The NFL week begins with a pair of AFC games with playoff implications on Saturday. However, one team is unmotivated since they’re locked into the AFC’s top seed. Predictably, that team has the fewest DFS options. The three other clubs are well-represented on the two-game main slate.
Week 18 Matchups
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: PIT -4.0
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers are in the thick of the playoff hunt and have plenty of motivation to give it their all against the Ravens. They're sticking with Mason Rudolph after back-to-back wins.
George Pickens has thrived with Rudolph as the starting quarterback. Since Week 16, he's had a 32.6% target share and averaged 110 air yards per game, turning his superb underlying data into 11 receptions, 326 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Pickens can stay hot this week. The Ravens could rest some starters on defense. Additionally, they're a good matchup for wide receivers. According to The 33rd Team, Baltimore has allowed 17.0 DraftKings points per game and 13.5 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 14. They also coughed up 22.1 DK and 17.6 FD points per game. Per The 33rd Team, Pickens has a 26.2% slot and a 70.4% wide rate this season.
Even though Pickens has thrived, the Steelers have leaned heavily on the running attack in Rudolph's starts. According to RotoViz, Pittsburgh's 64% situation-neutral rush rate was the NFL's highest by five percent since Week 16.
Since week 14, Baltimore has allowed 23.8 DK points per game, 18.8 FD points per game, 100 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 5.5 receptions per game, 30 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can both feast. The former is the lead runner in the two-headed backfield. In six games since former offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired, Harris has had 101 rush attempts for 424 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns versus 60, 259 and one for Warren.
However, Warren is the club's pass-catching back. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Warren has run 36 routes and had 10 targets, nine receptions and 53 receiving yards compared to eight, zero and zero for Harris in the previous two games. Harris is the more appealing pick if the favored Steelers are in a positive game script. Yet, Warren is an intriguing selection if Tyler Huntley and Co. give the Steelers a fight.
Pittsburgh's defense won't face Lamar Jackson this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Huntley has had a 7.4% sack rate and a 2.2% interception rate in his career. Those would be the 11th-highest and tied for the 12th-highest marks among qualified quarterbacks this season. Baltimore will likely also rest other starters or pull them early, enhancing the appeal of using Pittsburgh's defense.
Ravens Analysis: J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell had season-ending injuries this year. It would be coaching malpractice for John Harbaugh to play Gus Edwards and Justice Hill significant snaps this week. Thus, Melvin Gordon should handle most of the workload in a tasty matchup.
The Steelers have allowed 25.7 DK points per game, 21.8 FD points per game, 88 rushing yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 6.3 receptions per game, 48 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to running backs since Week 14. Gordon doesn't have much, if anything, left in the tank. Yet, volume is the king at running back, and double-digit touches against Pittsburgh's defense could be enough for him to provide DFS gamers with value at his punt salary.
Isaiah Likely has admirably filled in for an injured Mark Andrews. Playing the second-year pro more than a few series this week would be playing with fire. It could be a golden opportunity for Charlie Kolar, another second-year player, to get meaningful snaps.
Kolar has caught precisely one pass in three straight games for 15, 17 and 19 yards. He also scored a touchdown against the Dolphins last week. Kolar has run only 38 routes this season. Still, he had an outstanding preseason. In three preseason games this season, Kolar had 10 targets, eight receptions, 120 receiving yards and 3.00 Y/RR on 40 routes.
He was also productive at Iowa State. In 2019, Kolar had 51 receptions, 697 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. In 2020, he had 44, 591 and seven. Finally, Kolar closed his collegiate career with 63, 764 and six. The matchup isn't too shabby, either. The Steelers have allowed 14.7 DK points per game, 12.3 FD points per game, 4.8 receptions per game, 54 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 14.
Baltimore's defense isn't an outrageous DFS selection. They might not rest everyone and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has squeezed every ounce of the defense this season. Moreover, Rudolph's two-game heater is an outlier relative to his prior level of play. Before this season, he'd thrown 16 touchdowns versus 11 interceptions. No one should be surprised if Rudolph turns into a pumpkin.
Game: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -1.0
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans didn't need much from C.J. Stroud in his return from a two-week absence last week. Nevertheless, the rookie's sharp showing was encouraging since he had a dud against the Jets before missing two games while in the NFL's concussion protocol. Stroud is far and away the best quarterback on this two-game slate.
Furthermore, this game will put a bow on an outstanding rookie campaign. Stroud has averaged 274.6 passing yards per game with 21 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. When the Texans played the Colts in Week 2, Stroud lit them up for 384 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. He can light them up again in a must-win game.
Nico Collins is Houston's No. 1 wideout. In a breakout campaign, he's averaging 5.1 receptions per game and 78.7 receiving yards per game with seven receiving touchdowns. The big-bodied wideout has exploded a few times this season, besting 100 receiving yards four times and scoring at least one touchdown in each of those contests. He's even exceeded 145 receiving yards three times, including barbecuing the Colts for seven receptions, 146 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 2.
In the previous two weeks, Robert Woods has run the most routes (70) for the Texans, turning his route participation into 10 targets, six receptions and 72 receiving yards. The veteran wideout was injured late last week and could miss this contest. Nonetheless, Woods is a viable punt if he suits up.
Xavier Hutchinson is an acceptable punt if Woods or Noah Brown is out. He's run 37 routes versus 33 for John Metchie in the previous two games. Hutchinson hasn't done much during the regular season since he was buried on the depth chart. On 39 routes in the preseason, Hutchinson had six receptions, 70 receiving yards and 1.79 Y/RR. He also had 107 receptions, 1,171 receiving yards, 2.72 Y/RR and six receiving touchdowns in 12 games in his final collegiate season at Iowa State in 2022.
Devin Singletary has usurped Houston's feature-back gig. In Houston's last four games, Singletary has handled 64 of the backfield's 85 rush attempts (75.3%), rumbling for 310 yards and one touchdown.
Additionally, he ran 65 routes in those games versus 49 for Dare Ogunbowale, 16 for Andrew Beck and 15 for Dameon Pierce. Singletary wasn't merely running empty routes, either. He had 10 receptions and 74 receiving yards.
Singletary has a mouthwatering matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed 30.9 DK points per game, 25.2 FD points per game, 106 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 7.0 receptions per game, 70 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 14.
Colts Analysis: The Colts have a pass-leaning offense, with a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 14. Michael Pittman is the alpha in the passing attack. The fourth-year pro has averaged 6.9 receptions per game and 73.9 receiving yards per game with four touchdown receptions in 15 games this season.
He's a versatile wideout, aligning in the slot 57.2% of the time and wide at a 35.6% clip this season. Pittman can barbecue Houston's secondary from either spot. Since Week 14, the Texans have permitted 19.1 DK and 16.2 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts and 18.2 and 11.9 to slots.
Josh Downs hasn't been as consistent as Pittman. Still, the rookie slot (75.2% slot rate) is a nifty pick on this two-game slate. In Pittman's last four healthy games (Weeks 13, 14, 15 and 17), Downs has run the third-most routes (107) for the Colts.
The tight end landscape is ugly on Saturday's NFL DFS slate, thrusting Kylen Granson into the picture. In Indy's past four games, his 62 routes were the most among their tight ends. Granson has had three games over 60 receiving yards in his sophomore campaign, and the matchup is inviting. Tight ends have averaged 13.2 DK points per game, 10.3 FD points per game, 5.8 receptions per game, 59 receiving yards per game and scored one touchdown against the Texans since Week 14.
Jonathan Taylor hasn't been eased back into action since a three-game absence with a thumb injury. In two games since his return, he's had 19 and 22 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets). Taylor has also scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Taylor isn't bulletproof, though. Zack Moss could siphon some of Taylor's work after missing the past two games. In addition, the Texans have stymied running backs, holding them to 51 rushing yards per game, 2.2 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 5.3 receptions per game, 30 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown since Week 14. Even with Taylor's blemishes, he's the highest-ceiling running back on the slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
