Sam LaPorta
- GPP Only: Chris Godwin, Cade Otton
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