Gamers shouldn’t have absolutes when drafting fantasy baseball teams. Reaching too far for a player will sap any upside they can provide. Still, identifying players to target at or slightly ahead of their average draft position (ADP) because they’re fairly valued or undervalued is prudent. The following 10 hitters are excellent targets, making them must-have selections near their ADPs. Below we’ll dive into a few notable names from the top-10 list.
Must-Have Hitters
Jake Burger (MIA – 3B) – 172.5 ADP
Burger was the 11th pick in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft but had only 225 plate appearances in the majors before last season. Finally, he played a full season in the bigs and delivered massive power numbers. He had 25 homers in 323 plate appearances for the White Sox before slugging nine in 217 for the Marlins after he was traded to Miami.
Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago has a right-handed-batter park factor of 1.132 for homers, and loanDepot park’s is 0.908. The drop in homers wasn’t just a product of downgrading his home ballpark. Instead, Burger drastically reduced his strikeout rate from 31.6% to 21.7%. As a result, his batting average surged from .214 on the White Sox to .303 on the Marlins in 2023.
Burger isn’t a true-talent .300-plus hitter. However, he was more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone and increased his Z-Contact% from 80.8% to 85.2% after the trade. A .250 batting average, give or take a few points based on his BABIP, is a reasonable expectation.
Yet, Burger’s over-the-fence power and RBI potential — if he hits in the heart of Miami’s order — is exciting to snag for this cheap. Among qualified batters last season, Burger had the seventh-highest barrels per plate appearance percentage (10.7 Brls/PA%) and was sixth in maximum exit velocity (118.2 mph) and sixth in flyball/line drive (97.8 mph) exit velocity. His power is legitimate.
Marcell Ozuna (ATL – OF) – 176.5 ADP
Ozuna was the 21st-ranked hitter by VBR last season. Even if he were exceptionally lucky, his ADP would be grossly out of whack with his performance last season. Yet, Ozuna actually underperformed his expected stats. According to FanGraphs, he had a .274 batting average, .284 xBA, .558 slugging and .583 xSLG.
Ozuna had an excellent season in 2020, followed by down years in 2021 and 2022, before cranking his exit velocity and HardHit% up to 91.8 mph and 49.0% last season. The veteran slugger launched 40 homers and had 84 runs and 100 RBIs.
Ozuna has disappeared after massive fantasy seasons before. Still, his batted-ball data last season was elite. Ozuna is the rare low-risk, high-upside pick at his ADP.
Mitch Garver (SEA – C) – 222.5 ADP
The Mariners signed Garver to a two-year contract in the offseason. Seattle already has Cal Raleigh established as their starting catcher. Fortunately, that’s a good thing. Garver shouldn’t have to don the tools of ignorance. He can be Seattle’s full-time designated hitter, with Raleigh as the starting catcher and Seby Zavala as the primary backup, per Roster Resource.
Garver had 19 homers, a .270 batting average, .370 OBP, 12.8 BB%, 23.8 K%, 90.0 mph exit velocity, 20.5-degree launch angle, 12.6 Barrel% and 41.4 HardHit% in 344 plate appearances for the Rangers last season. As a designated hitter, he has an opportunity to exceed 500 plate appearances and smash over 20 homers with a better batting average than the typical 20-plus homer cheap catcher.
Vaughn Grissom (BOS – SS) – 300.3 ADP
Grissom isn’t boxed out of a starting lineup anymore. He was traded to the Red Sox, where he’ll serve as Boston’s everyday second baseman. In 236 plate appearances since reaching MLB in 2022, Grissom has hit five homers with five stolen bases, a .287 batting average, .339 OBP, 5.5 BB% and 20.8 K%.
Grissom had eight homers, 13 stolen bases, a .330 batting average, .419 OBP, 12.0 BB% and 14.1 K% in 468 plate appearances in Triple-A last season, too. He’ll enter the year with shortstop eligibility and gain second base eligibility early this season. Grissom is an arbitrage Stott who will have multi-position eligibility. That’s a rock-solid pick worth securing at least a round ahead of his ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
