The NFL Divisional Round DFS main slate at DraftKings has Saturday and Sunday games, and FanDuel split them into a Saturday and Sunday main slate. However, FD also has a weekend slate. The DFS slate is flush with options from every team.
Divisional Round Matchups
Game: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -9.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins had a breakout campaign and was a stud in his postseason debut, torching the Browns for six receptions, 96 receiving yards and one touchdown reception despite C.J. Stroud missing him on a broken coverage for a would-be 59-yard touchdown. Since Stroud returned in Week 17 from a two-week absence with a concussion, Collins has had 24 targets, 22 receptions, 371 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Collins was used inside and out this year. According to The 33rd Team, he had a 54.5% slot rate and a 44.8% wide rate. Collins also had a season-high 57.9% wide rate in Week 17 and 52.2% in Week 18. His increased usage on the perimeter at the end of the year was ideal for this matchup. According to The 33rd Team, since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed 16.6 DK and 13.4 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts versus 14.6 and 11.3 to slots.
Devin Singletary is an intriguing selection if the Texans can keep it closer than the spread suggests. Since Week 17, Motor has handled 53 of Houston's backfield's 65 rush attempts (81.5%) for 209 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. In addition, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Singletary ran 50 routes compared to only three for Dameon Pierce and had seven receptions for 12 scoreless yards. So, even if the Texans are in a negative game script, Singletary should be on the field and have receiving opportunities.
The matchup is tasty, too. The Ravens have allowed running backs 23.8 DK points per game, 19.1 FD points per game, 101 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 5.6 receptions per game, 28 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns since Week 10.
The Texans are road underdogs. Nevertheless, the defense is a viable choice. First, the Ravens could be rusty since their MVP-favorite quarterback and other integral starters haven't played since Week 17. Second, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans were tied for the 16th-most turnovers (24) and tied for 13th in sacks (46) in the regular season, making them an average or slightly above-average defense at forcing turnovers and sacking opposing quarterbacks.
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson will almost assuredly win the MVP award after a stellar season. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken used the dual-threat quarterback's arm regularly at the end of the year. According to RotoViz's pace app, from Week 14 through Week 17, the Ravens had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate.
During that period, Jackson completed 79 of 124 pass attempts (63.7%) for 1,060 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Of course, passing was only part of the story. He also ran for 247 yards at 6.9 yards per attempt. Jackson's passing and rushing skills give him a sky-high ceiling in a good matchup. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Texans permitted quarterbacks 19.8 DK points per game, 18.5 FD points per game, 256 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards per game and four rushing touchdowns.
Mark Andrews isn't a safe pick since the team could ease him in after missing two months of action. Yet, he was a full practice participant starting on Wednesday, positioning him to make an impact immediately, albeit with the risk of Isaiah Likely cutting into his playing time.
Andrews had 4.5 receptions per game, 54.4 receiving yards per game and six receiving touchdowns in 10 games this season. Sadly, John Harbaugh wouldn't entirely commit to Andrews playing, saying his status is "up in the air." Likely is a compelling pick if Andrews is inactive. From Week 14 through Week 17, Likely had 15 receptions, 251 receiving yards, 1.92 Y/RR and four receiving touchdowns.
Did the Ravens intentionally limit Odell Beckham's playing time in the regular season to keep him healthy and unleash him in the playoffs? Maybe. From Week 14 through Week 17, OBJ was fourth on the Ravens in routes (89), fourth in targets (16), sixth in receptions (eight), third in receiving yards (157) and had a touchdown (one). Still, he had a rock-solid 1.76 Y/RR and was a vertical weapon with a 20.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Beckham was primarily used wide (76.6%) but had a season-high 47.1% slot rate in Week 17. He would benefit from retaining his slot usage surge. From Week 10 through Week 18, Houston allowed perimeter wide receivers 15.3 DK and 13.1 FD points per game and coughed up 20.7 and 16.0 to slots.
Justice Hill is the cheapest useful running back on this slate. The Texans have snuffed out running backs, holding them to 18.6 DK points per game, 16.0 FD points per game, 76 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry from Week 10 through Week 18. However, they allowed them 4.6 receptions per game, 27 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. Hill is Baltimore's receiving back and handles some of the rushing workload. Unfortunately, there's a risk the Ravens have a three-back committee this week. Gus Edwards has been the featured runner, and Dalvin Cook will reportedly play. Still, Hill is the best bet to handle the valuable receiving work.
Baltimore's defense doesn't have an easy assignment against Stroud. The rookie quarterback had only nine turnovers in the regular season. He did take multiple sacks in 10 of 15 games, including absorbing five in the season opener against the Ravens. Baltimore's defense can give him trouble if Houston's forced into predictable passing situations as a sizable road underdog.
Game: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -9.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Packers Analysis: The Packers boat raced the Cowboys last week as road underdogs. However, they have another tall task this week against the 49ers. Fortunately, Jordan Love has answered the bell down the stretch.
Love was PFF's highest-ranked passer among quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks since Week 10. He completed 68.5% of his 340 pass attempts for 2,710 yards (271.0 per game), 23 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He's in an unmatched groove and has a fully stocked cupboard of electrifying young pass-catching weapons. So, don't dismiss Love in GPPs.
Circling back to Green Bay's fully stocked cupboard, the Packers rotated their dynamic youngsters last week, with Romeo Doubs pacing the group with 16 routes on Love's 21 dropbacks. Tucker Kraft was second (14 routes), Dontayvion Wicks was third (13), Jayden Reed Was fourth (11) and Christian Watson ran just eight. Luke Musgrave had three receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown but ran only eight routes, and the touchdown came on a play he was completely uncovered. Kraft's route participation was more significant. So, he's a more inviting pick than Musgrave this week.
Wicks had two receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown, and Watson had one nine-yard scoreless reception. Still, the former and the latter have big-play ability and can make the most of a rotation role. Doubs's performance last week was an outlier, and going overboard investing in him is point-chasing. Instead, gamers should zig to Wicks or Watson at lower salaries. Love will take to the air often if the Packers are in the negative game script the point spread suggests. Furthermore, if they defy the odds and beat the 49ers, Love and his young pass-catchers will undoubtedly have a hand in the upset.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey was a borderline unstoppable force in the regular season. In 16 games, he had over 90 scrimmage yards 14 times, over 100 scrimmage yards 12 times, scored a touchdown in 13 games, scored multiple touchdowns in five games and had over 100 scrimmage yards and at least one touchdown 10 times.
CMC is a weapon as a receiver, catching at least three passes in 14 games. He should feast against the Packers. From Week 10 through Week 18, Green Bay yielded running backs 21.9 DK points per game, 18.6 FD points per game, 95 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, seven rushing touchdowns, 3.2 receptions per game, 21 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. McCaffrey should be force-fed the ball against a defense that's faced a 48% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 16.
The 49ers have a massive implied total and could score their touchdowns through the air. Therefore, Brock Purdy is also an excellent selection. The 49ers had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 14 through Week 17. Moreover, Purdy was PFF's second-ranked passer among quarterbacks who dropped back at least 125 times since Week 10 and completed 70.5% of his passes for 2,247 yards (280.9 per game), 19 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight games.
The matchup is unimposing. In Green Bay's final nine games in the regular season, they allowed quarterbacks 17.8 DK points per game, 16.8 FD points per game, 234 passing yards per game, 13 passing touchdowns and 27 rushing yards per game, with only three interceptions. In the Wild Card Round, Dak Prescott had 403 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, two interceptions, six rushes and 45 rushing yards.
Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are high-upside stacking options with Purdy or one-off picks. From Week 14 through Week 17, Aiyuk had 22 receptions, a team-high 390 receiving yards, 3.00 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown, and Kittle had 15 receptions, 285 receiving yards, 2.24 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown.
The matchups are tasty for both pass-catchers. Aiyuk had a 68.9% slot rate and was in the slot on at least 84.6% of his snaps three times this year. Meanwhile, slots barbecued the Packers for 24.3 DK and 19.2 FD points per game from Week 10 through Week 18. In that timeframe, tight ends smashed them for 13.8 DK points per game, 11.6 FD points per game, 4.4 receptions per game, 58 receiving yards per game and five receiving touchdowns. They also didn't have any answers for Jake Ferguson last week, as he had 10 receptions, 93 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -6.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Baker Mayfield is the victim of a number crunch. This four-game slate is stacked with quality options at quarterback. Fortunately, his pass-catchers are a means of access to Tampa Bay's passing potential.
Since Week 16, the Buccaneers have had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Lions have faced a 69% situation-neutral pass rate, the highest by six percent. Tampa Bay ratcheted up their situation-neutral pass rate to an eye-popping 70% against the Eagles on Monday night.
As a result, Mike Evans has a slate-breaking ceiling against Detroit's Charmin-soft secondary. Since Week 16, he's had 24 targets, 16 receptions, 226 receiving yards, a 15.4-yard aDOT and two receiving touchdowns. While those were adequate numbers, Evans showed he's capable of more, popping off for 6-171-1, 6-143-1, 6-70-2, 7-162-1 and 7-86-2 in games this season.
The big-bodied wide receiver had a 43.1% slot rate and 56.9% wide rate this year, posting at least a 71.0% slot rate in three games. He can cook the Lions from the perimeter or the slot. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Lions allowed perimeter wide receivers 18.8 DK and 15.0 FD points per game and ceded 25.9 and 20.1 to slots.
Trey Palmer is a boom-or-bust punt. The speedy rookie was fifth on the Bucs in routes (97) and had 19 targets, 11 receptions, 192 receiving yards, 1.98 Y/RR, a 12.2-yard aDOT and two receiving touchdowns in their previous four games. Palmer's 60.4% slot rate this season is ideal since slots were more successful against the Lions than perimeter wideouts.
Tampa Bay's defense attempts to heat up quarterbacks with blitzes. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they had the third-highest blitz rate (40.1%) in the regular season, turning their blitz-happy approach into 48 sacks and 26 turnovers. When these teams squared off in Week 6, the Lions had 20 points in Tampa Bay. Finally, Jared Goff was PFF's 20th-ranked passer among 33 who dropped back at least 75 times against the blitz this season.
Lions Analysis: Goff has played much better at home than on the road in his time with the Lions, and this year wasn't an exception. According to Pro-Football-Reference, in eight home games in the regular season this year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes for 280.0 yards per game, 8.45 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (AY/A), 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for two touchdowns at home.
The veteran pocket passer didn't disappoint the home crowd last week, either. Goff completed 81.5% of his 27 pass attempts against the Rams for 277 yards, 11.0 AY/A, one touchdown and zero interceptions. He also had 353 passing yards, a 68.2% completion rate, 8.93 AY/A and two passing touchdowns against the Bucs in Week 6. Additionally, from Week 10 through Week 18, Tampa Bay allowed quarterbacks 16.4 DK points per game, 15.4 FD points per game, 243 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing yards per game, two rushing touchdowns and had only six interceptions. So, the matchup shouldn't dissuade gamers from using Goff in DFS this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has brilliantly blended high-level play and consistency this season. The Sun God has had over 100 scrimmage yards 11 times, caught a touchdown in 10 games, had at least six receptions in 14 games and accomplished all three feats in six of 17 games this year. ARSB had 7.4 receptions per game, 105.7 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns in seven games at home in the regular season and popped off for seven receptions and 110 receiving yards against the Rams last week.
St. Brown will give the Bucs fits, and his 74.1% slot rate this season is ideal for the matchup. Tampa Bay allowed slot wide receivers 18.7 DK and 14.4 FD points per game from Week 10 through Week 18 compared to 11.5 and 8.5 to perimeter wide receivers.
Jameson Williams hasn't been a significant target earner. The speedy second-year wideout has climbed Detroit's pecking order and showcased his wheels, though. Williams can punish Tampa Bay's blitz if it doesn't get home, as he did on a 45-yard touchdown reception against them earlier this season.
Sam LaPorta should be healthier this week, evidenced by fully participating in Wednesday's practice. Remarkably, he gutted out his knee injury last week. A healthier LaPorta is primed for a potential eruption against Tampa Bay's defense. From Week 10 through Week 18, tight ends had 16.1 DK points per game, 13.0 FD points per game, 6.1 receptions per game, 68 receiving yards per game and five receiving touchdowns against the Buccaneers. Finally, in the Wild Card Round, Dallas Goedert had four receptions, 21 receiving yards and a touchdown reception.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Isiah Pacheco has been a workhorse for the Chiefs. He's had precisely 25 touches in back-to-back games, reached at least 20 in five of his past six and scored at least one touchdown in five consecutive games. The second-year running back had only one reception last week. However, he had 19 receptions in the four prior games, catching at least three passes in each of those games. Pacheco is a game-script-proof running back.
Rashee Rice is the other exciting DFS selection from the Chiefs. He's bypassed Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes's top weapon. The rookie wide receiver has had at least five receptions in seven consecutive games, snaring at least seven receptions five times. Rice has eclipsed 125 receiving yards in back-to-back games and scored four touchdowns in his past seven games.
His deployment is also ideal for this matchup. Rice has had a 62.2% slot rate this season. Although, he was in the slot only 42.3% of the time against the Bills in Wee 14. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Bills allowed 14.6 DK and 11.5 FD points per game to slots compared to just 9.4 and 7.1 to perimeter wide receivers.
Justin Watson is a viable punt, with a 47.8% slot rate this season and a 42.1% slot rate against the Bills in Week 14. In Mahomes's last four starts (Week 15 through 17 and the Wild Card Round), Watson was third on the Chiefs in routes (106), tied for third in targets (13), tied for fourth in receptions (eight), third in receiving yards (130) and had a touchdown reception.
Kansas City's defense is an appealing choice. They were tied for the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.7) allowed, forced 17 turnovers, had the second-highest pressure rate (27.8%) and had the second-most sacks (57) in the regular season. Finally, Buffalo has had a few ugly games with many turnovers, enhancing the appeal of using Kansas City's defense against them.
Bills Analysis: The turnover bug has frequently reared its ugly head for Josh Allen. That doesn't diminish Allen's DFS excellence. The dual-threat quarterback averaged 253.3 passing yards per game, threw 29 touchdowns, averaged 30.8 rushing yards per game and ran for 15 touchdowns in the regular season. Allen had multiple touchdowns in every game but the opener this season.
The matchup isn't great. The Chiefs allowed quarterbacks 16.1 DK points per game, 16.1 FD points per game, 199 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns, 22 rushing yards per game and four rushing touchdowns from Week 10 through Week 18. Allen also had an underwhelming game against them in Week 14. So, Allen isn't a must-use player. Still, his ceiling is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs.
Dalton Kincaid is in a groove. The rookie tight end closed the regular season with back-to-back games over 80 receiving yards on four and seven receptions. Then, he had three receptions for 59 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round.
Since Week 16, Kincaid has led the Bills in receiving yards (237) on 15 receptions with one receiving touchdown. He's also been used vertically, sporting a 12.7-yard aDOT in those games.
Khalil Shakir is also peaking at the right time. Since Week 16, he's run the second-most routes (108) for the Bills and had the second-most receptions (16), the second-most receiving yards (220) and one touchdown reception. The second-year pro had six receptions for 105 receiving yards in Week 18 and secured all three of his targets against the Steelers for 31 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Shakir is primarily a slot wide receiver, which is good for this matchup. He had a 59.5% slot rate this season and 75.0% in Week 14 against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, from Week 10 through Week 18, Kansas City allowed 18.3 DK and 13.9 FD points per game to slots versus 7.0 and 5.5 to perimeter wide receivers.
James Cook isn't built like a bell-cow back, and Allen is essentially Buffalo's goal-line battering ram. Still, Cook has had at least 15 touches in all eight games since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the team's offensive coordinator and reached at least 20 five times.
Cook has a tasty matchup this week. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Chiefs yielded running backs 22.3 DK points per game, 18.4 FD points per game, 85 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 4.8 receptions per game, 34 receiving yards per game, 7.2 yards per reception and two receiving touchdowns. Furthermore, Cook had 10 rushes, 58 rushing yards, five receptions, 83 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 14.
Buffalo's injury report is stuffed with defenders. Yet, if some of their injured players can suit up, Buffalo's defense is a useful DFS pick. While Allen is often in the spotlight for his turnovers, Mahomes threw a career-high 14 interceptions and lost three fumbles in the regular season. Mahomes had a turnover in 13 of 16 games in the regular season. Finally, the Bills did an outstanding job of forcing turnovers and piling up sacks, ranking third in turnovers forced (30) and fourth in sacks (54) in the regular season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
