We’re getting hot at the right time. We went 7-0 with last week’s selections, and we’re 12-1 in the playoffs so far.
It’s been a nice run after an uneven regular season. There were times during the fall months when Lady Luck frowned upon the selections in this weekly article, tripping us up by a half-yard or casting an injury spell on a player before he could hit an over.
But, hey, sometimes the luck evens out. We recommended the under on Rachaad White’s 55.5-yard rushing total last week, and it seemed as if he was going to sail past that number. But after White reached 55 rushing yards, the Buccaneers went into catch-up mode and stopped running the ball, so our under hit by a half-yard. Phew.
With two games left before the Super Bowl, let’s keep the hot streak going.
I’ll get to this week’s selections in a moment. But first, a recap of the Divisional Round plays …
The wins: Baker Mayfield over 253.5 passing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 92.5 rushing yards, Rachaad White under 55.5 rushing yards, George Kittle over 52.5 receiving yards, Luke Musgrave under 20.5 receiving yards, Sam LaPorta over 34.5 receiving yards, Stefon Diggs under 64.5 receiving yards
The losses: none
Last week: 7-0
Season record: 96-84
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Fitz’s Favorite NFL Conference Championship Round Player Prop Bets
Jared Goff UNDER 259.5 passing yards
The last quarterback to throw for more than 259 yards against the 49ers was Drew Lock, of all people, back in Week 14. The 49ers gave up 232.3 passing yards a game during the regular season. They’re easier to run on than to throw on, ranking 15th in DVOA vs. the run and fourth vs. the pass. A run-heavy gameplan might suit the Lions, who can deploy the thunder-and-lightning RB tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Goff averaged 269.1 passing yards per game during the regular season, but he fared worse on the road (259.4 YPG) and outdoors (252.2 YPG). This is an awfully high bar for Goff to clear, and the under seems like the right percentage play.
David Montgomery OVER 43.5 rushing yards
It’s interesting that Montgomery’s teammate, Jahmyr Gibbs, has the higher rushing total at 47.5 yards. Montgomery out-snapped Gibbs 41-26 last week against the Buccaneers and 30-19 in the Lions’ playoff opener against the Rams. Montgomery also out-carried Gibbs in both games, 10-9 vs. the Buccaneers and 14-8 vs. the Rams. I don’t mind the over for Gibbs either, but with a greater workload and a lower bar to clear, Montgomery is my preferred play. He’ll face a 49ers defense that’s been uncharacteristically vulnerable against the run. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones gashed the Niners for 108 rushing yards last week, and the Arizona trio of James Conner, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter lit up the 49ers for 177 rushing yards in Week 15. The San Francisco run defense ranks 15th in DVOA this season. I wouldn’t make this bet if the Lions were going to be without outstanding center Frank Ragnow, who sprained his ankle and knee last week, but Ragnow is expected to play.
Travis Kelce OVER 61.5 receiving yards
This hasn’t been as fruitful a season for Kelce as we’re accustomed to, but the star tight end is still integral to the Chiefs’ playoff fortunes. He had seven catches for 71 yards in Kansas City’s frigid wild-card win over Miami, and he had five catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns last week in Buffalo. This week, he’ll face a Ravens defense that gave up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends from Week 10 through the end of the regular season. The last star tight end the Ravens faced, San Francisco’s George Kittle, stung Baltimore with 126 receiving yards in Week 16. The Ravens allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers during the regular season, so expect Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to lean heavily on Kelce this Sunday.
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