Sunday is the busiest day of the Super Wild Card weekend, featuring three games. The first is a lousy weather game, and the second and third are indoors. Each game has exciting DFS choices, with the second game including the most suggested selections.
Super Wild Card Sunday Matchups
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -10.0
Over/Under: 36.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The weather forecast is cold, windy and possibly snowy in Buffalo for Sunday's first game. The lousy weather could be problematic for Pittsburgh's and Buffalo's passing games. Yet, that's unlikely to bother the Steelers when the game is close. According to RotoViz's pace app, Pittsburgh's 66% situation-neutral rush rate since Mason Rudolph's first start of the season in Week 16 was the highest in the NFL.
Still, the Steelers are the largest underdog on the slate, too. So, Jaylen Warren is the most desirable option in Pittsburgh's backfield, owning part of the backfield's rush share and the majority of the passing-game work. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 15, Warren has rushed 40 times for 172 yards and one touchdown versus 84 for 345 and four for Najee Harris. However, Warren also ran 76 routes and had 21 targets, 19 receptions and 98 receiving yards versus only 21, five, five and 21 for Harris. Warren is less likely to get phased out of the contest in a negative game script and can chip in value as a runner if the game is close, making him a more desirable option than Harris.
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen's passing was erratic in the final four games of the regular season. According to PFF, he had a 64.4% completion rate, 73.7% adjusted completion rate, 859 passing yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, four passing touchdowns and four interceptions. However, Allen's 359 passing yards in Week 18 against the Dolphins were tied for his highest total this season.
Additionally, the dual-threat quarterback's passing production is only part of what he brings to the table. Allen is a weapon as a rusher. He averaged 30.8 rushing yards per game and had 15 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has also ratcheted up Allen's designed runs. Per The 33rd Team, Allen had eight and nine designed runs in Week 17 and Week 18, respectively, his second-highest and highest totals this season. The bulldozer quarterback had at least four designed runs in his final five games in the regular season. Allen has a high ceiling worth chasing in GPPs but isn't a must-use player on this three-game slate since there are many exciting quarterbacks to choose from in better playing conditions.
Khalil Shakir is one of the most desirable punts on Sunday's main slate. According to The 33rd Team, the second-year pro has had a 59.5% slot rate this season, and the Steelers allowed more DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to slots (19.3 and 15.1) than to perimeter wideouts (13.0 and 10.4) since Week 15. Shakir is coming off his second 100-plus-yard effort of the season, ripping the Dolphins for six receptions and 105 receiving yards on six targets.
He should have an enhanced role this week since Gabe Davis is unlikely to play through a sprained PCL, bumping Shakir up the pecking order. The second-year wide receiver is tied for the WR7 value score (WR7V) at DK.
Dalton Kincaid is also coming off a strong showing and can garner more of Allen's attention without Davis. Since Week 15, the rookie tight end has run the third-most routes (84) for the Bills and was second on the team in targets (19), third in receptions (12) and third in receiving yards (178). He had over 80 receiving yards in back-to-back games to close the regular season.
Pittsburgh is an unimposing matchup for Kincaid this week. Since Week 15, tight ends have had 13.7 DK points per game, 11.2 FD points per game, 5.0 receptions per game, 56 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Kincaid is projected to be the TE2 on Sunday's main slate, with the TE1V at both providers.
James Cook could be the focal point of Buffalo's offense this week. Yet, that's not out of the ordinary lately. Since Week 15, the Bills have had the third-highest situation-neutral rush rate (54%). Cook handled 74 of the backfield's 107 rushing opportunities (69.2%) since Week 15, scampering for 333 rushing yards, 4.5 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown.
The second-year running back was also involved in the passing game, pacing the backfield in routes (63), targets (10), receptions (six), receiving yards (54) and receiving touchdowns (one) in Buffalo's final four games in the regular season. Ty Johnson's 18 routes were the second most in Buffalo's backfield.
Cook has a juicy matchup in the opening round of the playoffs. Since Week 15, the Steelers have allowed running backs 20.3 DK points per game, 17.1 FD points per game, 87 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 5.0 receptions per game, 33 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
Buffalo's defense is the DST1 with the DST1V on this slate. The Bills are double-digit favorites, and their defense should benefit from the lousy weather. They're also on a roll. They've held the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins to 17, 10, 22, 21 and 14 points since their bye in Week 13. They also forced nine turnovers and 13 sacks. Buffalo's defense can tee off on Rudolph if they're staked to a lead.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -7.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Jordan Love has smoothed out the variance from earlier this season and is reaching a crescendo in time for the playoffs. Love was PFF's second-ranked passer among 37 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 50 times since Week 15. In those four games, he completed 73.5% of his passes for 1,075 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Love's performance was all the more remarkable because of the numerous injuries to his pass-catching weapons. He might have all of his pass-catchers against the Cowboys.
A fully stocked cupboard is tricky to sort through. Nevertheless, Jayden Reed is the safest pick. In Reed's final three games in the regular season, he was targeted on an eye-popping 34.4% of his routes and had 16 receptions, 253 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are more volatile selections, albeit with tantalizing ceilings. The former hasn't played since Week 13. However, Watson had seven receptions, 71 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns, two rush attempts and 15 rushing yards in his last healthy game and rattled off 5-94-1 in the prior contest.
Wicks flashed his potential early in the season and popped down the stretch. In his last three games in the regular season, Wicks had 16 targets, 14 receptions, 187 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. When Watson was healthy in Week 13, Romeo Doubs ran 32 routes, Watson ran 29, Reed ran 20 and Wicks ran 16.
Reed, Watson and Wicks have all routinely played the slot, with slot rates of 75.2%, 65.2% and 67.2% this season. Since Week 15, the Cowboys have allowed 12.1 DK and 9.1 FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers and 13.8 and 10.7 to slots.
Tucker Kraft is the cheapest DFS-friendly tight end on this slate. Luke Musgrave returned from injured reserve (IR) in Week 18 and ran only six routes versus a team-high 29 for Kraft. Kraft had three receptions for 31 receiving yards last week, marking his sixth consecutive game with at least three receptions and over 30 receiving yards. His floor and ceiling are reduced if all of Green Bay's wide receivers are active. Still, it appears Kraft has overtaken Musgrave on Green Bay's depth chart.
Since Aaron Jones returned from a multi-week absence in Week 15, the Packers have had a truly balanced offense, with a 50/50 situation-neutral pass and run rate. Jones had a solid-if-unspectacular 69 scoreless scrimmage yards and four receptions in Week 15 before catching fire. In the last three games of the regular season, he had 135, 130 and 141 scrimmage yards and seven receptions.
Johnathan Hankins is trending toward returning to Dallas's defensive line and would provide them with a critical run-stuffer. Still, running backs have smashed the Cowboys for 29.0 DK points per game, 25.5 FD points per game, 119 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game, 30 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns since Week 15. Even if Hankins is active, he's unlikely to fix Dallas's Charmin-soft run defense entirely.
Green Bay's defense has a nightmare assignment this week. Nonetheless, defense is volatile, and the Packers can get after quarterbacks, tallying at least four sacks in three of their previous four games. Additionally, the Cowboys have committed a turnover in each of their past four games. Green Bay's defense isn't an outrageous punt, especially when stacked with Jones.
Cowboys Analysis: Mike McCarthy has put the ball in Dak Prescott's hands, and he's answered the call. The veteran quarterback has had an MVP-caliber season and has been lights out at home. In eight games at home this season, Prescott averaged 308.8 passing yards per game, completed 73.26% of his passes, tossed 22 touchdowns and threw only three interceptions.
Prescott shouldn't meet much resistance this week. Since Week 15, the Packers have allowed quarterbacks 18.8 DK points per game, 17.3 FD points per game, 255 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns, 13 rushing yards per game and had only one interception. Green Bay's secondary might also be without Jaire Alexander after he hurt his ankle in practice on Thursday when he stepped on a teammate. Prescott is projected to be the QB1 on this slate, with the QB2V at DK and the QB1V at FD.
CeeDee Lamb is in an eruption spot. Dallas's No. 1 wide receiver has averaged 9.1 receptions per game and 119.4 receiving yards per game with nine touchdowns (eight receiving and one rush) at home this year.
He should also excel in the matchup. Lamb has had a 59.5% slot rate this year, and slots have barbecued the Packers for 27.7 DK points per game and 22.7 FD points per game since Week 15. Lamb is projected to be the WR1 in DFS, with the WR1V at DK and the WR3V at FD.
Brandin Cooks will also have access to the favorable matchup in the slot. The veteran wideout has had a 53.7% slot rate this season. In addition, in Dallas's final four games in the regular season, he was second on the team in routes (139), tied for second in targets (25), third in receptions (16), third in receiving yards (126) and second in receiving touchdowns (three).
Jake Ferguson was the other involved pass-catching option throughout the season and to close it out. Since Week 15, he was third on the team in routes (136), tied for second in targets (25), second in receptions (20) and second in receiving yards (191). Ferguson didn't score any touchdowns in those games. Still, the second-year pro had five touchdown receptions this season.
Ferguson has a rock-solid matchup and a DFS-friendly projection. Since Week 15, tight ends have had 13.1 DK points per game, 10.8 FD points per game, 4.5 receptions per game, 55 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns against the Packers. Thus, Ferguson is projected as the TE1 in DFS on Sunday, with the TE2V at both providers.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -3.0
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Matthew Stafford had a renaissance season and has a cushy matchup against his former employer in the Wild Card Round. The rocket-armed veteran has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games and surpassed 315 passing yards in his final two.
He was inactive in Week 18 and returns to a mouthwatering matchup against a pass-funnel defense. Since Week 15, the Lions have faced a 67% situation-neutral pass rate and coughed up 22.8 DK points per game, 20.5 FD points per game, 343 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks. They did force seven interceptions, but that shouldn't detract gamers from using Stafford.
Cooper Kupp was a key cog in LA's offense. Yet, Puka Nacua had better underlying data in Stafford's final four starts (Week 14 through Week 17). They were tied for the team lead in target share (26.3%), but Nacua had more air yards per game (81 versus 58) and YAC per game (56 and 39). The stud rookie converted his sterling underlying data into 24 receptions, 416 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Nacua also ran seven times for 44 yards.
Demarcus Robinson was also a significant contributor at the end of the regular season. From Week 14 through Week 17, he had a 21.2% target share, averaged 97 air yards per game and had 17 receptions, 264 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. Robinson also had a 23-yard run.
Nacua and Robinson should shred the Lions from the slot. The former had a 59.7% slot rate, and the latter had a 58.6% slot rate this season. Detroit coughed up 29.5 DK and 22.6 FD points per game to slots since Week 15. Nacua is projected to be the WR3 in DFS on Sunday, with the WR2V at DK and the WR1V at FD. Robinson is a useful pick at FD. However, he's a screaming value at DK with the WR4V.
Kyren Williams has a brutal matchup. The second-year pro shouldn't be eliminated as a DFS option, though. Williams is a workhorse, tallying at least 22 touches in six games after he was activated from IR, smashing opponents for 204, 112, 113, 155, 104 and 101 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. The bell-cow running back's elite volume gives him a massive ceiling, even in a challenging matchup.
The cheap defenses leave a lot to be desired on this three-game slate. The Rams forced only 15 turnovers in the regular season, and their 41 sacks were below average. Could Sean McVay help Raheem Morris get the better of Jared Goff? Maybe. McVay coached Goff for four seasons and conceivably knows how to trip him up.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown is a borderline unstoppable force. He had over 100 receiving yards in nine games and scored a touchdown in 10, combining both feats five times this season. The Sun God is entering the playoffs on a four-game streak with over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, besting 100 receiving yards three times and producing 90 receiving yards and 11 rushing yards once. In that four-game stretch, he also averaged 8.0 receptions per game.
Jameson Williams had an encouraging three-game period from Week 15 through Week 17 before resting an ankle injury in Week 18. In Williams's last three games, he was targeted on 23.5% of his 68 routes and had 11 receptions, 159 receiving yards and 2.34 Y/RR.
The second-year speedster has fully practiced this week. He's not in danger of missing this game, and the Lions might need to call his number more often against the Rams. Sam LaPorta hasn't practiced this week. The dynamic rookie tight end is optimistic about his ability to suit up, but his lack of practice participation paints a bleaker picture, and he obviously wouldn't be 100% healthy if he could suit up.
St. Brown and Williams have a drool-inducing matchup against LA's secondary. The Rams have been burned by perimeter wideouts for 22.0 DK and 17.2 FD points per game and by slots for 28.7 and 22.9 since Week 15.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
