Four teams are left standing in contention for the Super Bowl. Each team has intriguing options. Still, the weekend’s largest underdog is the least interesting for DFS. It’s an excellent slate to use a running back or a tight end in the flex at DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the best DFS picks.
Championship Round Matchups
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -3.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is in excellent form. He hasn't committed a turnover or taken a sack in the playoffs, passing for 477 yards and three touchdowns and scampering for 60 yards.
Mahomes hasn't demonstrated a high ceiling this season, though. He's passed for multiple touchdowns only twice in his previous seven games and tossed more than two twice this year. As a result, Mahomes is only the third-most intriguing quarterback on this slate.
Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are Mahomes's top passing-game weapons. The former has had 12 receptions for 177 receiving yards and a touchdown, and the latter has had 12 receptions for 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs. No one else has reached double-digit targets for the Chiefs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the cheapest viable pass-catcher on the Chiefs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's run the fifth-most routes (32) and had the third-most targets (six) for the Chiefs in the playoffs. The one-trick speedster has had three receptions for 70 receiving yards in two playoff games.
According to The 33rd Team, MVS had a 54.6% wide alignment rate in the regular season. The Ravens were more beatable on the perimeter than from the slot at the end of the regular season. Per The 33rd Team, from Week 15 through Week 18, the Ravens permitted perimeter wideouts 18.6 DK and 15.1 FD points per game and held slots to 12.3 and 10.0.
Isiah Pacheco has Kansas City's softest matchup. Since Week 16, the Ravens have allowed running backs 104.3 rushing yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 7.8 receptions per game, 48.3 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
The second-year pro will have ample chances to gash the Ravens. The hard-charging running back has had at least 15 touches in eight straight games, reaching at least 20 five times during that period. Moreover, Pacheco has scored a touchdown in six straight games.
None of the defenses have an easy assignment this week, leaving Kansas City as the cheapest useful choice. They have a challenging assignment against the near-certain NFL MVP, but that not-so-mystery quarterback has taken multiple sacks in 12 of 17 games, including absorbing three last week.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens had a slow start last week. However, that was unsurprising after Lamar Jackson sat out a meaningless Week 18 game and was on a bye during the Wild Card Round. In the end, Jackson lit up the Texans for 152 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
In the MVP favorite's previous game, he torched the Dolphins for 321 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and 35 rushing yards. Jackson has tallied multiple touchdowns in three straight and four of his last five games. He's also rushed for at least 70 yards in three of his past five. The sky is the limit for Jackson this week, and he's projected to be the QB1.
Baltimore's tight ends are the most exciting access to their passing attack. The Chiefs have locked down wide receivers. However, they've allowed tight ends 6.0 receptions per game and 56.0 receiving yards per game since Week 17. Mark Andrews didn't return last week after fully practicing, but presumably will this week.
The stud tight end had 4.5 receptions per game, 54.4 receiving yards per game and six receiving touchdowns in 10 games this season. Isaiah Likely has stepped up in his absence. The second-year pro has had multiple receptions and cleared 30 receiving yards in seven straight games. He also had at least one touchdown reception in three straight and five of his past six games. Likely's an elite pick if Andrews is inactive again this week. Yet, gamers shouldn't discount the possibility of Likely retaining a meaningful role and helping DFS teams even if Andrews returns.
Zay Flowers is Baltimore's No. 1 wide receiver. In Jackson's last four starts (Week 15 through Week 17 and the Divisional Round game), Flowers was first on the Ravens in routes (107), targets (22), receptions (17) and receiving yards (226) and had two touchdown receptions. The rookie also had eight rush attempts for 56 yards and a touchdown this season, giving him another path to scoring fantasy points.
Flowers's deployment is also ideal for this tricky matchup. Flowers had a 54.2% slot rate in the regular season. From Week 15 through Week 18, the Chiefs held perimeter wideouts to 5.3 DK and 4.0 FD points per game but allowed 12.0 and 9.2 to slots.
Rashod Bateman had only a 25.6% slot rate and a 73.5% wide rate in the regular season. Obviously, that's suboptimal for his outlook. Nevertheless, he's been Baltimore's second-most involved and productive wide receiver. In Jackson's last four starts, Bateman was third on the team in routes (81), second in targets (18), third in receptions (11) and third in receiving yards (146).
The Ravens are favored at home. That's a good starting point for their talented defense. Circling back to Baltimore's defensive talent, per Pro-Football-Reference, they were tied for the fewest yards allowed per play (4.6), tied for the most turnovers forced (31) and had the most sacks (60) in the regular season. Finally, while Mahomes has been error-free in the postseason, he threw 14 interceptions and lost three fumbles in 16 games in the regular season.
Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -7.0
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Lions Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Lions have had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 17, and the 49ers have faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 16. However, the Lions would be wise to feed their running backs as long as the game is close.
San Francisco's run defense has been shielded by their offense providing them with positive game scripts. According to Sumer Sports, the 49ers have tied for the seventh-most Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush allowed to opponents. Additionally, since Week 16, running backs have had 75.3 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 3.8 receptions per game, 37.8 receiving yards per game and 10.1 yards per reception against the 49ers.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can eat. Montgomery is the team's lead runner in the two-back timeshare. In Detroit's previous four games, Montgomery has rushed 48 times for 195 yards and three touchdowns versus 45, 172 and three for Gibbs. Yet, Gibbs has less game-script risk as a dynamic pass-catching weapon. In that four-game period, Gibbs ran 60 routes and had 12 targets, nine receptions and 83 receiving yards compared to 56, six, four and 25 for Montgomery. Gibbs is the more desirable DFS pick. Still, Montgomery is a compelling tournament pick and can be used with Gibbs.
Josh Reynolds will likely be Detroit's most popular cheap wideout since he had five receptions for 80 yards in the Wild Card Round and two for 27 and a touchdown in the Divisional Round. Yet, Reynolds was targeted on just 12.6% of his routes and had 1.26 Y/RR in the last three games when Jameson Williams was also active. Comparatively, the speedy second-year pro was targeted on 12.3% of his routes and had 1.68 Y/RR. Taking a discount to spin to the speedy Williams is inviting.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey has a dreamy, unmatched floor and ceiling combination. CMC has had over 100 scrimmage yards, a touchdown or both in 16 of 17 games this season. The do-it-all back has had over 125 scrimmage yards in six of his previous seven games, scoring at least one touchdown in five of those contests and reaching paydirt multiple times in three. CMC has also had at least four receptions in four straight games and eight of his past 10. CMC is the most exciting pick at any position on this slate.
Brock Purdy and his healthy pass-catching weapons can carve up the Lions, too. The Lions have faced an NFL-high 67% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 17. Quarterbacks destroyed them for 364.3 passing yards per game and nine passing touchdowns in that period.
The second-year quarterback wasn't in top form in the rain last week and vomited all over his cleats against the Ravens in Week 16. Nevertheless, he was on point in Week 17 before resting in Week 18. Purdy had multiple passing touchdowns in six of his past nine games. He also demonstrated a juicy yardage ceiling, eclipsing 300 passing yards five times this season. Purdy is a superb selection on this slate.
Brandon Aiyuk is in an eruption spot, especially if Deebo Samuel's shoulder injury prevents him from playing on Sunday. From Week 15 through Week 18, the Lions coughed up 18.3 DK and 14.1 FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers and 29.5 and 22.6 to slots. In the playoffs, the Lions have been clowned by Puka Nacua (9-181-1) and Mike Evans (8-147-1).
Aiyuk is the next top-shelf wideout who should barbecue the Lions. In Purdy's past four starts, Aiyuk has led the 49ers in routes (143) and receiving yards (296). Aiyuk was second in receptions (19) and had one touchdown reception in that span. In addition, Aiyuk had 10 receptions and 166 receiving yards in two games without Samuel earlier this season. Even if Samuel suits up, Aiyuk is San Francisco's most desirable wideout.
George Kittle is also a mouthwatering pick. In Purdy's past four starts, his stud tight end has had 16 receptions, 290 receiving yards and one touchdown. Kittle also had 14 receptions for 227 receiving yards in the games Samuel was out this season. The matchup is also sweet. The Lions have allowed tight ends 5.0 receptions per game, 60.8 receiving yards per game and one touchdown since Week 17.
Ray-Ray McCloud would directly benefit from Samuel sitting out. McCloud had four receptions for 63 receiving yards in the two games Samuel was out. Kyle Shanahan has also historically given McCloud some rushing opportunities. McCloud's floor is low. However, he has enough juice to take advantage of a Charmin-soft matchup and warrants tournament consideration. McCloud's a more appealing pick if Samuel is out. Yet, the percentage of rosters McCloud is on would crater if Samuel is active, and it's not a shoo-in the banged-up Samuel can complete the entire contest, giving McCloud a sneaky path to contrarian value.
The 49ers are the largest favorite on this two-game slate, and San Francisco is at home. It's a perfect setup for their defense if the games go according to the betting expectations. Finally, San Francisco's defense can score fantasy points, tying for fifth in turnovers forced (28) in the regular season and tying for the seventh-most sacks (48).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
