“Nothing is over until we decide it is!”
— Bluto Blutarsky, “Animal House”
Bluto had a good point. Week 17 wasn’t the end of the fantasy season for everyone. Some of you still have skin in the Week 18 games — two-week championships, toilet bowls, etc. — so I’m rolling out my weekly tiers article one last time.
The final week of the regular season is … um, challenging. Some teams are highly motivated. Others, not so much.
The teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs generally don’t lay down in Week 18. Coaches and players want to go into the offseason on an upbeat note even after a losing season. It’s possible that some of the also-ran teams will pull their starters before the fourth quarter or turn in weak efforts, but such results are atypical.
There are, however, some teams that are completely unmotivated because their playoff seedings have already been determined. These teams are unlikely to play key starters, or they might pull key starters after a series or two.
There are also some teams with uncertain motivation. These teams can’t be counted on to play starters for the entire game, if at all.
Let’s run through these teams …
No motivation
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are assured of a playoff spot and are currently on track for the No. 6 seed in the NFC. They could potentially slide down to the No. 7 seed, but the Rams seem undaunted by that possibility and will rest a number of key starters, including QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams and WR Cooper Kupp.
Uncertain motivation
Detroit Lions: The Lions will be seeded no lower than No. 3 in the NFC but have an outside shot to move up to No. 2. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has said he’s planning to play his starters.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are likely to be the No. 5 seed in the NFC. They could still win the NFC East and improve their seeding, but it would take a win over the Giants and a loss by the Cowboys. A Dallas loss to Washington seems unlikely, with the Cowboys favored by nearly two touchdowns in that game, and Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is being coy about whether he’ll play all of his starters.
OK, let’s dig in.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
- Waiver Wire Picks
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 18 Tiers & Rankings
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Carson Wentz
- Tyler Huntley
- Bryce Young
- Taylor Heinicke
- Sam Darnold
- Sam Howell
- Easton Stick
- Jeff Driskel
- Blaine Gabbert
- Ryan Tannehill
- Trevor Siemian
- Bailey Zappe
Derek Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in four consecutive games and is QB10 in fantasy scoring over that span. He’s not a bad fantasy option this week against Atlanta, which gave up 37 points to Justin Fields and the Bears last weekend. The Falcons have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Feeling lucky? Minnesota’s Nick Mullens has a vast range of possible outcomes this week. The interception-prone Mullens could throw a couple of early INTs and get benched. But Mullens, who’s fearless about making aggressive throws downfield, could also throw for 400 yards and three touchdowns. Mullens has a favorable Week 18 matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and eighth-most passing yards to QBs. Place your bets.
Baker Mayfield is dealing with sore ribs but is expected to play against the Panthers this week. Carolina is allowing a league-low 13.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but Mayfield has been on a roll, averaging 324.3 passing yards over his last three games, with eight touchdown passes over that span. I’m ranking him as a high-end QB2 this week.
The Rams will be starting Carson Wentz in place of Matthew Stafford. Although Wentz’s career has gone wayward in recent years, he might actually be an interesting option for fantasy managers in desperate need of a QB. Wentz isn’t shy about throwing aggressively downfield, and he adds a little bit of rushing value, too.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- James Conner
- Rachaad White
- Kenneth Walker
- Travis Etienne
- Zamir White
- Breece Hall
- Bijan Robinson
- James Cook
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Saquon Barkley
Tier 3
- Aaron Jones
- D’Andre Swift
- Joe Mixon
- Tony Pollard
- Chuba Hubbard
- Devin Singletary
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Jamaal Williams
- Jordan Mason
- David Montgomery
Tier 4
- Jaylen Warren
- Brian Robinson
- Najee Harris
- Derrick Henry
- Roschon Johnson
- Ty Chandler
- Austin Ekeler
- Javonte Williams
- Tyjae Spears
- D’Onta Foreman
Tier 5
Tier 6
- La’Mical Perine
- Khalil Herbert
- Zach Charbonnet
- Melvin Gordon
- Royce Freeman
- Elijah Mitchell
- Gus Edwards
- Justice Hill
- Alexander Mattison
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Zack Moss
As mentioned earlier, Lions head coach Dan Campbell says he’s planning to play his starters this week. It’s possible RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery could get an early rest if Detroit builds a big lead against Minnesota, but fantasy managers are likely to get double-digit touches out of both of the Lions’ RBs. Gibbs had a somewhat disappointing performance in Week 17 (15-43-0 rushing and one catch for zero yards), but he’s been RB5 in half-point PPR scoring over the last four weeks. Gibbs will be facing a Vikings defense that he trucked for 15-80-2 rushing and 4-20-0 receiving in Week 16. Montgomery has logged double-digit carries in eight consecutive games, and he’s scored touchdowns in each of his last two games.
Aaron Jones has played only 10 games and 305 offensive snaps this year, so some people may have forgotten just how good he is when healthy. Since coming back from an MCL injury in Week 15, Jones has 54-300-0 rushing and 6-34-0 receiving over his last three games, making him RB18 in half-point PPR scoring over that span despite not scoring any touchdowns. Jones has a tough matchup Sunday vs. a Bears run defense that ranks No. 4 in DVOA and has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs. I’m slotting in Jones at RB14 despite the difficult matchup, putting faith in a dynamic runner who’s gone over 100 rushing yards in each of his last two games.
Alvin Kamara sustained what is believed to be a high-ankle sprain in Week 17 and seems unlikely to suit up in Week 18. With Kamara exiting early last week, Jamaal Williams got a season-high 19 carries for 58 yards against the Buccaneers. Not normally much of a pass catcher, Williams also had four receptions for 13 yards. Williams could be in for a huge workload against the Falcons, whose run defense hasn’t been especially good since big DT Grady Jarrett tore his ACL in late October. I’m ranking Williams as a midrange RB2.
D’Onta Foreman missed the Bears’ Week 15 game for personal reasons, then was a healthy scratch in Week 16. There’s little reason to think that Foreman, who’s about to become an unrestricted free agent, will be back for the regular-season finale. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson split snaps nearly 50/50 last week in Chicago’s lopsided win over Atlanta, but Herbert was the main man in the Bears’ running game, carrying 18 times for 124 yards and a touchdown. He’s a good play this week against a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against the run and has given up the 12th-most fantasy points to RBs. Roschon isn’t a bad option either. He had 7-21-1 rushing and 3-38-0 receiving against the Falcons last week. I’m ranking Herbert RB23 and Roschon RB30.
Derrick Henry had just 12-42-0 rushing against the Texans last week, playing 42% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. He’s on the verge of becoming a free agent, so the Titans probably aren’t going to work him especially hard this week. I’m ranking Henry RB27 this week, and I have his rookie backup, Tyjae Spears, at RB33. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Spears got more touches than Henry this week against the Jaguars.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Nico Collins
- D.J. Moore
- D.K. Metcalf
- Davante Adams
- Mike Evans
- Michael Pittman
- Chris Olave
- Ja’Marr Chase
Tier 3
- Stefon Diggs
- Cooper Kupp
- Calvin Ridley
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Puka Nacua
- George Pickens
- Chris Godwin
- Brandin Cooks
- Garrett Wilson
Tier 4
- Jayden Reed
- Terry McLaurin
- Tyler Lockett
- Drake London
- Jakobi Meyers
- Jordan Addison
- Adam Thielen
- Demarcus Robinson
- Diontae Johnson
- Romeo Doubs
- Gabe Davis
Tier 5
- Rashid Shaheed
- Darius Slayton
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Greg Dortch
- Joshua Palmer
- Christian Watson
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Courtland Sutton
- Alex Erickson
- Josh Downs
- Zay Jones
- Julio Jones
- D.J. Chark
- Jerry Jeudy
- Curtis Samuel
- Demario Douglas
Tier 6
- Cedrick Wilson
- Brandon Johnson
- Michael Wilson
- Josh Reynolds
- Parker Washington
- Alec Pierce
- Quentin Johnston
- K.J. Osborn
- Khalil Shakir
Tier 7
- Kalif Raymond
- DeVante Parker
- Tyler Boyd
- Rondale Moore
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Cedric Tillman
- Tre Tucker
- Deebo Samuel
- Brandon Aiyuk
If you’re thinking about using Ja’Marr Chase this week, you’re going to have to monitor his status carefully. Chase played through a sprained AC joint last week against the Chiefs and had 3-41-0 on seven targets. He practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, which suggests that he might play against the Browns on Sunday. But let’s face it: The Bengals have little incentive to push the envelope with their star receiver. There’s always big upside with Chase whenever he suits up, but his Week 18 floor is much less sturdy than usual.
It’s hard to fade a player as accomplished as Stefon Diggs, but the Bills’ star receiver has been mired in a slump for the last month. Diggs has produced fewer than 50 receiving yards in four consecutive games and hasn’t scored any touchdowns during that stretch. Since Week 14, Diggs has been WR66 in half-point PPR scoring. It’s possible Diggs sees a lot of Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey, one of the top cover men in the league, when the Bills face the Dolphins on Sunday night. I have Diggs ranked WR14, and he’s only ranked that highly because there are a bunch of good WRs who’ll be held out this weekend. If Ramsey shadows Diggs, Gabe Davis might draw more targets than usual. I’m ranking Davis as a midrange WR3, but his potential upside is appealing.
We have to just ride the wave with George Pickens at this point, don’t we? Pickens has been wildly inconsistent this season. He had three 100-yard performances in Pittsburgh’s first six games. Pickens then had an eight-game stretch during which he averaged 39.3 receiving yards per game and scored only one touchdown. Over the last two weeks, Pickens has put up stat lines of 4-195-2 and 7-131-0. Ever since the Steelers made Mason Rudolph their starting quarterback, Pickens has gone berserk. I suppose it’s worth betting on Pickens again this week against the unmotivated Ravens. I’m ranking him WR18.
Quiet for much of the season, Darius Slayton has produced 11-259-2 over the last three weeks, tying him with Justin Jefferson for WR12 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring over that stretch. This week, Slayton gets to face an Eagles pass defense that has given up more fantasy points and receptions to WRs than any other team in the league. Because he isn’t a high-volume receiver, I can’t get Slayton higher than WR32 in my rankings. But with a big play or two, he could easily turn in a WR1-caliber performance this week.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Cole Kmet
- Dalton Kincaid
- Taysom Hill
- Kyle Pitts
- Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Tyler Conklin
- Pat Freiermuth
- Cade Otton
- Logan Thomas
- Noah Gray
Tier 4
- Tanner Hudson
- Jonnu Smith
- Noah Fant
- Mike Gesicki
- Johnny Mundt
- Robert Tonyan
- Isaiah Likely
- Kylen Granson
- Dawson Knox
With Luke Musgrave sidelined by a lacerated kidney over the last six weeks, Tucker Kraft has racked up 23-281-2 on 30 targets, making him the TE7 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. On Sunday afternoon, Kraft will face a Chicago defense that has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points and fifth-most receptions to TEs this season.
A virtual nonfactor for much of the season, Juwan Johnson has caught fire down the stretch. Johnson has found the end zone in three straight games, and over the last two weeks he’s had 12-138-2 on 19 targets. This week, Johnson faces a Falcons defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to TEs. With a lot of good tight ends sitting out this week, Johnson ranks as a midrange TE1.
The Chargers’ passing game is a mess at the moment. WRs Keenan Allen (heel) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) were both out last week, and there’s little incentive for the Chargers to play them in the regular-season finale. With the two receivers sidelined in Week 17, Gerald Everett had a team-high nine targets last week against the Broncos. Everett finished with only four receptions for 31 yards, but Everett could get another big batch of targets Sunday vs. the Chiefs. I have him ranked TE9.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio