Gamers shouldn’t have absolutes when drafting fantasy baseball teams. Reaching too far for a player will sap any upside they can provide. Still, identifying players to target at or slightly ahead of their average draft position (ADP) because they’re fairly valued or undervalued is prudent. The following 10 hitters are excellent targets, making them must-have selections near their ADPs. Below we’ll dive into a few notable names from the top-10 list.
Must-Have Hitters
Bryce Harper (PHI – 1B) – 28.8 ADP
According to ESPN, Harper’s return to MLB in 160 days after Tommy John surgery was a major league player’s fastest return on record. The speedy return had an apparent impact on his power. Harper had only three homers in his first 246 plate appearances last year.
Still, per FanGraphs, Harper had a .290 batting average, .386 OBP, 33 runs, 23 RBIs, five stolen bases, 13.4 BB%, 22.4 K%, 24.4 LD% and 35.7 Hard%. The two-time National League MVP was rock-solid, other than his diminished pop.
Fortunately, Harper regained his power down the stretch. In his final 300 plate appearances in the regular season, Harper swatted 18 homers with a .296 batting average, .413 OBP, 51 runs, 49 RBIs, six stolen bases, 15.7 BB%, 21.3 K%, 25.3 LD% and 44.9 Hard%. Furthermore, Harper blasted five bombs with a .286 batting average, .455 OBP, 14 runs, eight RBIs and three stolen bases in 55 plate appearances in the playoffs. Harper is precisely the high-floor and high-ceiling player gamers should be ecstatic to select in the top 25.
Nolan Jones (COL – 1B/OF) – 67.5 ADP
Jones ripped the cover off the ball in Triple-A before making a nearly seamless transition to the majors in his second stint in the bigs. In 424 plate appearances, he stuffed the stat sheet with 20 home runs, a .297 batting average, .389 OBP, 60 runs, 62 RBIs and 20 stolen bases.
Obviously, Jones’s offensive production gets a lift from playing in MLB’s most hitter-friendly ballpark, Coors Field. He wasn’t the classic Coors-field mirage, though. Instead, he hit 10 homers with a .288 batting average, .380 OBP, 25 runs, 29 RBIs, eight stolen bases, a 12.2 BB% and 35.7 K% in 213 plate appearances on the road. Jones is a five-category asset.
Oneil Cruz (PIT – SS) – 73.5 ADP
Cruz says he’s 100% healthy after a nearly entirely lost 2023 campaign after injuring his ankle and requiring surgery. The toolsy youngster was a Statcast whiz in 2022. According to Baseball Savant, Cruz was tied for the 16th-highest flyball/line drive exit velocity (97.2 mph) and had the highest maximum exit velocity (122.4 mph) among players with at least 50 batted-ball events in 2022. He’s also tied for the 18th-fastest sprint speed (29.8 ft/sec) among players with at least 10 opportunities since 2022.
The power/speed dynamo had 17 homers and 10 stolen bases for the Pirates in 87 games and 361 plate appearances in 2022. He also had a grotesque 34.9 K%, leading to a .233 batting average. However, his strikeout rate was due for regression since he had an acceptable 82.6 Z-Contact% (85.3 Z-Contact% was the league average in 2022). Cruz also had a palatable 22.7 K% in 247 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2022.
He had only 40 plate appearances before hurting his ankle last season. Nevertheless, the regression was on display. Cruz had a 20.0 K%. Cruz was less passive on pitches in the strike zone and curtailed his bloated strikeout rate. He should find a happy medium between last year’s tiny-sample strikeout rate and the unsustainably high one from 2022. Cruz is an appealing shortstop or middle infield power and speed source.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.