Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways: Aaron Jones, Wan’Dale Robinson, Travis Kelce (Week 18)

Hello and welcome to the Week 18 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

One game that I’m avoiding in DFS this week is the divisional matchup between the Rams and 49ers. This game total currently sits at 42.5 points and features two teams that move at a snail’s pace. This season, the 49ers rank dead last in neutral-script pace and no-huddle rate while ranking 29th in total plays per game. Meanwhile, the Rams have continued to play slower and slower relative to expectation and don’t have a game in which they’ve played faster than expected since Week 6. The Rams also finally broke their 10-game streak with a negative PROE mark this past week, so it’s very likely they revert back to playing more ground-and-pound offense in the final game of the season. While both offenses have been among the top 10 most efficient in terms of EPA per play, I expect that San Francisco will rest its starters with the number one seed locked up. We could also see Los Angeles rest starters later in the game as they already have a playoff spot locked up but are just fighting to hold the six seed (which they earn if they win). Stud running back Kyren Williams is the only player I’d consider playing if I had to.
- Action: fade Rams vs. 49ers in DFS

Team Pass Rates

After trending towards passing a bit less since they peaked at a 15.8% PROE in Week 8, the Cowboys have bounced back with PROE marks of 5.1% and 8.5%. Unfortunately, this hasn’t helped Tony Pollard. Though he’s run a route on 59% of dropbacks this year his 17% targets per route run rate ranks well outside the top 20 running backs. Pollard has been an inefficient rusher this year — his 35% rush yards over expected success rate is 12th-worst among qualifying running backs — so I would expect Dallas to continue to lean on Dak Prescott and the passing game as their primary means of moving the ball. The passing game is all that I want a part of in playoff best ball tournaments or DFS.
- Action: fade Tony Pollard

Running Back Usage

In a lost season, Breece Hall has been one of the lone bright spots (at least at times) for the New York Jets. The Dalvin Cook signing really only made sense as a way to ease Hall into an increased workload as he continued to recover from his ACL tear, but he will finish as a top-10 running back in Half-PPR leagues. A large boost to Hall’s value was his involvement in the passing game. In the first nine games of the season, Hall averaged just 3.8 targets per game on a 37% routes run rate, but that increased to an absurd 8.4 targets per game on a 56% routes run rate. That target volume won’t sustain itself next season, but it at least highlights the ceiling that Hall offers since his rushing efficiency this year was slightly underwhelming. Though the quarterback situation in New York will likely dictate his ADP, he should be drafted as a top-8 running back in 2024 drafts, if not higher.
- Action: buy Breece Hall in 2024.
The Packers’ backfield has quickly switched hands as Aaron Jones has returned to full health while AJ Dillon continues to manage a thumb injury. While Dillon has played each of the last two games, he’s totaled just a 17% snap share. He has gotten seven carries in both games with four of them being green-zone touches, though he hasn’t been able to convert on them. Jones’ workload has been managed a bit more lately as his snap shares have all fallen between 50-60% in the last three weeks. But, his routes run rate has risen in each of the last four weeks, topping out at a season-high 53% against the Vikings on New Year’s Eve. Jones is still the more explosive back and I expect Green Bay will continue to treat him like the RB1 in the offense for as long as their season lasts.
- Action: buy Aaron Jones, fade AJ Dillon

Wide Receiver Usage

We’re seeing a bit of a second-half breakout for Wan’Dale Robinson, the Giants’ second-year wide receiver. Since Week 11, Robinson has been below an 80% routes run rate just once (a mark he only hit once in the first 10 weeks of the season). He’s also being targeted at a high rate with a team-high 19% targets per route run rate over that span thanks to a solid 22% target share. Also getting more work in New York is Darius Slayton, who has run a route on at least 88% of dropbacks in each of the last four games. With a 14.3-yard average depth of target over that span, his weeks have been more boom or bust, but he’s scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Tyrod Taylor starting makes these options much more viable and New York also faces the Eagles this week, who allow targets to wide receivers at the highest rate in the league.
- Action: target (pun intended) Giants wide receivers in DFS

Tight End Usage

In case it wasn’t plainly obvious, Travis Kelce is a shell of his former self. Since Week 13, Kelce has had a target share of over 20% just once and he had reached that mark in all but one game in the first 12 weeks of the season. More concerning is that his current 6.7-yard average depth would be a low mark in a season in which Patrick Mahomes has been his quarterback. You would think that with the struggles the Chiefs have had at receiver, Kelce’s usage would be rising, but it’s done the opposite. He’s still running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks, but it seems like he’s being used more as a decoy as rookie Rashee Rice becomes Mahomes’ favorite target.
- Action: sell Travis Kelce